Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Dejounte Murray
Murray struggled with fouls in his first game back, scoring 21.5 fantasy points in only 21 minutes. He saw 34 minutes in his last game against the Memphis Grizzlies, flashing his true upside with 44 fantasy points. Murray has been an elite per-minute player in 2019, averaging 15.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 2.4 steals on a per-36 minute basis. He’s averaging a dominant 1.11 fantasy points per minute on the season.
Murray gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers. They rank 19th in the NBA in pace and sixth in defensive rating. With that being said, defense hasn’t been a major part of the restart. Murray is expected to play 30+ minutes tonight with LaMarcus Aldridge out and Marco Belinelli and Bryn Forbes questionable. Murray will garner some ownership tonight because there are only five games, but it will be far too little for his upside in tournaments.
Mike Conley
Similarly to his season, Conley has seen mixed results through two games in the bubble. He scored 31.25 fantasy points against the New Orleans Pelicans before scoring only 21.5 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Conley has dealt with injuries throughout the 2019 season but is still averaging 13.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4.3 assists (26.2 fantasy points) in 28.4 minutes per game. He’s finally healthy and boasts more upside than he has flashed in the bubble.
Conly will face off against the Los Angeles Lakers, who rank 11th in the NBA in pace and third in defensive rating. It’s far from an elite matchup, but they rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards. Conley is expected to play 30+ minutes for the Utah Jazz tonight, as he won’t need limited minutes because of lingering injuries after getting a few months off. He isn’t always featured in the offense, but recently saw 16 shot attempts against New Orleans. He’s extremely cheap for possessing 40+ fantasy point upside, and he’ll likely go overlooked after struggling to produce against an outstanding Oklahoma City defense.
Bigs
Paul Millsap
Millsap struggled with only 20.5 fantasy points in a blowout loss to the Miami Heat in his first game back. That game started getting out of hand early in the second half, though. Millsap found plenty of success in 2019, averaging 11.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.6 assists (24.7 fantasy points) in only 24.3 minutes per game. His 1.02 fantasy points per game don’t match his sub-$5K price tag tonight.
Millsap gets a bad matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. They rank 21st in the NBA in pace and eighth in defensive rating. Millsap is expected to find minutes in the high-20s or low-30s, though. He’s going to be locked into a big role in the rotation with Gary Harris and Will Barton out. Jamal Murray also looks unlikely to play today. His ownership should stay relatively low between the matchup and his first game back but Millsap comes with elite upside because of his ability to contribute in multiple categories.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jackson has looked outstanding early in the restart, averaging 27.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals (37.8 fantasy points) in 39.1 minutes per game. He isn’t your normal big man, as he focuses heavily on scoring and blocks while occasionally producing more than a couple of rebounds in a game. Jackson has notoriously struggled with fouls in his career, but that hasn’t been the case early on, as he played 35+ minutes in each of his games back. His blocks are likely to take a dip as he seems to be playing at a safer level but the trade-off is more minutes on the court.
Jackson gets a great matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank third in the NBA in pace and 21st in defensive rating. The Memphis Grizzlies seem willing to give Jackson as many minutes as he can handle, so he’ll likely see 35+ minutes once again tonight, assuming he stays out of foul trouble. Jackson isn’t likely to go completely overlooked, especially on a smaller slate, but there are a few power forwards that could steal his ownership, causing him to make a great tournament option.
SuperDraft
Myles Turner (1.6x)
Turner burned fantasy players in his first game back, recording 6 fouls in only 20 minutes. He posted 15.5 fantasy points in that game. Turner has performed well throughout the season, though averaging 11.8 points 6.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 2.2 blocks in 29.3 minutes per game. He possesses elite upside in this matchup.
Turner gets a great matchup against the Washington Wizards tonight. They rank fifth in the NBA in pace and 30th in defensive rating. They are also one of the worst teams in the NBA against centers. Turner is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight without Domantas Sabonis in the lineup. He’ll be a chalky option on most DFS sites, but that may not be the case on SuperDraft. You can only play one center and most will likely lean toward elite options like Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid. Turner gets the best matchup on the board, though, and gets an elite 1.6x multiplier.
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