We lost the Bet Karma SPF Predictor play on Monkey Knife Fight last night. Alex Cobb hit the over, but Chad Kuhl was throwing on another level. He recorded 8 strikeouts yesterday, although his swinging-strike rate was lower than his season average. It’s unfortunate, but it’s a loss. We’re shifting over to NBA for our play tonight, although we’re staying on MKF. Below, I’ll outline my favorite play for the Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks game.
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2/2 More or Less – Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic over 32.5 points
Situationally, this could be a game where Doncic is forced to take 30+ shot attempts. It doesn’t happen often, but we’ve seen it on occasion, including in the first game of this series. The Dallas Mavericks are in a win-or-go-home situation, and they’ll be playing in front of the crowd in Dallas, where they’re 2-0 this series.
Doncic posted 35+ points in each of the first two games of this series, although he’s scored 28 or fewer points in the last three. I’m expecting this game to rest on his shoulders, as he’s the franchise player. We’ve seen several big-time players step up in these situations, and Doncic is on his way to being a future MVP.
I don’t necessarily love the matchup, but this is a situational play rather than a matchup play. Doncic will be locked into as many minutes as he can handle, and he’ll be locked into 25+ shot attempts again. He’s been a better scorer at home throughout the season, and that should be on display tonight.
Devin Booker over 26.5 points
Booker’s the focal point of the Phoenix Suns offense, and he’s the arch-nemesis of Luka Doncic. Booker’s enjoying a solid series, and he’s posted 27+ points in three of his last four games.
Similar to the way I’m expecting Doncic to take over the game for Dallas, I’m expecting Booker to do the same for Phoenix. Although the home team’s won every game in this series, there’s very little reason to believe the Suns would welcome a Game 7 situation. Instead, they’ll be looking to end the series here, and that will rely on Booker.
He’s also been a significantly better scorer on the road this season, where he’s averaging 28.5 points per game. This total feels roughly 1 point low, giving us an edge on the over.
Bet Luka Doncic over 32.5 points and Devin Booker over 26.5 points to win 3.6x your buy-in
