Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Reggie Jackson
Jackson hasn’t performed well in the NBA bubble, averaging only 7.0 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists (14.6 fantasy points) in 21.6 minutes over the last 10 days. His 0.68 fantasy points per minute in those contests are significantly lower than his 0.95 fantasy points per minute on the season. Jackson has seen 20+ minutes in 6 games in the bubble, averaging 23.0 fantasy points per game. He also scored 18.5 fantasy points in 26 minutes in his last contest.
Jackson gets a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks tonight. They rank 18th in the bubble in pace and 21st in defensive rating. Jackson has struggled against them in limited minutes this season, averaging 6.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.0 assist (10.6 fantasy points) in 19.1 minutes per game. He’s expected to find minutes in the mid-20s once again tonight, though, with Patrick Beverley doubtful to play. Jackson is near the minimum price, and likely to hit value even if he struggles. If his shot is falling, he comes with tremendous upside for his price tag.
Seth Curry
Curry has seen mixed results throughout his time in the bubble. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 12.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.0 assist (19.3 fantasy points) in 26.3 minutes per game. Curry hasn’t flashed the same upside he did outside of the bubble, such as his 37.25 fantasy point performance against the Minnesota Wolves just 10 games ago. He has scored 23+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games, though.
Curry gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, who rank 21st in the bubble in pace and eighth in defensive rating. In 4 games, Curry is averaging 12.5 points and 2.0 rebounds (18.0 fantasy points) in 24.2 minutes per game against Los Angeles this season. He’s a player that relies heavily on scoring, which is the trait that gives him tremendous upside, as well. He was chalk two nights ago, hit value, and his price only increased $300. It’s odd that he’s projected for low ownership tonight, but I’ll take my chances on the sharpshooter.
Bigs
Josh Richardson
Richardson is only averaging 12.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists (21.1 fantasy points) in 28.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Those numbers are skewed by an 8.25 fantasy point performance in a meaningless game against the Houston Rockets, though. Richardson has scored 20+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games, though. He also recently posted 50.75 fantasy points against the Portland Blazers.
Richardson gets a matchup against the Boston Celtics tonight. They rank 16th in the bubble in pace and sixth in defensive rating. Richardson has found plenty of success against them this season, though, averaging 19.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists (31.7 fantasy points) in 31.5 minutes per game. Richardson has also posted 26.75 and 28.5 fantasy points against them in the playoffs this season. He’s expected to play minutes in the high-30s tonight after a blowout loss in their last game. I used Richardson in that game, and I’m going back to the well tonight with his recent consistency and elite upside for a reasonable price tag.
Serge Ibaka
Ibaka has only played in 2 games over the last 10 days. He’s averaging 15.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.5 steals (28.4 fantasy points) in 25.4 minutes per game in those contests. Ibaka flashed in the game prior to the playoffs, though, scoring 43 fantasy points in only 25 minutes against the Memphis Grizzlies. He has also flashed 50+ fantasy point upside if he is given extended minutes.
Ibaka gets the best matchup on the slate against the Brooklyn Nets. They rank eighth in the bubble in pace and 18th in defensive rating. Ibaka has found plenty of success against Brooklyn this season, averaging 17.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.3 blocks (34.3 fantasy points) in only 27.5 minutes per game. Ibaka is expected to play around 26 minutes once again tonight, similarly to the way he has been early in this series. He has flashed his upside and downside through 2 games, scoring 19 and 37.75 fantasy points. Ibaka has double-double potential with the ability to add assists, blocks, and steals. He’s an outstanding tournament option on this slate.
SuperDraft
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (1.85x)
Luwawu-Cabarrot has caught fire recently, averaging 21.5 points and 6.0 rebounds in 31.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s flashed 35+ fantasy point upside in recent games, as well. Luwawu-Cabarrot isn’t the safest option, but he was recently inserted into the starting lineup, guaranteeing his minutes. He’s an outstanding scorer who has found his success in the NBA bubble.
Luwawu-Cabarrot gets a matchup against the Toronto Raptors, who rank sixth in the bubble in pace and first in defensive rating. Luwawu-Cabarrot has seen 36 and 33 minutes in his first two games of the series, averaging 21.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assist per game. He gets a 1.85x multiplier, giving him elite upside on this slate.
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