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The playoffs have gone well so far as I’m 2 for 2 on profitable nights thus far. Tonight we have a Friday night slate with two win or go home games, it doesn’t get much better than that folks. As expected, we’re seeing condensed rotations and I’m expecting two extremely competitive games as I don’t foresee any blowouts tonight. I hope everyone can relax, make some money and enjoy the games this evening.
INJURIES
- Jarrett Allen – Q (expected to play)
- Bogdan Bogdanovic – Q
- Luke Kennard – Q
We do have a couple of pieces of injury news to monitor. If Jarrett Allen of Bogdan miss tonight’s games we’d have a couple extra value pieces potentially open up. The Cleveland vs. Atlanta game is at 7:30 so we should get the injury news we’re waiting on before lock.
GUARDS
I actually really like this slate for only having 2 games. At Guard my favorite spend-up is again Paul George. PG-13 is going to play 40 minutes in a home match-up with the Pelicans. He’s been at 1.55 fantasy points per minute over the last month and I’m expecting a vintage performance out of him tonight. The best part is, early ownership projections show Trae Young getting the most ownership, I’ll gladly side with Paul George at an ownership discount. If we want to save some salary, Darius Garland stands out at a cheap $8,500 price tag. Garland should play around 40 minutes tonight and he’s been at 1.3 fantasy points per minute vs. Atlanta this year. This is just too cheap a tag on Garland. The last guard play I like should be chalky in Reggie Jackson. His price did come up from $5,500 to $6,100 but the price tag still looks a little too cheap. He’s playing close to 40 minutes and produces at around .85 fantasy points per minute with Paul George on the court. If the Clips are going to keep running Reggie out there for big minutes I’ll have no choice but to continue to roster him. Keep in mind there is some negative correlation between him and Paul George so you may want to monitor how many GPP lineups have both of them on the same roster.
FORWARDS
I recommended Marcus Morris on the slate on Tuesday and that did not go well. But, I did like that Morris played a normal rotation and saw 30 minutes in that game. I’m expecting similar minutes tonight and am going to have to go right back to Mr. Morris tonight to fill a weak Small Forward position. He’s projected for 15% ownership on a 2 game slate so he’s probably going to make or break tonight’s slate for me. The other forward I like is another value option in Danilo Gallinari. Danilo is priced at a very reasonable $4,700 and continues to start for the Hawks and play around 30 minutes. He has some major upside should his shot be falling on a given night. Danilo produces around .9 fantasy points per minute with John Collins off the floor and if we also get Bogdan ruled out then Danilo would see a minutes boost. Sign me up for some Danilo tonight.
CENTER
Center has a lot of plays I like this evening. The Jonas Valanciunas price tag sticks out at $8,000. Over the last month JVAL has produced at a rate of 1.36 fantasy points per minute and in this match-up with the Clippers he’s been at 1.43 fantasy points per minute. He’s now playing 35+ minutes and in a win or go home game I think he has upside for 40 minutes tonight. I also don’t expect the ownership to get out of hand so he’s looking like a great bring-back piece in Paul George lineups. I also don’t mind getting to Clint Capela or Ivaca Zubac at Center. Capela should see a bump in minutes as well with this being an elimination game. The last game versus Charlotte was a blowout, so Capela missed a potential five extra minutes to garbage time. Zubac is a similar play to Capela, but substantially cheaper at $5,400. “Big Zu” saw 31 minutes last game and in a match-up with Valanciunas I’m expecting the Clips will need him to play a bunch tonight. If you want to get contrarian and think Zubac plays poorly or gets in foul trouble, Hartenstein sticks out as a great leverage play that can break the slate. The problem with Hartenstein is that if Zubac plays well and Tyronn Lue sticks to a similar rotation as last game, then we may only see 10-14 minutes from Hartenstein, but there’s GPP upside at low ownership if he sees extra minutes tonight. I’ll sprinkle in a little Hartenstein in my GPP portfolio.
I actually really like this slate and it looks like some of my favorite plays may be low owned for a two game slate. I love playing DFS on Friday nights and it’s tough to beat back-to-back elimination games. Let’s make some cheese!
Cash Plays: Reggie Jackson, Danilo Gallinari, Darius Garland, Paul George
GPP Plays: Marcus Morris, Jonas Valanciunas, Paul George, Norm Powell, Ivaca Zubac
Max
