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Happy Monday! I’ve been super busy working a proposal for the day job but should have some extra time this week to hit some NBA Playoffs DFS hard before the end of the year. It’s been a solid stretch for me with the NBA Playoffs and PGA Golf going well of late. Today I’ll be focusing on the 2 game slate on Draftkings since that’s what I’ll be playing and there really isn’t much to write about on showdown slates with so few plays to choose from other than game theory/ownership angles. These two game slates have a surprising amount of late swap edge since there isn’t much late swapping going on before the 2nd day/game of the slate. You can get some significant edges through late swapping based on waiting for news from the 2nd game to drop.
INJURIES
- Robert Williams – Q
- Otto Porter Jr. – Q
- Jayson Tatum – P
- Jimmy Butler – Q
- Marcus Smart – Q
- Max Strus – Q
- Kyle Lowry – Q
- Tyler Herro – Q
- PJ Tucker – Q
- Gabe Vincent – Q
This injury report gives me flashbacks to March NBA and it’s only a 2 game slate! We have a lot of injuries to watch for but we should get most of the news before lock since Miami vs. Boston is the first game of the slate. The big news we won’t know about is Otto Porter Jr. I’m expecting him to sit with a foot injury since the Warriors are up 3-0 and don’t really have a need to rush him back.
GUARDS
I have a clear view on this slate and what I want to do in GPPs. I’m going to side with teams that are down in the series since they are in desperation mode and most likely will give their players extended minutes. At guard I of course like Luca and will try to get him into at least half of my line-ups in my GPP Portfolio. He’s priced up at $11,800, but I’m expecting big minutes and big production in an elimination game. As more of a GPP Play I like Spencer Dinwiddie on Dallas as well. Just last game Dinwiddie saw 32 minutes and Dallas was +2 (+-rating) with him on the floor, which makes me feel more confident that Jason Kidd gives him 30+ minutes again with his scoring desperately needed if Dallas is to keep up with the Warriors. Dinwiddie is priced at a reasonable $4,800 tag and just put up 31 fantasy points in his last game. I’ll make sure to set a rule to use one of Dinwiddie or Kleber since I expect one of them to close the game over the other and each directly impacts the minutes of the other.
FORWARDS
At Forward I’m going right back to Dorian Finney-Smith even after getting burned by him last night. DFS played 42 minutes last night and I can see Jason Kidd just leaning on his starters for close to 48 minutes in an elimination game. The $4,900 tag is the cheapest we’ve seen on Finney-Smith throughout the playoffs so I’ll be getting well overweight on him in my GPP Portfolio. As a spend up option I’ll be going to Jayson Tatum who hopefully has an ownership discount after a couple below average games from him to start this Conference Finals Series. The price gap between him and Jaylen Brown has begun to narrow so I’ll side with Tatum ($9,700) tonight in a huge game for Boston.
CENTER
At Center we need to wait on the Robert Williams news. If he does get ruled out again I’ll be firing up all the Al Horford I can. Horford is priced at a reasonable $6,500 and with Robert Williams off the floor this year he’s produced at a rate of 1.07 fantasy points per minute. I’d expect close to 40 minutes and he’d be my favorite play on the slate if ‘Timelord’ is out. Bam Adebayo is another solid option at Center but I’m afraid the ownership may get crazy on him coming off a big game. I’m also expecting Boston to blow out Miami tonight so I don’t want to get too overweight on any single Heat player. for GPPs.
My GPP strategy for this two game slate is play as many players from Boston and Dallas as I can and hope they extend the minutes and win convincingly. Value is getting harder and harder to come by so I don’t mind some line-ups that fade Luca in favor of a balanced build. There are only a few more games left in these Playoffs so let’s crush these last few NBA slates.
Cash Plays: Al Horford, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, Luca Doncic, Jayson Tatum
GPP Plays: Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jalen Brunson
