Sriracha’s NBA Game Theory- 12/9/19 - DFS Karma
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Sriracha’s NBA Game Theory- 12/9/19

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
R. Westbrook G. ABC (DK preferred) M. Harrell Wolves/Suns
D. Booker B. Griffin R. Gobert Rockets/Kings
D. Rose J. Ingles A. Drummond Raptors/Bulls
K. Lowry O. Anunoby J. Valanciunas Pistons/Pelicans
R. Rubio S. Ibaka E. Kanter Cavs/Celtics

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Tonight is a solid 9-game slate.  First and foremost, each site is pretty different today, so I will be writing up two separate sections for each site due to pricing. On Draftkings it is evident that they mispriced Gordon Hayward. Even if he plays 20 minutes off injury, he should be a safe 5-6x, at 3k. However on Fanduel, where he is 6k, he is a fade for me there. There are a good amount of studs on this slate, so having Hayward for bare minimum on DK is probably going to be the high owned move.
  • If we are starting roster construction on Fanduel, I would start off with Joe Ingles. Mike Conley has already been ruled out tonight and Utah will be at home vs the Thunder, which is a paced down spot from their last game against Memphis, but isn’t as good of a defense as the Lakers where Joe completely busted. He is going to play big minutes once again with Conley out, and share the PG duties with Donovan Mitchell. On DraftKings, I would start off with Lou Williams and Hayward as mentioned before, who is super cheap at 6.5k and will be without Kawhi Leonard today.
  • Speaking of must-plays, if there is one guy I am going to be at least double the field on (if possible), it will be Devin Booker tonight.  At 8.4k on Fanduel, and just 100 more on Draftkings, he is essentially a lock to hit value in this match-up and pace up game, and has the opportunity to post a 6-7x game here which would mimic his previous couple games. Hopefully he is coming back to form and able to shoot the ball the way he did in previous seasons.
  • Once you lock in Ingles/Lou/(Hayward on DK) with Booker, this is where I believe we can get a little more “different in GPPs”.  I would use the other plays listed below to differentiate yourself from the field.
  • On FanDuel I am more balanced, on DraftKings I am jamming in some studs.
  • Below are the players I would consider in your “pool” tonight when building 3-20 lineups.  This is 100% the approach everyone reading this article should be taking tonight.  There are plenty of 3-max, 5-max, 20-max contests to enter.
  • The players I’m using in my “pool” tonight (outside of locking Booker/Ingles) include (in order of preference):
      • Westbrook
      • Blake Griffin
      • Montrezl Harrell
      • Donovan Mitchell
      • Andre Drummond
      • Ricky Rubio
      • OG Anunoby
      • Shai-Gilgeous Alexander/Dennis Schroder/CP3
      • James Harden
      • Kyle Lowry
      • Serge Ibaka
      • Kelly Oubre Jr.
      • Karl-Anthony Towns (Look for Wiggins news)
      • Jonas Valanciunas
      • Paul George
      • Lonzo Ball
      • Giannis Antetokounmpo (More on DK, FD I am fading.)
      • Some value plays I like- Kanter, Hill (Seems like Crowder won’t suit up), Kennard.
  • We’re still waiting on a few pieces of information, so keep your eyes peeled.
  • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
  • Pelicans/Pistons could be a nuts game stack, but Pistons play slow- they’ll be in an up pace matchup with the Pelicans and if they start running and gunning, guys like Griffin, Drummond, etc. will be the “nuts” tonight.

 

If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.

  • Twitter: @SrirachaDFS

 

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