Classic (8:44pm)
$6,000,000
1-1/4 Miles – Grade 1 – 3+ year olds
The Breeder’s Cup Classic is your main event. In this race, it is capped at 14 total starters. This year feels more-wide open than years past. Quite a few horses have also skipped this race, citing rest for next season. It’s unfortunate that Maximum Security missed preps to this race and was found racing last week. Tacitus is another one that decided to rest, which connections upset at how consistent he is at hitting the board but never winning. We will get to see Bob Baffert’s entry, McKinzie, which will probably go off as your favorite despite being lifetime 0-2 at this distance. Code of Honor will be present, trying to cement his legacy and possibly win a Horse of the Year award. We have a few pretenders that won “Win and You’re In” series preps, which you’ll have to navigate through. And the treat of the race is having Elate show up here. It’s been 10 years since our last female has won this race. Elate loves the distance, but we need to see if she has what it takes to beat the boys. Shes struggled in her own division against Midnight Bisou but has always been right there. We may get a nice price on her. War of Will is one of the only horses to run all 3 legs of the Triple Crown and will make an appearance in this race.
1. Math Wizard 30/1 [13: 3-2-3] $860,623
Drawing the rail position, Math Wizard is a bit of a surprise to get to this race. At 31/1 odds in the Pennsylvania Derby, he was able to beat some of the top horses and springboard his way into this race. Ricardo Santana Jr is aboard this 30/1 longshot that possesses a top speed figure of 113. After being claimed by Saffie Joseph in January, this horse has steadily been getting better and better. While I half-ass liked Math Wizard in the PA Derby, and really loved him before Max scratched, I do think it’s a bit of a stretch for this one to win the Classic. This would be a monumental upset that hasn’t happened in many years. He is one of 4 total closers in a race without a real speed leader. It’s always hard for closers to win a race if the speed horses aren’t there to tire the rest of the field. Even still, if you want a price horse that’s improving, you can use underneath.
2. Seeking The Soul 20/1 [29: 7-6-7] $3,354,153
Seeking The Soul is the top money-earner in this field over his career. Most of that can be attributed to this horse’s success in Kentucky. Often joked about in horse circles is the fact that Seeking The Soul can’t win outside of Kentucky. While it should be an extremely tall order for this horse to get to the winner’s circle in California on Saturday, I do think it’s worth noting that of the four closers in the field this horse holds the fastest speed figure at 122. I will refer back to my comments on Math Wizard and say this is not a pace scenario where we should see a closer win this race, but holding the top speed as a closer is a nice perk. Brian Hernandez Jr., who won this race in 2012 at Santa Anita, gets the mount. Finish Exotics
3. Owendale 15/1 [12: 5-1-2] $958,725
A mile and a quarter is a pretty far distance for most horses in racing. Owendale, while being sort of a sneaky decent horse, ran a mile and a quarter and had a fifth-place finish in the Travers. He was noticeably tired, which tells me he will struggle in this race without a pace to stalk. Also, you must factor the change up top. Regular rider Florent Geroux was hurt about two weeks ago, so we’ll see Javier Castellano aboard. Castellano hasn’t won a Breeders Cup Classic since 2014. Too many boxes left unchecked for me to use this horse. Toss
4. War Of Will 20/1 [13: 4-1-2] $1,615,569
War of Will is probably the most recognized name of the 3-year-old crop this year as he has run in more races than any of the other Triple Crown competitors. I have been very critical of War of Will and I let him beat us in The Preakness. Since then he has finished off the board each time, except when he came 3rd in the PA derby field of 5 (and Math Wizard 31/1 won…). But besides just not liking this horse, I have data to back it up! We go back to the distance of this race! 1-1/2 mile Belmont, he was meatballs and finished 9th. After that, we had the 1-1/8 mile Jim Dandy, where he faded and finished 5th. The lack of stamina is a huge tell that this horse should finish far back. Toss
5. Yoshida 8/1 [17: 5-4-1] $2,445,770
Yoshida is our 3rd closer of the race with a top speed figure of 116. It’s amazing if you look at Yoshida’s career and see not only his dominant wins but also the races he has shown up to. This horse is as traditional of a closer as it gets. Without quick early fractions, this horse has struggled. He is winless in his last 6 starts, but recently finished second to McKinzie in the Whitney and third in the Woodward. Yoshida gets a new rider as Joel Rosario was named McKinzie’s jockey. Fate would have it work out that Mike Smith, McKinzie’s ex-jockey, is now on top of Yoshida. Mike Smith is the all-time leader in Breeders Cup Wins and has won this race 4 times. It’s tough to exclude Yoshida from a tri or super bet, but I don’t expect Yoshida to be your winner. Use under with caution.
6. Elate 6/1 [18: 7-7-2] $2,328,775
One of the top storylines you’ll hear on Saturday will be about Zenyatta. It’s been 10 years since Zenyatta, a female, ran in the Breeders Cup and beat the boys. Elate has a shot to do it for the second time in history. And call me a sucker for a narrative, I think there’s a strong possibility that the girl with Jose Ortiz aboard wearing Confederate Gray and Royal Blue silks will be near the front at the wire. Elate owns a perfect record at this distance. While the big question is: Can she hang with the boys? I say why not? She is the class of the field, has the power and tactical speed needed to win this race. With a perfectly timed attack, she will be in the mix. In 18 starts, she has only been off the board in 2 starts. Win Contender
7. Higher Power 6/1 [14: 5-1-5] $836,648
Higher Power is a bit puzzling opening at 6/1 ML odds. This horse has only one signature win, and it is the “Win and You’re In” Pacific Classic at Del Mar in August. Winning that race gave him an automatic berth into the Classic. In September, he tried his hand at better horses and found himself finishing third by 7 ½ lengths. My estimation is pointing towards this horse not getting much play, thus driving his odds higher. The only positive note I can list right now is that the trainer, John Sadler, was the winning trainer of last year’s Classic. I’m going to keep playing with my numbers, but for now, this horse is a hard pass.
8. McKinzie 3/1 [13: 7-5-0] $2,298,560
McKinzie’s resume is ridiculous. 13 career races and TWELVE of them were first or second-place finishes. The only one off the board? Travel back to 2018, where McKinzie was asked to go a mile and a quarter in the Classic. Yes, this very race a year back. He finished horrendously in 12th of 14. It also needs to be mentioned he was the second betting choice. Despite the resume, McKinzie is 0-2 at this distance. In his other time trying, he led down the stretch and fizzled out to come second. The mystery of this race will be the Jockey change. We don’t know how Joel Rosario is going to ride McKinzie, but it would be silly to leave him off tickets. While I don’t expect him to win, he should still be treated as a contender of sorts.
9. Mongolian Groom 12/1 [16: 3-2-3] $579,141
Mongolian Groom had a “Win and You’re In” berth to this race in September. While it’s interesting that this horse was able to beat McKinzie (your morning-line favorite), it seems highly unlikely that this horse factors at all in this race. While the horse gained an automatic berth, the connections never nominated this horse as a foal, thus having to decide if they wanted to pay a $200,000 late fee. The connections did so, which means they anticipate at least a 4th place finish for this horse to earn about $300,000. If they thought there was no chance at all, they would have skipped the race. I will be digging into workouts this week, but for now, treat this horse as a far exotic play.
10. Vino Rosso 4/1 [14: 5-1-3] $1,503,125
Vino Rosso is an interesting play. I put him as my early co-top choice with Elate in this race. This horse was completely retrained as a 4-year-old, going from a closer to a full-blown early stalker. That change has made him a vastly improved version of himself. With the riding change, Vino Rosso has crossed the finish line first both times when running a mile and a quarter. Irad Ortiz keeps the mount after winning (and then being DQ for bumping) in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. His old regular rider, Johnny V, chose Code of Honor. It will be interesting to see if Irad takes Vino Rosso to the front, similar to what he did in the Jockey Club. The Pick
11. Code of Honor 4/1 [9: 5-2-1] $2,298,320
At a quick pace in the Travers, Code of Honor was able to close for a victory, showing that a mile and a quarter is not a problem for him. In his next bout, he was beaten by Vino Rosso, although he was placed up to first due to bumping in the stretch. I have been saying it for a couple of races, but Code of Honor should not win this race. He comes in great form, but he has been beaten in different ways in his career. You always look back and see who a horse has run against and won or lost to. Code of Honor does not have an impressive list looking back at it. Tacitus can’t buy a win to save his life, so is that a good win? Not really. Vino showed he could win if he didn’t bump. Go to the Florida Derby earlier this year when he finished 3rd to an actual pacesetter in Maximum Security. Look at the KY Derby when Maximum Security set the pace again and crossed the line first and Code of Honor was back a couple of horses. I let Code of Honor beat me in the Traverse because of the allure of Tacitus winning. I made a pretty bold statement (see below) in September before the Jockey Club race, that Code should do nothing in the Breeders, and while that was before all of the scratches, I still think this horse doesn’t win. Use Underneath
There’s no real reason for this tweet but I think Code of Honor is a fraud, even if he wins this race today. He had his best race at the Travers. Before that he never beat anyone worth discussing. Small field today, but I’ll bet anyone he does nothing in the Breeders.
— Ricky Fuller (@splitxserenade) September 28, 2019
