By Ricky Fuller 6/6/19
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The 151st running of the Belmont Stakes is set to take place on Saturday 6/8 at 6:37pm ET. We have a confirmed field of ten contenders, which is average of what we would normally see here. Of the contenders, 5 of them raced in the Kentucky Derby this year. 4 of those took the Preakness off, which is an important stat to note. Horses that have ran in the Derby and skip the Preakness normally do well in the Belmont. The only horse that will be racing in all 3 races is War of Will, your Preakness winner. Ask any trainer or horse player and they will tell you Belmont Park is one of the trickiest tracks to handicap. The 1-1/2 mile track is tricky. If the jockey sends their horse off too quickly, they are normally gassed at the far turn. Closers RARELY do well at the Belmont, mainly from being too far behind and not being able to rally for the win. Belmont is a track that requires a precision plan of attack, which is easier said than done. When handicapping this race, you will find favor among stalkers/off the pace running styles. Very, very rarely will you see a pacesetter win this race. Below is my analysis on the racers. I will preface it by saying that in the last two ‘big’ races, we have seen some real wild events take place. In the derby, we had the DQ. In the Preakness, we had a presser lose his mount at the start and completely shake up the expected nature of that race. In this race, I fully expect the 1 horse, Joevia, to be the pace setter for a little less than half the race. We should see War of Will exert himself from the outside, and press Joevia, which will hurt War of Will in my opinion. Intrepid Heart may also press, but I feel is outclassed here. Tax and Spinoff will be near the middle of the pack. Ive always liked Tax, but has struggled against Tacitus. Tacitus, in my opinion, will be the one to beat. The Japanese horse, Master Fencer, makes his return to American Racing and showed BLAZING speed closing in the Derby. Sir Winston is normally pegged as a deep closer as well. He is my dark horse. Only been getting better and can go this distance.
1. Joevia (30/1)
Joevia should set the pace of the Belmont Stakes. This lightly raced horse has shown some promise, but the distance is what will prove difficult. In 5 career starts, Joevia has 2 wins, 2 seconds and 1 unplaced. The wins were against nobodies and the losses were against Racers you’ve seen in the Derby (Tacitus and Tax) and Preakness (alwaysmining). I find it hard to believe that a horse that couldn’t win his preps, and hasn’t shown improvement, will suddenly expose Belmont’s mile and a half. He wont. PASS.
2. Everfast (12/1)
I will admit it. His second place finish in the Preakness 3 weeks ago shocked me. But let’s not forget the scheme of the race changed when a horse tipped his jockey off. When that sort of X factor happens, everything I thought the race would do changed completely and is why Bourbon War couldn’t close. Back to Everfast. While there is no question about his pedigree going the distance, I still am not sold on him. Im not a fan of his trainer and this horse has literally never shown anyone anything until a couple weeks ago. Do what you will with him- Its your money after all- but I will not entertain this horse on my ticket. Pass.
3. Master Fencer (8/1)
I was proven wrong about Master Fencer in the Derby. He played from deep and closed in almost record speed. Belmonts track is said to be similar to Japanese tracks, so the horse should feel like home-away-from-home. There was a stumble in workouts leading up to the Belmont, but everything has come back okay. It’s hard to judge a horse that has one race in America, as the talent pool is different overseas. In one race in the derby, this horse looks like it should be able to finish some exotics in the very least. I don’t think he will win, but if playing superfecta or trifecta bets, I would use underneath.
4. Tax (15/1)
I have already said I love the horse. Im worried that he may not fire again like at the Kentucky Derby. Theres not a question in my mind that he can go the distance. Looking at his pedigree, he can be linked to horses that have won G1 races at marathon distances. He will be off the pace, and in perfect striking distance. My love for this horse wants him to be better than he has shown us. He has more pros than cons. I like him and will be using him underneath.
5. Bourbon War (12/1)
I tend to think the Preakness was more of an anomaly than anything else. Bourbon War had blinkers on for the first time ever. He also ran close to the pace rather than his slow steady closer style. It was all very weird, and clearly didn’t work. As I stated in the open, traditional closers do not fare well at Belmont. Bourbon War is as traditional as it gets. The only way it works, is if he has a perfect trip and Mike Smith, who is now on top of him, times it perfectly (which is extremely hard to do). If he does anything at all, it will be underneath. Can Finish Exotics.
6. Spinoff (15/1)
I believe I called Spinoff a long shot and he followed that mold by underperforming in the Derby. Skipping the Preakness and heading to the Belmont is a pro, but his pedigree lacks anything that should scream for him to do well. He proved what he was in the derby, to me. Had one good race in his career, but I don’t think he can hang with the top horses. Pass.
7. Sir Winston (12/1)
A horse that most people have never heard of, with high(er) opening odds probably shouldn’t be my personal co-favorite in a race. But its 2019 and I’m getting weird. This horse is going to come off as a surprise since it hasn’t run in any huge races or taken down any big names. If you go watch any of his races leading up to this race, you’ll see a horse that was bred for this distance. In the Tampa Bay Derby, he didn’t look like he was ready to run until the race was heading towards the wire. There is a lot of horse in this one. Let’s also mention his damsire won this race in 2005! I am hoping that only the DFS Karma community reads this and we keep his odds around 12-1 as this is our price horse for the race. High Value Win Contender
8. Intrepid Heart (10/1)
Blinkers will be added to Intrepid Heart to keep focused. A lot of players will use this horse higher than deserved because pedigree says he can run the distance. Being the son of Tapit, does not automatically make you a great horse. It just means you have a bloodline of excellent Stamina. Having Stamina does not make you faster. I just really don’t like how slow this horse is. MAYBE 4th for this horse. 4th or worse.
9. War of Will (2/1)
As I stated earlier, War of Will should press the pace set by Joevia. Depending how fast Joevia goes could possibly burn War of Will. The pedigree here is puzzling since you can trace way up and find connections to over a mile winners. Im looking as his direct connection, however. His sire was a sprinter. We haven’t seen War of Will go far enough against great competition. I keep counting him out and he keeps proving he should be there. I do have an issue here. You will get no return on investment if you bet two favorites. I am hoping, for my sake, that Joevia runs War of Will completely out of this race. Contender, but I will not use him for the win. (I actually don’t even like him to finish top 3).
10. Tacitus (9/5)
My other favorite horse is the morning line favorite. Tacitus was bred for the long distance. This horse, also by Tapit, has power, races middle of the pack, and has consistent speed. Tapit has produced three of the past five Belmont winners, so you cant overlook Tapits best bloodline in this race in Tacitus. He is slightly faster than Spinoff, and I wish he was quicker. That can still be proved out. If he gets quicker in this race, he will not lose the race. The horse to beat.
Rickys Bets:
I will be playing this race differently than the other two stakes race. With 10 horses, you still will have prices, assuming the 2 favorites don’t hit the board. I am looking for value plays, and will be betting the following:
$10 Win/Place/Show – 7 (This is strictly a hopeful bet, and I am assuming he will stay around 12/1)
$25 Win / Place – 10 (This would be my most confident bet) $1.00 Trifecta #1 – 7,10/3,4,5,7,10/3,4,5,7,10 = $24 total (I didn’t use War of Will, strictly based on price)
$0.50 Trifecta #2 – 7,9,10/7,9,10/3,4,5,7,9,10 = $12 total (This uses War of Will. Smaller payout if hit)
