Sriracha’s NBA DFS Game Theory- 1/31/20

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

• A solid slate with a good plethora of fast paced games and good matchups. To start with, we received news that Luka Doncic will miss about two weeks with an ankle injury suffered in practice. This opens up a lot of value at the guard position. Let’s get into this juicy slate.
• If we are starting roster construction on both sites, I would start with Jalen Brunson. With Luka Doncic out, Brunson will pick up the slack and hopefully start for the Mavericks. We’ve seen flashes of good FPPM and he’s going to have to handle a lot of the scoring/assisting duties for Dallas. He’s arguably the best PG they have on the bench, Barea won’t see large minutes, Curry has really played majority of a SG role, and Brunson should get the start.
• The second player I’ll be building around is Jonas Valanciunas. With JJJ out and Brandon Clarke doubtful to play, Jval is the last remaining big on the team. They will need his size vs Favors and with Zion also back they’ll need to use him for rebounding purposes. The Grizzlies will be super shorthanded and I think Jae Crowder will also be a great play as he will have to pick up the minutes at the 4 spot and this should lead to a great value play.
• Another play I love on FanDuel but not so much on DraftKings is Serge Ibaka. He should be starting in place of Gasol and opposing bigs have feasted vs Drummond. I like that he is a PF on FanDuel and cheap, as I have Valanciunas as my #1 Center on both sites. For DraftKings, someone who is underpriced is Steven Adams. Sub 5k on DK, that’s super cheap vs the PHX Suns. He could potentially pay off 7-8x his salary at that price.
• Some studs I like to pay up for tonight are LeBron James and James Harden. I fully expect LeBron to be my stud of the night as he plays one of the most emotional games in his career with the absolutely devastating passing of Kobe Bryant. He has said publicly that he will put the team on his back and will lead them to a championship. I expect the Lakers to put on a show tonight in front of this emotional crowd. Harden on the other hand has been playing awfully as he deals with some nagging injuries. Over the past two weeks he’s struggled with his shot and has failed to have a breakout shooting game. Today’s matchup vs Dallas could be the remedy to break it, but Russell Westbrook has been playing lights out as of late and shouldering the scoring load for the Rockets.
• Some top tier value plays tonight: Jae Crowder, Jalen Brunson, Seth Curry, Delon Wright (GPP) Serge Ibaka (FD) Steven Adams (DK)
• Now, for tournaments, this is where I believe we can get a little more “different”. I would use the other plays listed below to differentiate yourself from the field.
• Below are the players I would consider in your “pool” tonight when building 3-20 lineups.  This is 100% the approach everyone reading this article should be taking tonight.  There are plenty of 3-max, 5-max, 20-max contests to enter
• The players I’m using in my “pool” tonight (outside of locking Brunson, Valanciunas, Ibaka (FD) and one of the studs I listed)
  • • Pascal Siakam
    • Russell Westbrook
    • Dillon Brooks
    • Kyrie Irving
    • Jae Crowder
    • Damian Lillard
    • Ja Morant
    • Zach Lavine
    • Devin Booker
    • Trevor Ariza
    • Kristaps Porzingis
    • DeAndre Ayton
    • Hassan Whiteside
    • Torrey Craig
    • Seth Curry
  • We’re still waiting on a few pieces of information, so keep your eyes peeled.
  • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
  • My top game stack of the night will be MEM/NO. I love the Memphis side, Morant, Val, Brooks, and Crowder. I would run it back with Jrue, Lonzo, and Favors with a sprinkle of Zion or BI to round it out. 
  • If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
    • Twitter: @SrirachaDFS