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The NBA Regular Season has come to it’s end but now is when the real fun begins. NBA Playoffs DFS is almost like a totally separate sport than Regular Season NBA DFS in that late swap is not as important and there will be less options and value available with teams condensing rotations and less players sitting out due to injury. I’ve had a lot of success in past years playing these playoff slates so I’m looking forward to the next few months. We also get some incredible games and drama, as this year there doesn’t seem to be a clear favorite and I can see a number of teams winning it all, which should make the playoffs that much more entertaining. Today we get a 2 game play-in slate so let’s dig in and see if we can find a few plays we like.
INJURIES
- Goran Dragic – P
- Seth Curry – P
- Luke Kennard – Q
I love writing playoff injury reports…there’s basically no relevant news we’re waiting on as far as injuries. I don’t think Ben Simmons will be playing for the Nets today but we’ll need to monitor that situation going forward as I’m expecting him to get some minutes at some point in the first round (if the Nets get there). The key in the playoffs is monitoring starting lineups. As we get deeper into some series, coaches may make some changes to lineups that can have a huge impact on minutes and who we want to play for DFS purposes. Tonight, the Clippers starting lineup is the main news I’m waiting on. They have so many options so it’ll be interesting to see their rotation with almost all their players back (other than Kawhi).
GUARDS
In the playoffs it’s a lot tougher to just jam in multiple studs so many times we have to side with a balanced build approach with so little value and the studs priced up. At Guard my favorite play (and he may come in low owned) is Paul George. Based on points per dollar he’s my favorite spend-up of the slate as he gives you over a $2,000 discount off Durant and those savings will be needed on this slate. “Playoff P” as I like to call him is fully recovered from his injury and we can expect big minutes throughout the postseason. On the year he’s producing at a rate of 1.32 fantasy points per minute but in the last 2 weeks he’s really turned it on and produced at a rate of 1.55 fantasy points per minute. In a massive game tonight to decide who gets to play the Grizzlies in the first round, I’m expecting 40 minutes from PG and I actually like the Clippers as a team throughout these playoffs as a potential sleeper. Minnesota also has a few nice mid-range spends in Patrick Beverly and D’Angelo Russell. I expect both these plays to be chalky but they’re solid values at their respective price points. We can also look to Reggie Jackson at a cheap $5,500 price tag, but I will caution that he doesn’t produce at the same clip with Paul George on the court. On the season Jackson has produced at a rate of .82 fantasy points per minute with Paul George on the floor but the price tag is cheap enough that I don’t mind going here in cash games. It looks like I’ll be siding with the Minnesota vs. Los Angeles match-up for stacking purposes.
FORWARDS
As I go through the slate it seems like all my favorite plays are coming from the late game. Brooklyn has Kyrie and Durant that both dominate the ball and hog all the fantasy points, making secondary plays from the Nets harder to get to. Of course I love Durant tonight but the issue is he’s priced at $12,000 on DK. It’s extremely hard to fit him in unless you want to play Okoro or Vanderbilt (puke). For tournaments it looks like Okoro and Vanderbilt will be extremely chalky so I’d rather stick to a balanced build approach and get a little different where I can. I’ve played Marcus Morris so many times over the years and he seems to always treat me right. On a slate with not much value, I like getting to Morris at a $5,500 price tag. The minutes have been all over the place lately but I’m thinking that’s attributable to the Clippers not having much to play for the last few games. I’m expecting a regular rotation for Morris tonight (around 32 minutes) and he can put up some big games if he gets the minutes. He’s going to be low owned on this slate so for tournaments I like Marcus Morris.
CENTER
Center is weak on this slate with Karl Anthony-Towns the only option sticking out. We probably can only prioritize one spend-up tonight so that will be Paul George for me. If you can figure out a build to play both KAT and PG-13, I don’t mind that as we get some added correlation in our line-up. If we aren’t able to fit in KAT, I like going all the way down the pricing spectrum to Nic Claxton. The mid-range centers seem a bit overpriced so by default I’ll just take the savings with Claxton. He’s been seeing about half the Center minutes for Brooklyn and produces at close to a fantasy point per minute, so even in just 20 minutes he can pay off a $4,000 salary. Claxton also has some upside, if things aren’t working with Drummond I can see Steve Nash having a quick hook on Drummond and Claxton getting most of the Center minutes tonight. This is a massive game for Brooklyn so expect Nash to ride the hot hand.
It’s a small slate but it should be a fun one. I love sweating playoff DFS since we get to watch all the games. I’ll be going full Degen and playing showdown as well as live betting…let’s live a little. Hope everyone enjoys the games and make sure to read my article on NBA Playoffs Best Ball as they have some great tournaments on Underdog fantasy for those of you in the Best Ball streets.
Cash Plays: D’Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverly, Reggie Jackson, Paul George, Jared Vanderbilt, Kevin Durant
GPP Plays: Paul George, Marcus Morris, Seth Curry, Nic Claxton, Karl Anthony-Towns, Norm Powell
Max
