Tristan’s NBA Game Theory (11/17)

Welcome to Tristan’s NBA Game Theory (11/17)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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A ton of news to get through tonight in an 11 game slate so please please please, don’t forget to check for updates either on twitter or in our discord channel where news updates are posted and in our premium channel, breakdown of the news! With that out of the way, let’s get to it.

Guards

Cash

First guard I’m looking at for cash games is Patty Mills, if he does get the start again tonight. Joe Harris is still out with an injury and Patty Mills has taken his spot in the starting line-up. This works because I believe he can match up with Darius Garland on the Cleveland side. He didn’t have a great shooting night by all means last night and BKN is looking to bounce back after an embarrassing loss at home last night vs the Warriors. He’s very cheap on DK at 3.5k with a high floor if he’s starting, and a pretty high ceiling if his shot falls.

Without Lebron James, Talen Horten Tucker sports a 26% usage rate. He is definitely a favorite of Frank Vogel, and was thrusted into the starting lineup as soon as he became healthy from an injury in which he was out for about a few weeks. This game against the Bucks is the 2nd highest O/U of tonight’s 11 game slate, and for good reason as the Lakers rank 2nd in pace on the season and the Bucks at 12th. THT will be looked upon to carry a scoring load in this game as well as retain his role as a playmaker/ball handler. My only concern here is a blowout.

With Luka Doncic out, his 32% usage rate will have to spread out to the rest of the Mavericks. One player who gets one of the biggest bumps in my opinion is Jalen Brunson. He’s going to be fairly chalky tonight, so he could be a fade in GPPs..but in cash I’m not sure how you get off of him. He has taken a good leap this year in all accumulated stats, as well as good jump in minutes. With Luka ruled out, he should see even more run as well as more usage. Brunson was already scoring around 25+ DK pts with Luka in the line-up, so it’s only logical that his ceiling is raised with Luka being out.

GPP

Tyrese Haliburton has been showing out this season, and you can see that in his L10 game average. He is priced at 5.9k with a floor of about 25+, and a ceiling of 40+. He is averaging 33.15 DK pts his last 10 games and he gets a fast competitive game with an average defense against the Timberwolves tonight. He is a great play for cash as well, but there are so many cash plays tonight at cheap prices that I’m plugging him here for GPPs because he will be on the lower owned side tonight. He is great at accumulating all sorts of peripheral stats, from rebounds to assists to steals, while being able to put the ball in the hole as well. This game ranks as the highest O/U of the slate, so expect some high scorers from this game!

Forward

Cash

Chimezie Metu has produced every game since being thrusted into the starting lineup, and I don’t see why that would stop here. The Kings as of late have been playing a bit better, and this might attribute to that. He sports a 21% usage rate in the starting lineup, and gives the Kings another scoring threat. The Wolves currently are the worst team in the NBA in regards to rebounding, so him and Richaun Holmes should eat tonight in that category. This SAC vs MIN game is one of the highest totals as the Kings rank 8th in pace, while the Timberwolves are 9th. He’s a valid cash option and a valid value option tonight.

The Cavs will be missing both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley tonight, and Kevin Love will be returning but I believe everyone is unsure about how many minutes he will be getting in his return. His “injury tag” is conditioning after missing time being out b/c of covid protocols, so that is what’s concerning. Because of this, Cedi Osman looks to be in line for a lot of minutes against a BKN team that is known for going on the smaller side regarding their lineup. Dean Wade is definitely still present, so you can see him get about 30 minutes tonight as well but Cedi Osman is a producer in the scoring category, assist category, and can rack up a few steals here and there. He’s very cheap tonight with a high floor and a high ceiling, shown by his 26 point explosion last game.

GPP

I’m adding this man in the GPP section only because this game has blowout potential, as Phoenix is ranked 6th in defense and the Mavericks are missing their most important player in Luka Doncic tonight. Kristaps Porzingis sports a 30.7% usage rate without Doncic in the lineup this season, which is a bump up from 29.3%. The total is a bit low which of course worries me, and the spread is -8 1/2, which isn’t bad on paper but the game could get ugly quick. If you do play Porzingis tonight, you’ll likely play Jalen Brunson and our other option in the GPP category for center plays.

Kevin Love is going to be the other GPP forward for tonight just because Cleveland is missing about 3 big men tonight, with 2 of the 3 being a huge part of this team. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are going to be out for today’s game, leaving Kevin Love, Tacko Fall (not sure if he will actually play unless it blows out), and Ed Davis as their bigs. BKN isn’t known to go big by all means, which bodes well for Kevin Love but he has not played a game since Oct 30th due to COVID protocols. He actually has an “injury tag” which is “conditioning” so it is unknown how many minutes he will get tonight. If he does get the minutes though I can see him smashing this 5.3k price tag, with the rebound opportunities popping through the roof.

ALSO SEE: Dean Wade at near minimum (3.2k)

Center

Cash

With news that Robert Williams will be missing this game against the Hawks, the Celtics are going to need a big man to match up with Atlanta’s bigs in John Collins and Clint Capela. We should see Al Horford move to the C position, with increased rebounding % and usage %. He is a little pricey at 7.5, but in a small sample size, Horford is averaging more rebounds, assists, and blocks with Williams out of the lineup. Atlanta is currently one of the worst defensive rating teams ranking at 27th on the season, so I do believe that this game should be fairly close.

GPP

I am going to put this man in the GPP category just because of the blowout risk that this game brings. I also think this player can be paired up with the GPP option for FWD, because if this game stays close it will be because of Kristaps Porzingis. With that being said, DeAndre Ayton is very cheap tonight especially after averaging 41.75 in his L4 games, with the 5th game being a blowout (so I’m not adding it in the average). Ayton is 6.2k tonight which is completely cheap for his recent production. The Mavericks are missing Luka Doncic tonight which could make the game a lot less competitive, but if it stays close I believe Ayton’s upside for this price is insane.

 

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