Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Ish Smith
Smith has played well in the bubble, averaging 13.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists (28.3 fantasy points) in 26.5 minutes per game. He struggled in 22 minutes against the Indiana Pacers but has scored 28+ fantasy points in each of his other 3 games. Smith has yet to light it up from the field, suggesting he comes with more upside than he has displayed thus far. He has also played 27+ minutes in 3 of his 4 restart games with Washington making it clear his role will be a bit bigger than it was throughout the regular season.
Smith gets an elite matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. They rank third in the NBA in pace and 21st in defensive rating. They have also struggled defensively since the restart. Smith is expected to see minutes in the high-20s tonight but he could break 30 if he’s playing well. This is the fast-paced, high scoring type of matchup that Smith will thrive in and I don’t believe we’ve seen his true upside in the bubble at this point.
Ja Morant
Morant has looked dominant in four games since the restart. He’s averaging 19.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 9.3 assists (42.2 fantasy points) in 38.2 minutes per game. Morant has also scored 44+ fantasy points in 3 of his 4 games. He’s locked into major minutes as the Memphis Grizzlies rely on him to run their offense. He also boasts triple-double upside, posting a 25/9/9 line against the San Antonio Spurs, although he has only even double-doubled once in the bubble.
Morant gets a tough matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who rank 21st in the NBA in pace and eighth in defensive rating. With that being said, defense hasn’t been a major part of the NBA restart for the majority of teams. With Jaren Jackson Jr., Tyus Jones, and Justise Winslow all out, Morant will continue to play around 40 minutes while taking over the offense. It’s a bit surprising that his ownership is projected so low with only five games on the slate but there are a few elite matchups to take advantage of, and Morant isn’t in one of them.
Bigs
Rui Hachimura
Hachimura has struggled from the field, shooting only 36.4% through 4 games. With that being said, he’s averaging 11.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists (26.2 fantasy points) in 33.4 minutes per game in the bubble. He shot well in only 1 game so far, scoring 32 fantasy points in 30 minutes against the Phoenix Suns. His ability to add assists and rebounds at a relatively consistent level is encouraging to his upside, as he can explode once his shot is falling, as well.
Hachimura gets a great matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, which has already been outlined above in the Ish Smith recommendation. Hachimura is expected to find minutes in the mid-30s tonight, although he played 39 minutes in his last game and Washington doesn’t have anything to lose by giving him major minutes. He’s an athletic big that will benefit from the pace of this game and could find a few easy scoring opportunities in transition. Hachimura isn’t a safe option but he boasts a major role in the rotation and the Wizards have been willing to play through him more. If his shot is falling in an offensive game, he comes with plenty of upside.
Kyle Anderson
Anderson is only averaging 25.2 minutes per game in the bubble. He’s also averaging 7.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists (20.0 fantasy points) in that time. Anderson has played 30 and 29 minutes in his last 2 games, scoring 25.75 and 19.25 fantasy points. On the season, he’s averaging a healthy 0.88 fantasy points per minute, and it seems as if his 19.25 fantasy point performance will be the outlier rather than the expected.
Anderson gets a tough matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, which has been outlined in the Ja Morant recommendation. Anderson is expected to play around 30 minutes again tonight with Jaren Jackson Jr. out for the season. He has dominated Oklahoma City this season, as well, averaging 19.8 fantasy points in only 13.4 minutes per game. The rate is unsustainable but shows he can find success against this defense. In the first game without Jackson, the majority of people used Brandon Clarke over Anderson, which will likely happen again tonight. Clarke is a fine play, but Anderson will be in a great leverage spot again.
SuperDraft
Derrick Favors (1.75x)
Favors has struggled quite a bit in the bubble averaging 5.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assist in 25.0 minutes per game. He has flashed his upside though, scoring 26.25 fantasy points in only 21 minutes against the Los Angeles Clippers. Favors has found success in limited minutes on the season, as well. He certainly comes with risk, but he boasts double-double potential in limited minutes.
Favors gets arguably the best matchup on the board. He’ll face off against the Washington Wizards, who rank fifth in the NBA in pace and last in defensive rating. They have also been one of the worst teams in the NBA against opposing centers. Favors is expected to find minutes in the mid-20s tonight. He doesn’t come with the pure upside of players like Joel Embiid, but his 1.75x multiplier gives him elite upside, even in 25-27 minutes.
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