Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
T.J. McConnell
McConnell continues to make an outstanding per minute option for the Indiana Pacers. He’s averaging 6.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.4 steals (16.1 fantasy points) in 15.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. McConnell saw 18+ minutes only twice in the bubble, scoring 19.25 and 26.5 fantasy points. On the season, he’s averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute.
McConnell gets a great matchup against the Houston Rockets, who lead the bubble in pace, although they also rank fourth in defensive rating. McConnell saw 22.1 minutes in their only matchup this season, scoring 21 fantasy points. T.J. Warren has been ruled out tonight while a few other players are questionable for Indiana. If either Malcolm Brogdon or Victor Oladipo miss this game, McConnell will likely turn into a chalk option. If they start, though, McConnell will go overlooked, but he could see a larger role, especially if Indiana opts to give their guards a small workload on this slate.
Ben McLemore
McLemore has found success in the bubble, averaging 14.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.0 steal (23.8 fantasy points) in 25.5 minutes per game. He saw 27+ minutes in three consecutive games, averaging 27.8 fantasy points per game in those contests. Most importantly, McLemore is averaging 15.0 shot attempts and 12.0 three-point attempts in those contests. He’s playing a significant role in the offense, and that won’t change today.
McLemore gets a matchup against the Indiana Pacers today. They rank 11th in the bubble in pace and ninth in defensive rating. Russell Westbrook is expected to miss this game while Danuel House is questionable to play tonight. Eric Gordon is expected to return tonight, which could help keep McLemore’s ownership low. I expect him to continue his role, though and find roughly 30 minutes tonight if he can stay out of foul trouble. McLemore has tremendous scoring upside, and he makes an outstanding tournament option on this slate.
Bigs
Doug McDermott
McDermott has seen a limited role since the NBA restart. He’s averaging 4.5 points and 2.8 rebounds (9.3 fantasy points) in 16.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He saw 22 minutes in his last game, though, posting 17.25 fantasy points. McDermott took 11 shots in that contest, flashing his scoring potential. He also flashed prior to the shutdown, scoring 24.25 and 23.25 fantasy points in 19 and 18 minutes.
McDermott gets a matchup against the Houston Rockets, which has been outlined in the T.J. McConnell recommendation. McDermott saw 32.1 minutes in his only matchup against Houston this season, scoring 24.75 fantasy points. He’ll see an expanded role with T.J. Warren out tonight. His role could continue to grow if any of their other starters are ruled out tonight, as well. Indiana could use McDermott’s scoring prowess with Warren sitting, though. JaKarr Sampson is currently projected for more ownership than McDermott, making the latter a great GPP pivot on this slate.
Ivica Zubac
Zubac has seen an expanded role with Montrezl Harrell out since the restart. He’s averaging 14.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists (35.3 fantasy points) in 24.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Zubac has scored 30+ fantasy points in each of his previous 4 games, including a 44.75 fantasy point performance. He’s an elite rebounder, who comes with tremendous upside if his shot is falling because of his double-double potential on any given night.
Zubac gets an interesting matchup against the Denver Nuggets tonight. They rank last in the NBA in pace but they also rank last in defensive rating. In 2 games against Denver this season, Zubac is averaging 19.6 fantasy points in only 20.1 minutes per game. He’s a young player that has seen his game develop more and more. He’s expected to play roughly 25 minutes once again tonight, and he comes with double-double potential in this matchup. Zubac will likely garner some ownership, but he’s expected to go overlooked compared to some of the other centers on this slate. His price tag is still reasonable, and he is a great late-night hammer tonight.
SuperDraft
Aaron Holiday (1.85x)
Holiday hasn’t performed overly well in the NBA bubble but he has been locked into big minutes. He’s averaging 10.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.0 steal (22.9 fantasy points) in 34.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Holiday has flashed upside, though, scoring 32.5 and 39.75 fantasy points against the Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers. He’s a versatile option that could be used more in the offense tonight.
Holiday gets a matchup against the Houston Rockets. This matchup has been outlined under the T.J. McConnell recommendation. Holiday will be locked into big minutes without T.J. Warren in the lineup. He could also see a few extra shots. He could turn into the focal point of the offense if Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo are ruled out tonight. Holiday isn’t an elite player, though, which could cause him to go overlooked on SuperDraft. Still, he boasts elite upside and gets a 1.85x multiplier.
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