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Dropping Dimes – Dallas Mavericks/Denver Nuggets
This total simply seems a bit off. The Denver Nuggets have looked outstanding at home this season, where they are averaging 27.1 assists per game. Nikola Jokic and Monte Morris have been their best two facilitators, recording 37.9% and 23.6% assist rates on the season, respectively. Both players have finally been locked into bigger minutes recently, and they are combining to average 12.0 assists per game over their last four games. Each of those games happen to be low scoring, though, as they played three high end defenses and traveled to Atlanta for a road game. The other part of this play is Luka Doncic, who ranks second on the Dallas Mavericks with a 23.1% assist rate. With that being said, he could potentially play more point guard if Dennis Smith Jr. is forced to miss this game again. Over his last four games, Doncic is averaging a healthy 7.5 assists per game. These three players will be doing the majority of the facilitating for their offense, and attack the 3x or 5x wouldn’t be a bad idea at all, although you should drop the amount you’re playing on this if that is the case.
Play $50 on Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Monte Morris OVER 18.5 assists to win $100 (2x)
Scoring Champ – Washington Wizards/Atlanta Hawks
Once again, we have what seems to be a relatively safe play for the situation here. Strictly over the last 10 days, this trio is averaging 72.5 points per game, and that includes an 11 point performance from John Collins and a one point performance from John Wall (which simply won’t happen again). Excluding those two games, this trio is averaging 83.6 points per game. This will also be one of the fastest paced games on the slate, as the Atlanta Hawks rank first (109.3) and the Washington Wizards rank third (106.8) in possessions per game. Each of these players is locked into big minutes, and they are combining to average 52.9 shot attempts (14.8 three-point attempts) and 15.2 free throw attempts per game. Wall failed to play in their only matchup of the season, while Beal and Collins combined for 62 points alone. While the game will play out differently with Wall active, we could see similar scoring because of the fast paced nature of this matchup. Similarly to the play above, this one can get bumped up, although I wouldn’t truly go up to 5x here.
Play $50 on John Wall, Bradley Beal, and John Collins OVER 72.5 points to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 5/5 – Cleveland Cavaliers/Indiana Pacers
After two safe plays, I’m adding a more risky option here. Jordan Clarkson has scored more than 16 points in each of his last seven games with 28+ minutes. The Cleveland Cavaliers rotation is somewhat difficult to predict, but Clarkson is expected to see big minutes once again tonight. Bojan Bogdanovic was one of the more difficult players to predict, but he needs an efficient shooting night to score 17+ points. His shot attempts have dropped since the return of Victor Oladipo, and he has only scored 18 points in one of his last three games. While the minutes are there, the opportunities could be limited here. Larry Nance is another player that likely needs 30+ minutes to see double-digit rebounds. He has recorded 10+ rebounds in only two of his last 10 games, playing 37 and 33 minutes in those games. Furthermore, Nance is averaging only 27.2 minutes per game over his last 10 games. Burks is in a similar spot. He has scored two or more three-pointers in only two of his last 10 games, and they were also the only two games he saw 30+ minutes. He’s unlikely to see that tonight, though, limiting his potential three-point attempts. Darren Collison is my biggest concern in this play. He has been playing extremely well, but will struggle with usage with Oladipo back in the lineup. He’s averaging 8.8 assists per game over the last 10 days, but he’s averaging only 5.8 assists per game on the season, and that number is a bit high due to the plethora of games he played without Oladipo. Collison could still work as a facilitator, but I’ll take my chances on the under here.
Play $20 on Jordan Clarkson OVER 16.5, Bojan Bogdanovic UNDER 16.5, Larry Nance UNDER 9.5, Alec Burks UNDER 1.5, and Darren Collison UNDER 5.5 to win $260 (13x)
