Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bogdanovic was playing a larger role in the Sacramento Kings rotation before the season was suspended and that role has followed him to the bubble. Through 2 games, he’s averaging 18.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.5 steals (31.8 fantasy points) in 31.5 minutes per game. Bogdanovic is primarily a scorer and it seems he’s benefitting from the high scoring outputs in the bubble. It’s only a matter of time before he flashes 50+ fantasy point upside again.
Bogdanovic gets a plus matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who rank 17th in the NBA in pace and defensive rating. His role in the offense is expected to stay the same, giving him 30-35 minutes tonight. Bogdanovic will continue to take double-digit shot attempts while adding a few rebounds, assists, and steals each night. His scoring looks relatively safe without the pressure of the fans, making him a great option on this slate. With his projected lower ownership, he’s slightly better for tournaments.
Chris Chiozza
Chiozza was the fantasy darling in his first game, burning everyone with 7.75 fantasy points in 17 minutes. He saw 21 minutes in his next game, producing 26.5 fantasy points. DraftKings did the right thing by pricing up the Brooklyn Nets players, but Chiozza still comes with significantly more upside than his price would suggest. For the Nets, he’s averaging 16.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 1.3 steals (34.2 fantasy points) on a per-35 minute basis. He also flashed 25+ fantasy point upside in limited minutes.
Chiozza will face off against the Milwaukee Bucks today. They lead the NBA in pace but also lead the league in defensive rating. With Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, and Jarrett Allen resting today, Chiozza will be forced into 25+ minutes. More importantly, he’ll be forced into a bigger role in the offense. He hasn’t been locked into big minutes with Brooklyn but he can easily exceed value if they opt to give him 30+ minutes in this game.
Bigs
Paul George
George has looked outstanding since the restart, averaging 29.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 3.0 steals (45.3 fantasy points) in 30.0 minutes per game. He needed only 26 minutes to score 43.25 fantasy points against the New Orleans Pelicans. This should come as no surprise, as George is averaging 38.3 fantasy points in only 29.1 minutes per game this season. His shot is falling in the bubble, and that is likely to be the case in another plus matchup.
George gets a great matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who rank ninth in the NBA in pace and 18th in defensive rating. Assuming the game stays close, George is expected to play around 35 minutes tonight. If the game isn’t close, he likely had a hand in that and will already have performed well in limited minutes. In 2 matchups, George is only averaging 29.8 fantasy points against Phoenix, but he’s also averaging only 26.3 minutes per game in those contests. It isn’t often George is projected to relatively low ownership, and we can take advantage of that tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic
Nurkic didn’t play in the original 2019 season because of an injury, but he has looked elite in the bubble. He’s averaging 24.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.5 blocks, and 2.0 steals (52.5 fantasy points) in 32.4 minutes per game. He also has yet to get a double-double boost on DraftKings, recording 9 rebounds in each game. Nurkic is no longer a cheap option, but the only thing that may stop him tonight is the matchup.
Nurkic plays the Houston Rockets, who love playing a small-ball lineup. They rank fourth in the NBA in pace and 16th in defensive rating. Nurkic should easily be able to score in the paint while flashing elite rebounding potential tonight. The only issue is if Portland opts to run a small-ball lineup to matchup Houston. I expect them to at least try to play through Nurkic early on and use their size to give Houston problems. If that’s the case, Nurkic will see 30+ minutes again tonight and could record his first double-double. He certainly comes with quite a bit of risk, but the reward is one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
SuperDraft
Malcolm Brogdon (1.6x)
Brogdon looked great in his first game back, scoring 20 points with 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal. He played 35 minutes and was a clear focal point of the offense. Brogdon has flashed versatility all season, though, averaging a 16.4/4.8/7.1 line in 30.4 minutes per game. He’s a player that comes with quiet triple-double upside at the guard position.
Brogdon gets a tough matchup against the Orlando Magic today. They rank 26th in the NBA in pace and 11th in defensive rating. He scored 19 points with 5 rebounds, 8 assists, and 1 steal in 29.2 minutes against them in their only matchup this season, though. Brogdon is expected to see 30+ minutes again tonight, but he could lose some usage if Victor Oladipo suits up. He’ll be one of the higher owned players on most DFS sites, but you can play anyone you want on SuperDraft, allowing him to go overlooked. He comes with tremendous upside with a 1.6x multiplier, though.
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