This piece’s content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the elite cash plays, safe gpp plays, low-owned gpp plays, and fades of today’s NBA main slate.
By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our own staff uses these along with the player pool below to help create cores which you can find here, in our Premium Core Plays, where experts such as myself, Ben, Bales, AC and more post our cores daily.
| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| K. Irving | O. Porter (FD) | N. Jokic | CHI/POR |
| J. Murray | J. Harris | R. Gobert | UTA/BKN |
| C. White | D. DeRozan | E. Davis (if starts) | MIN/DEN |
| C. LeVert | K. Leonard (if plays) | E. Kanter | SA/LAC |
| L. Williams (if Kawhi out) | K. Johnson (better if LMA out) | LAL/MEM |
*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Thoughts:
Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.
- Hello all and welcome back for another DFS Karma Game Theory! Now there is a lot of injury news but that is covered over at https://dfskarma.com/basketball/nba-injury-news-and-impact. There are only 5 games today which means there will be less variance. The less games there are, the less spread out the ownership percentages are for each player, which means you cannot afford to miss a high scoring player. Let’s dive right in.
- This is a solid slate with 5 games, injury news, and decent match-ups. There are still injuries to monitor throughout the day so keep a lookout for those. We are looking for Lebron James, KCP, and LaMarcus Aldridge updates. Having Lebron ruled out would bump all of the Lakers, especially Kyle Kuzma and Anthony Davis. Dennis Schroder also gets a slight bump. If LaMarcus is ruled out, then you can look at DeMar DeRozan and Dejounte Murray.
- First things first, let’s discuss Kevin Durant. He is going to be out for the next 7 days (4 games), and almost all the Nets should get a bump. Durant currently holds a 30.3% usage rate that will have to be spread out to all of the Nets players. Kyrie Irving gets an increased usage rate of 3.8% without Durant and if this game were to be close and competitive, I am assuming he is the reason. If you are confident that is the case, I believe you have to have someone in your build that will be the reason for Utah to be competitive. The term “run it back” is used in many fantasy sports, and in this spot I am looking to “run it back” with Mike Conley or Donovan Mitchell. This means playing someone from the opposing team that will help the game stay competitive and close. If one team is scoring a lot and the other team is as well, there has to be a stand-out player that is helping that theory. Mitchell has been very underwhelming this season but I believe this game environment sets him up to maybe engage in a shootout with Irving. Someone else we should look at from the Nets side is Caris LeVert. He is pricey on both DK and FD at 6.6k and 6.1k respectively, but gains a 9.4% usage rate with Durant out. As we all know, the Nets are missing Spencer Dinwiddie as well so this ultimately bumps LeVert up more.
- Right now the fastest pace game is the CHI v POR game which has some pieces that I will be looking at. Zach LaVine has had a great start to the year so far, and I do see him continuing that against a less than average defensive team in the Trailblazers. Someone that pops up for me on FanDuel is Otto Porter Jr. at 5,300. At this price he is a great value play, seeing that he can rack up peripheral stats as well as shoot the ball. He is getting a lot of time because of the COVID issues Chicago is dealing with, so his minutes are guaranteed above 28 IMO.
- Be on lookout for Kawhi Leonard, just in case he were to sit. This is the first of 3-in-4 for the Clippers, which means 3 games in 4 days. Leonard sat the first game of a b2b last time, and seeing that this IS a first of a b2b, I would not be surprised to see him sit. If he does sit, Paul George becomes a staple in all lineups and Lou Williams becomes a solid GPP play. Without Leonard, Williams should see increased usage and the Clippers will have to count on him more to score. If Leonard does play, then he is a great play on DK. Coming in at 9,100, Leonard has all the tools he needs to smash that price against his former former team in the San Antonio Spurs.
- Just some notes I have include:
- Ed Davis should start again against Nikola Jokic, the Timberwolves went with this last game and I believe they will again. He got 24 mins and put up 20.5 DKP which fully exceeds his price value.
- Rudy Gobert good play on DK
- Jarrett Culver is interesting if he can replicate his performance from last game
- Does Taurean Prince start for KD again? He only got 18 mins last time around, not really reeling me in.. Joe Harris played 41 minutes!! (This game was without Kyrie Irving as well)
- Malik Beasley revenge narrative (Rnd 2?)
- Kanter or Nurk? Seems like one and only one of them out of the two will do well
- When will Steve Nash learn that Jarrett Allen > DeAndre Jordan
- Now, I will go over my full player pool for today, below.
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Guys who I will have exposure to today in no particular order [other than those in table above] (PLAYER POOL)
- Mike Conley
- Dejounte Murray
- Zach LaVine
- Donovan Mitchell
- Malik Beasley
- Jordan Clarkson
- Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
- Will Barton
- Rudy Gay
- Joe Harris
- Jarrett Culver
- Anthony Davis
- Royce O’Neal
- Paul Millsap
- JaMychal Green
- Kyle Kuzma (FD)
- Serge Ibaka (FD)
- Jeff Green (DK)
