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I’m loving these NBA Playoffs so far, there’s so much parity in the league that I can see up to 8 teams with a chance to win this thing. The Warriors look amazing so far and if we get a Warriors vs. Suns match-up in the Western Conference Finals that could be one of the more hyped series in recent memory. For the next few days we’ll continue to see 3 game slates, which I don’t mind. Tonight’s slate presents some interesting challenges as there’s basically no sub $4,000 value that we can feel comfortable clicking on our rosters.
INJURIES
- Bam Adebayo – Q
- Pj Tucker – Q
- Dwayne Dedmon – Q
- Taurean Prince – Q
We’ll need to monitor the Miami injury report but that’s the first game of the night so we should get that news before lock. I’m expecting all the Miami questionable players to play but if one of them gets ruled out that could open up an important value piece on this slate.
GUARDS
There are some great spend-up guards that I’d love to get into my line-ups with Ja Morant leading the charge. The issue is Morant is priced at $9,800 and on this slate it’s extremely hard to fit him in without playing some very questionable value. I’ll be trying to take any discounted price tags I can find on this slate and I’m leaning toward the balanced build approach this early in the day. I like Memphis to come out motivated tonight with their season on the line, going down 0-2 after playing two games at home would be close to a death sentence. I also don’t mind betting the Memphis spread currently sitting as 6.5 point favorites over the T-Wolves this evening. If I like Memphis to win then it makes sense that I’m going to want some plays from the Grizz and Desmond Bane is sitting at an affordable $6,400 price tag on DK. He fits a balanced build approach and I can see the Grizz extending his minutes some in this spot. I’m also expecting the ownership to be held in check with him laying a dud in the first game of the series. If looking for a contrarian GPP option, I like D’Angelo Russell on the other side of this game. I’m expecting ownership on the T-Wolves to condense on Towns and Edwards but Russell is priced at a more reasonable $7,100 price tag. The minutes were cut short last game but I’m expecting him to be back up in the 35 minute range. Russell also has not had issues in this match-up throughout the year averaging 1.4 fantasy points per minute against Memphis. The best part is he’s projected for single digit ownership on a 3 game slate. I’ll be making sure to get overweight on Russell in my GPP portfolio.
FORWARDS
At Forward Mikal Bridges stands out based on projections. He’s priced at $5,000 and playing close to 40 minutes a night. He doesn’t produce at elite rates (.75 fantasy points per minute) but at the price tag and minutes he grades out as the best value play on the slate. For cash games he seems pretty safe but if he’s going to be the highest owned play on the slate in tournaments I don’t mind coming in underweight as he doesn’t have the highest ceiling. The other play I like but we need to monitor ownership projections on is Brandon Clarke. Clarke produces at over a fantasy point per minute and just last game saw 27 minutes. He had one of the best plus/minus ratings on the Grizz in the 1st game so it wouldn’t be surprising for his minutes to continue to be in the 25-30 minute range, even while continuing to come off the bench. At a $4,400 price tag and with Power Forward eligibility he looks like a needed value option tonight. However, if the ownership projection is looking like he’ll be close to 50% owned, I see reasons to fade in GPPs. As a direct pivot we could look to Jaren Jackson Jr. or Steven Adams from the same team at significantly lower ownership.
CENTER
Center has a lot of solid mid-range plays and I’m expecting almost all my rosters to have two Centers tonight. My favorite play is Deandre Ayton at a $7,200 price tag. It seems like Ayton’s skill-set is built for the playoffs as he put up 43 fantasy points in 34 minutes last game. He’s gone over 40 fantasy points in his last 3 games and I don’t see that changing tonight. It also looks like the ownership will be held in check with a lot of great Center options on the slate. Karl Anthony-Towns grades out well but I can see Memphis blowing out the T-Wolves tonight and there are similar options to KAT for $2,000 less at the Center position tonight. I’m toying with the idea of fully fading KAT tonight in hopes that the Grizzlies vs. T-Wolves game blows out.
This is an interesting slate with basically no value and not many stand-out plays. If your playing GPPs tonight it’s a good day to get different, as I don’t see any play that should be extremely chalky. If we see chalk condensing on a few plays, find pivots to take advantage of low ownership on a similarly projected play. I’m thinking of telling a story in my GPP allocations and may assume on some rosters that a few of these games blow-out as I’m expecting one or two blow-outs tonight. Good luck everybody and enjoy the games!
Cash Plays: Mikal Bridges, Desmond Bane, Deandre Ayton, Bam Adebayo, Brandon Clarke
GPP Plays: Jaren Jackson Jr., D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, Deandre Ayton, Tyler Herro
Max
