Tristan’s NBA Game Theory (1/12)

Welcome to Tristan’s NBA Game Theory (1/12)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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A ton of news to get through tonight in a 9 game slate so please please please, don’t forget to check for updates either on Twitter or in our discord channel where news updates are posted and in our premium channel, breakdown of the news! With that out of the way, let’s get to it.

Guards

Cash

First guard I’m looking at for both cash games and GPPs is Lonzo Ball. His price here is the thing that stands out the most to me, and his high floor. This match-up looks great to me, highest scoring game on the slate and Lonzo at a 6.8k pricetag in a very competitive game where the BKN defense is not that great. His last game against this BKN team resulted in 40.5 DKP while only shooting 3-10 from the field. His stonks give him the most upside here. Also this game is weird because I believe it’s a postponed game that got rescheduled… usually Chicago plays around 8pm EST but tonight they are playing at 10pm EST, very late for their area.

Spencer Dinwiddie is also someone I’m probably going to have in most of my line-ups and for good reason. He will be fairly popular tonight and I’m not sure how he doesn’t hit past his value here. Without Bradley Beal, Dinwiddie is averaging 13.6 more ppg, 5.1 more apg, and 1.6 more rpg. A ton of bumps there for Dinwiddie and against a below average Orlando team with shotty defense, he has 35-40 DKP upside here with a high AT LEAST 25 DKP floor. His FGA also goes from 9.8 to 17.1.

GPP

Two guys I’m looking at here are Dennis Schroder and Cole Anthony. Dennis Schroder will be filling in for Marcus Smart tonight as Smart is OUT. As a starter, Dennis Schroder sees a bump up in not only minutes but a bump in points, assists, and rebounds. He will be the main PG today and with Pritchard coming back from COVID, I expect him to not have complete full run as he is returning. This should be a competitive game as we are still waiting on Indiana news to see if their guards will return. 4.8k for his production seems very nice. Also, I’m looking at Cole Anthony who since his return from COVID, has not put up the best shooting numbers. If he is somehow able to put together a 50% FG performance while shooting at the volume he is right now, he should easily surpass 40 DKP with upsides of 50. Wendell Carter Jr and Mo Bamba will be out for the Magic today which pushes Cole to a higher usage rate. One thing to note is that he did just face this WAS team and put up 27 DKP, but that was when Bamba was in the line-up and Bradley Beal was on the other side.

Forward

Cash

Chuma Okeke is going to have a big role tonight with Wendell Carter Jr and Mo Bamba out of the line-up tonight. He gets a great match-up against Washington where he just dropped 31.5 DKP WITH Mo Bamba in the line-up. He is a stl machine and even racked up 6 in a start around 20ish days ago. He hasn’t put together a complete game where he had a lot of steals WHILE making a good amount of his shots so I believe he has upside here, especially in a match-up against WAS who is on a b2b without Bradley Beal. I love the high ceiling high floor as well as the solidified minutes here.

We are on news watch for this play, or actually for this game. The Spurs put a few players in COVID protocols about 6 days ago and today would mark the day that some could return if eligible, but we have received no news thus far. If everyone continues to be out, I love me some Lonnie Walker at this price against the Rockets who are t2 in pace and t5 worst defense in the league. Lonnie has been starting the past couple of games and put up 19 and 20 shots respectively. He could easily smash if we got news that everyone is still sitting… monitor this!

GPP

I’m looking at Onyeka Okongwu here for GPPs because for one, there is uncertainty if he will get 37-38 minutes again with Gorgui Dieng back, but we do know Capela is doubtful. Two, his production seemed to be very minimal in those huge minutes he got, so there is uncertainty there as well. If he was guaranteed another 35+ minute game then I would plug him in as a great value play, but as of now I can’t truly say that he is a lock for value. We do know that Miami defense as of late hasn’t been great and centers have been doing decent against Yurtseven. If Onyeka can limit his fouling then he could see his minutes as well.

 

Center

Cash

Christian Wood is now 6.9k which we are all glad for because him at 6.2k last week was not smart from DK. This makes more sense because of his recent production, but keep in mind that the last 3 games were basically blowouts. If the Spurs guys are out again, this has a better chance to stay close, seeing that Houston hasn’t been playing great the last few games. If it stays close, I can see Wood hit around 40 DKP which is his average if games do stay close. The Spurs are decent defensively but without most of their guys, they give up more points.

GPP

As of now, I am having trouble deciding if Robin Lopez will see the bulk of the minutes at C or Mo Wagner. Robin is coming back from COVID protocols and so we don’t exactly know how conditioned he is at the moment, while Mo Wagner is an undersized C that would probably be outsized by Gafford unless Montrez comes in. I like that match-up against Montrez but there is a ton of uncertainty right now with minutes for both teams. If we do get news that Lopez is on a minutes limit or if he isn’t starting, I do like Wagner more. Remember that Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr are out today so there’s a good bit of minutes to go around.

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