Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Garrett Temple
Temple has caught fire recently, aside from a game against the Boston Celtics. In his last 4 games, excluding the Boston contest, he’s averaging 16.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists (33 fantasy points) in 31.3 minutes per game. Temple flashed near 40 fantasy points upside in those contests. He’s also coming off of a pair of games with 36.5 and 33.5 fantasy points.
Temple gets a tough matchup against the Toronto Raptors today. They rank sixth in the bubble in pace and first in defensive rating. I expect teams to shorten their rotations for the playoffs, similarly to the way the Brooklyn Nets did in their last game. In that game, Temple saw 37 minutes. While I’m not expecting that many, I believe he’ll play roughly 30 minutes tonight, and he comes with plenty of upside, as he has flashed before. Temple is slightly more expensive than Jordan Clarkson, who is going to be one of the highest owned players on the slate. He comes with plenty of upside, though, and makes an outstanding pivot option today.
Kemba Walker
Walker struggled in limited minutes in the bubble. He’s averaging 13.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists (25.3 fantasy points) in 27.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Walker saw more minutes (28 and 32) in his last 2 games, but only posted 31 and 15.25 fantasy points. His shot hasn’t been falling, but that has knocked his price tag to $6.9K. It’s higher than it’s been but significantly lower than a healthy Walker price tag normally is.
Walker gets a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, who rank 14th in the bubble in pace and 17th in defensive rating. They will also be without one of their best defenders in Ben Simmons. There are a number of players that can take the game over for the Boston Celtics, including Walker. He looks fully healthy and will likely find 30+ minutes in this game, assuming it stays close. He could go overlooked because of his recent limitations and struggles, but Walker comes with as much point per dollar upside as anyone on this slate.
Bigs
Jarrett Allen
Allen has seen full minutes in his last three games, and he has been on a tear. He’s averaging 15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.0 blocks (45.0 fantasy points) in 37.1 minutes per game in those contests. Allen nearly triple-doubled against the Sacramento Kings, showing a side of his game that most never knew about. He has also scored 40+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games while flashing 50 fantasy point upside.
Allen gets a matchup against the Toronto Raptors, which has already been outlined as one of the most difficult matchups on the slate. With that being said, Allen is averaging a 6.8/8.5/1.0/1.0/0.5 line (21.9 fantasy points) in only 22.2 minutes per game against them this season. He has been locked into big minutes in the bubble without DeAndre Jordan and I fully expect him to find minutes in the high-30s again today. It’s a bit shocking he’s projected for such low ownership on this slate, but I could see fantasy players gravitating toward Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic. Allen comes with elite upside, though, and his price tag is more than reasonable.
Ivica Zubac
Zubac broke out in the bubble, playing 20+ minutes in 6 of his last 7 games. In those games, he’s averaging 12.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (33.8 fantasy points) in only 24.0 minutes per game. Zubac posted 27+ fantasy points in each of those games, easily exceeding value at his current price tag. He also flashed elite upside, scoring 44.75 fantasy points in a 21/15 double-double against the Dallas Mavericks.
Zubac gets another matchup against the Mavericks tonight. They rank 18th in the bubble in pace and 21st in defensive rating. Throughout the season, Zubac is averaging a 13.7/10.3/0.7/0.3/0.3 line (29.4 fantasy points) in only 20.2 minutes per game against Dallas. He recently posted one of his best games as a pro against them, as well. Zubac does have question marks tonight, though, as Montrezl Harrell is expected to play in this game. Wil Zubac lose minutes? I doubt it. He’s only playing roughly 24 minutes per game, leaving plenty of time for Harrell, who likely isn’t in game shape yet. I expect Zubac to continue his role, especially after performing so well in this matchup earlier in the bubble. He certainly will go overlooked, though, but he’s a cheap source of upside.
SuperDraft
Royce O’Neale (1.75x)
O’Neale found a surprising amount of success through the play-in games. He played 35+ minutes in 4 games, averaging 9.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.3 steals (32.1 fantasy points) in 35.8 minutes per game. O’Neale isn’t a big part of the offense, but he finds other ways to contribute fantasy points. He scored 29+ fantasy points in each of his 4 games with 35+ minutes in the bubble.
O’Neale gets a matchup against the Denver Nuggets, who rank last in the bubble in pace and defensive rating. They owned a solid defense this season, although they are missing a pair of key defenders. The Utah Jazz will be without Mike Conley, though, leaving O’Neale locked into 35+ minutes once again tonight. He isn’t the value option that most will be attacking on SuperDraft, but he comes with 30+ fantasy point upside and gets an elite 1.75x multiplier in this game.
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