Tristan’s NBA Game Theory (11/10)

Welcome to Tristan’s NBA Game Theory (11/10)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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A ton of news to get through tonight in a FAT 13 game slate so please please please, don’t forget to check for updates either on twitter or in our discord channel where news updates are posted and in our premium channel, breakdown of the news! With that out of the way, let’s get to it.

Guards

Cash

First things foremost, Denver and Indiana. Caris Levert will be out for today’s match-up, and Malcolm Brogdon will be back from missing a few games, which puts Brogdon in the same spot he was at when Caris was out. This also bumps up Domantas Sabonis, who performed better with Brogdon in surprisingly. I am definitely considering Brogdon in cash but will be cautious as he is returning from an injury…so this can be moved to the GPP section but if Brogdon is completely healthy, he is definitely in play for cash tonight.

Another player from that game that will be getting a huge bump – Will Barton on the Nuggets. With Michael Porter Jr out with a back issue and Nikola Jokic being suspended a game for his shove on Markieff Morris, usage opens up EVERYWHERE. Without MPJ and Jokic on the floor this season, he has a 25.7% usage rate. His shot volume increases heavily and the ball is in his hands a lot more to play make. I’m not only considering Barton, but Monte Morris as well, who will have to pick up some more ball handling duties and scoring duties as well. 

Another guard that I am definitely considering in cash, Ricky Rubio. He holds a 24% usage rate on the season, and that can only go up with the Cavaliers missing Collin Sexton for the foreseeable future. This match-up isn’t that ideal pace wise and the Wizards are 5th in defensive rating this season, but the Cavs have been playing so well that they can definitely keep this game close and competitive. 

GPP

Cade Cunningham is extremely attractive on both sites, particularly due to his usage rate. He is sporting a 30.2% usage rate currently and though his FPPM is below 1, he has yet to have a game where he is consistently shooting well. This puts his upside really high and keeps his floor seemingly high as well. He’s probably going to have a blow-up game sooner or later, and I’d rather catch it than miss it. 

Like I mentioned, Monte Morris is definitely ini play tonight being cheap on both sites as well. Nuggets are missing 3 of their key players, with 2 playing on the season so of course Monte has been starting at PG for Jamal Murray but with Michael Porter Jr and Nikola Jokic out now, he has so much ball handling duties to take over as well as scoring duties. 

ALSO: Darius Garland! 

Forward

Cash

Frank Kaminsky has been a popular play ever since DeAndre Ayton has been ruled out, and today should be no different. Both him and Javale McGee are the back-ups to Ayton, with Kaminsky being the one who produces more and meshes with the team more as well, with spacing out toward the 3, as well as his role in the PnR (he can pick n pop!) In a plus match-up against Portland at a cheap price tag, he is definite value tonight with high upside. 

Jeff/JaMychal Green will be super popular today because of the injuries to the Nuggets and the suspension of Nikola Jokic. Jeff Green was the starter for Michael Porter Jr last game and he played a solid 33 minutes in that game WITH Jokic in. Without Jokic, his usage numbers go up and I can see both Jeff and JaMychal run together in the same line-up at some point. In fact, we could probably see both start tonight. JaMychal is their other big man (other than BolBol) and directly started for Jokic or was his back-up during the season. Both are around minimum which could help you fit your studs in on this 13 game slate. 

GPP

Seeing that Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton will continue to miss games, Bobby Portis is in play if he starts again (which should be happening). He played 35 mins against the 76ers yesterday which shows that he is ready for huge minutes off of his injury/rest in the beginning of the year. A little revenge game against the Knicks (y’all remember that) but tough match-up against the defensive minded Knicks, this should be a competitive match-up where Bobby should see 30+ mins again. 

 

Center

Cash

Jusuf Nurkic is on a b2b where he only played 27 (which is in-fact high for him) but put up 43.25 DK pts. His upside seems capped by his minutes, but his production for his price is high. He can definite put another 40 spot up here against Frank Kaminsky and Javale McGee, both two sub-par defenders with non-dominate paint presences. 

Jarrett Allen without Kevin Love or Lauri Markkanen in the line-up has been absolutely smashing, and I don’t see that stopping here even against the Wizards who hold the t5 defensive rating as a team currently for the season. His rebounding rate is at 19% for this season and without Love or Markkanen, that shoots up massively. He still has Evan Mobley as a big to share the floor with, but they co-exist really nicely and compliment each other surprisingly. 

GPP

For GPPs, there aren’t a ton of straight forward options without risk, but one guy I’m looking at with high upside and A LOW FLOOR is Drew Eubanks. Him and Thad Young have been splitting the minutes in place of Jakob Poetle, and continue to as he is absent from the roster. I like them both even though their prices have been steadily rising, and it’s tough to really pinpoint which play I like more in this case. I can see Eubanks playing the same amount today but not sure about his production against Richaun Holmes, so I guess I do lean toward Thaddeus Young, but Eubanks is a high PPM guy so his upside is definitely there. 

 

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