Sriracha’s NBA DFS Game Theory- 12/26/20

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES. Our own staff uses these along with the player pool below to help create cores which you can find here, in our Premium Core Plays, where experts such as myself, Ben, Bales, AC and more post our cores daily.

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

• Christmas Miracle happened! I took first in the $33 Slam for $15,000 last night. Truly life changing. Let’s do it again tonight, yeah? This is a great slate and I love the games we have on the board. I’m gonna keep it pretty short and sweet today, I know exactly where I’m going on this slate and I’m going to highlight the lower owned plays that I think have huge upside today.
• By far, the game that stands out the most is the Houston vs Portland game. Houston only has 9 players. I expect them to start Harden, one of Brown/Nwaba, House, Wood and Tucker. Harden and Wood figure to get the most ownership here, I expect them to be the highest owned on the slate, for a good reason. I can see people making a case for a Harden fade, but let’s be real here, he might shoot 50 times tonight. Don’t be surprised if he does. For tournaments, I can see the fade and if it works out, you’ll be firmly ahead of the field. However, in cash games, I want Harden and Wood for sure. Now, I will rank how I see the rest of the Rockets roster. I want Danuel House on FanDuel who is near min price. He will definitely see 30+ minutes and he is one of the guys that Houston can rely on to play his role since their other wings are all brand new, in Nwaba, Brown, Thomas, and Tate. The hardest part is deciding who is going to be better in terms of Nwaba and Brown. I’ve been following both for awhile, I’ve watched Nwaba on the Lakers and Brown since summer league. Brown has a great feel for the game on the offensive end and can definitely score buckets, where Nwaba is similar to Josh Hart in a sense where he hustles, rebounds well for a guard, and is a terrific cutter. I think Brown probably gets 12+ shots off today without a doubt, but Nwaba can fill up the stat sheet a little more. It’s close, but I have Harden>Wood>House>Brown>Nwaba. Those are the 4 Rockets I would prioritize but I don’t mind Tucker either.
• I’m going to make my player pool short and concise for this slate. I know exactly what I am building around today. My core 4 for this slate has to start with Harden, Wood, Brogdon, and Biyombo. Brogdon is still priced fairly for what he can do on the floor. Warren isn’t fully healthy yet and Brogdon gets a stellar matchup vs the Bulls, who turn the ball over quite a bit as well. He shot well from the floor and did a little bit of everything vs the Knicks and I expect a similar stat line here. In terms of Biyombo, he is starting today vs the Thunder. It isn’t the best matchup but he plays well when he starts and they need size today vs Horford. He’s cheap, he can block a few shots, and be on the floor for around 25 minutes.
• *Watch out for Rockets starting lineup news-  Whoever starts at SG will probably get the bump for me, whether that is Brown or Nwaba.
• Now, I will go over my full player pool for today, below.

• Guys who I will also have exposure to today, other than the ones listed above in no particular order (PLAYER POOL)

• De’Aaron Fox
• Ben Simmons
• Buddy Hield
• Danuel House
• Nikola Vucevic
• Joel Embiid
• Aaron Gordon
• Marvin Bagley
• Harrison Barnes
• Mikal Bridges
• Devin Booker
• Darius Garland
• Josh Jackson (wink wink)
• Domas Sabonis
• Darius Bazley