Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Tyler Herro
Herro has flashed in the NBA bubble this season. He’s averaging 16.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.8 assists (25.9 fantasy points) in 31.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Herro has posted 26+ fantasy points in each of his 3 games against the Indiana Pacers in the playoffs. He also comes with more upside than he has flashed, scoring 45.5 and 51 fantasy points against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns, respectively, prior to the start of the playoffs.
Herro gets a matchup against Indiana tonight. The Pacers ranked ninth in the bubble in pace and third in defensive rating. Herro has faced off against Indiana 6 times this season, averaging 15.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists (27.5 fantasy points) in only 28.2 minutes per game. He’s expected to find 30+ minutes in the game tonight. He’s a player that plays down the stretch and he has yet to put together a full game with his scoring and peripheral stats, giving him added upside that has not been displayed in the playoffs.
Justin Holiday
Holiday has seen plenty of ups and downs since the NBA restart. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 9.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.0 block, and 1.8 steals (22.0 fantasy points) in 29.1 minutes per game. Holiday is averaging 21.9 fantasy points in 31.0 minutes per game in the playoffs. He has also flashed over his last 5 games, scoring 28.75 and 35 fantasy points in a pair of those games.
Holiday gets a matchup against the Miami Heat once again. They ranked 20th in the bubble in pace and ninth in defensive rating. Through 7 matchups this season, Holiday is averaging 9.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.6 steals (20.7 fantasy points) in 27.0 minutes per game against Miami. Holiday has played 29+ minutes in each of his first 3 games in this series, and he’s expected to play roughly 32 minutes again tonight. He comes with 30+ fantasy point upside for a low price tag because of his steal potential, although his price tag is a bit too cheap for him to destroy your lineups in 30-35 minutes.
Bigs
Danuel House
House has caught fire in recent games. He’s averaging 14.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists (28.3 fantasy points) in 36.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. House has played 38 and 42 minutes in his last 2 games, scoring 30.5 and 36.25 fantasy points. He averaged only 16.9 fantasy points per game over his 3 games prior to that, though, which could keep his ownership low tonight.
House continues to get a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. They ranked 17th in the NBA bubble in pace and second in defensive rating through the play-in games. House has struggled in 6 matchups against Oklahoma City this season, averaging only 11.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists (23.5 fantasy points) in 35.0 minutes per game. It’s a bit odd to see House being projected for low ownership after scoring 30+ fantasy points in each of his last 2 games. He’s expected to find 35+ minutes once again on this slate. He certainly comes with some risk in this matchup, but he also comes with tremendous upside for a reasonable price tag.
Myles Turner
Turner continues to produce for the Indiana Pacers. He’s averaging 13.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 3.7 blocks (35.3 fantasy points) in 34.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Turner has taken his game to the next step, scoring 38.5 and 39 fantasy points in his last 2 games. He also recently flashed elite upside, scoring 40.5 fantasy points in only 28 minutes against the Houston Rockets.
Turner gets a matchup against the Miami Heat, which has already been outlined in the Justin Holiday recommendation. Turner has seen a few ups and downs against Miami’s tough defense this season. He’s averaging 12.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.5 blocks (29.6 fantasy points) in 30.3 minutes per game against them. Turner has taken on a larger role with Domantas Sabonis out, though, and he’s coming off of a 15/12 double-double. Turner also brings elite upside into this game because of his block upside. Turner will likely garner lower ownership because of the matchup against Miami, but I feel comfortable going back to the well with this pick.
SuperDraft
Goran Dragic (1.6x)
Dragic has caught fire in the NBA playoffs. He’s averaging 22.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.3 steals in 33.5 minutes per game in 3 matchups against the Indiana Pacers. Dragic has been an extremely efficient scorer, but he has also been running the offense at times. His ability to contribute in multiple categories increases his upside on any given night.
Dragic gets a matchup against Indiana, which has already been outlined in the Tyler Herro recommendation. On the season, he’s averaging 18.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Dragic is likely going to be a chalky option on most DFS sites, but that may not be the case on SuperDraft. Still, he owns a 1.6x multiplier and makes an elite option.
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