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Man I love the NBA Playoffs, just great games and drama every night. Yesterday I felt pretty confident that Memphis would blow out the T-Wolves and that ended up playing out, but somehow none of the Memphis plays really did well. I did make some money straight betting on the Grizz, so it ended up being a profitable night. We get another 3 game slate this evening and all these teams have really condensed their rotations and are playing the starters heavy minutes. There are a lot of great mid-range and spend-up plays but very little value on this slate.
INJURIES
- Scottie Barnes – D
- Gary Trent – P
There isn’t much news we’re waiting on as I expect Trent to play and Barnes to sit. We’ll need to monitor that Toronto starting line-up just in case something unforeseen pops up, especially with them being down 0-2 to Philly.
GUARDS
At Guard my favorite play is Fred VanVleet. Nick Nurse is somehow running his starters out for even more minutes than the regular season, which means VanVleet is seeing 40+ minutes a night. He played 44 minutes the other night and I’m expecting similar minutes tonight. VanVleet is over a fantasy point per minute producer and took 23 shots last game, he just wasn’t hitting his shot. I’m expecting a big performance from Fred in front of the home Toronto crowd. He seems safe for cash games and I even like him in tournaments with some sneaky upside. The other guard I like who provides some salary relief is Marcus Smart. He’s priced at $5,800 and in a match-up with Brooklyn I like the upside. Smart is going to play close to 40 minutes as he has a big defensive assignment with trying to Guard Kyrie and Durant. In the last month, Smart has been right around a fantasy point per minute producer and has fared well in this match-up with Brooklyn in the past (1.1 fantasy points per minute vs. Brooklyn this year). I’ll be firing up Smart in all formats.
FORWARDS
At Forward we have some chalk that I think I’m going to eat in Danny Green. He’s priced at $3,600 and he just came off a game where he played 37 minutes. I’m expecting big minutes again with Thybulle out tonight so at $3,600 he’s a much needed salary relief play. I’ll again be sticking to the mid-range plays as they all look like solid values (especially at Forward). Demar Derozan just played 43 minutes and put up 41 fantasy points on 6 for 25 shooting. He’s priced at $8,300 and I’m expecting a big game from him tonight at a slightly discounted price tag. On the year he’s been at 1.2 fantasy points per minute and has similar rates in this match-up with Milwaukee. I like him as a solid, moderately owned tournament option this evening and don’t mind him even in cash games.
CENTER
There are quite a few Center plays I like but Vucevic priced at a discounted $7,300 tag is where I’ll focus. He saw extended minutes in the first playoff game (38 minutes) and put up 56 fantasy points on 9 for 27 shooting. He’s typically around a 1.2 fantasy point per minute producer so the price tag just looks much too cheap should Chicago keep this game competitive. I’ll probably be fading Embiid tonight as there are just a lot of players getting big minutes at cheaper price tags that are easier to build around.
The mid-range is loaded tonight and I’m thinking about just building lineups with all players priced under $10,000 (With the exception of Giannis). Giannis would be my favorite of the over $10K plays and I probably will sprinkle some Giannis into my line-ups since I like a lot of plays from Chicago. It’s another fun playoff slate so let’s crush tonight!
Cash Plays: Fred VanVleet, Marcus Smart, Danny Green, Vucevic, Giannis Antetekoumpo
GPP Plays: Demar Derozan, Gary Trent, Fred VanVleet, Zach Lavine, Brook Lopez
Max
