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I hope everyone had a great Memorial Day Weekend and is enjoying the summer. With NBA winding down it’s been a nice break from DFS as I typically play very light throughout the summer to get refreshed for next season. I’ll dabble in some PGA but for the most part I take this time to reset and spend with family while enjoying the good weather. We do have a few more NBA Finals Showdown Slates with some huge prize pools. Tonight on DraftKings there’s a Milly Maker that’s only half full at the time of writing this article. There could be some major overlay brewing so keep an eye out as we get closer to lock to take advantage of that. It could potentially be a good night to play a little heavier should we see substantial overlay across all contests.
INJURIES
- Robert Williams – Q
- Otto Porter – Q (Likely to Play)
- Gary Payton – Q (Likely to Play)
- Andre Iguodala – Q (Likely to Play)
I’m expecting everyone listed on the injury report to play this evening so value is going to be hard to come by on this slate. Keep an eye out for that Warriors starting line-up but I anticipate Kevon Looney to continue starting as the last man in that Warriors starting five.
Strategy
I must say I don’t play tournaments much for Showdown as I stick to cash games, but tonight I plan on making somewhere between 20-50 line-ups for GPPs. The rotations are getting condensed at this time of year so it can be difficult to get different in GPPs. I don’t mind having some dupes on my line-ups but we do want to get off the massive cash line-up trains in GPPs. Try to find a lower owned captain play that has some upside and also lets you fit multiple studs in your build. I put in my own projections tonight and my optimal line-up could potentially be somewhat contrarian which is always good to see. I’m getting Otto Porter as my optimal captain mainly because I like him in this match-up and he helps fit in all the other studs.
Plays
I really like the match-up for Marcus Smart in this series and he’s now had 3 days off to rest his ankle so I’m expecting Smart to be close to 100% tonight. He’s priced at $8,200 on DK, which is reasonable and gives you some savings off the highest priced studs should you want to use Smart at Captain. In this match-up with Golden State over the last 2 years Smart has performed well putting up 1.08 fantasy points per minute which is .18 above his normal average. Smart will be needed defensively for all the minutes he can handle with the Warriors having so much firepower in the back-court. He also isn’t expected to get too chalky as I expect Tatum, Curry and Jaylen Brown to soak up a lot of Captain ownership.
The other play I like that I briefly touched on above is Otto Porter Jr. This is mainly a price play as Otto is priced at $4,000 on DK. Otto is coming back from a foot injury, but I do expect about 20 minutes from Otto tonight with the potential for more should this game go small. Surprisingly, Otto is around a fantasy point per minute producer this year and has historically been right around his averages against this Boston team. Otto is the cheapest safe value we have on this slate as I just don’t trust the minutes for Payton Pritchard or Gary Payton (they are the only plays cheaper than Otto that are expected to see any minutes tonight).
Fades
In this Finals series I don’t like any of the big men at these prices. I’ll state my case against each below:
- Al Horford has played terrible in this match-up this year and I expect Draymond to put the clamps down on him.
- Robert Williams I don’t expect to see big minutes as I anticipate this series going small.
- Kevon Looney is priced all the way up at $7,400 and could easily only play 20 minutes in this match-up, as I expect the Warriors to close with Poole or Otto over him.
- Draymond Green would be my favorite play of the Bigs, but he also hasn’t played well in this match-up historically and I can see Horford and Draymond shutting each other down offensively. Draymond also always has foul risk/ejection risk and I expect him to foul out or get ejected in at least 1-2 games in this series, which is something we need to account for when building line-ups and projections, but at a discounted $6,800 price tag I see a case for sprinkling him in the Flex spots if the ownership doesn’t get out of hand.
My main theme for tonight is going with more balanced builds in GPPs that don’t start with Curry or Tatum at Captain. My second theme throughout my line-ups is bumping up guard and wing projections as I don’t like the big men in this series. There are a lot of mid-range plays that have tons of upside and let you build a more balanced roster. Starting at Captain with Poole, Klay, Wiggins or Smart gives you a little more salary to play with on a slate without much value and will also help differentiate your line-ups a bit.
I’m excited for this NBA Finals match-up and have some 60 to 1 tickets on the Celtics, so I’ll be pulling for them in this series. These showdown slates throughout the Finals should be fun and if there’s overlay that will be the main edge I’ll try to exploit on this slate. Let’s toast to the end of a great NBA Season.
Max
