Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
JJ Redick
Redick has seen plenty of ups and downs over the last 10 days. He’s averaging 18.2 points, 1.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists (24.6 fantasy points) in 25.6 minutes per game. Redick has played 30+ minutes in each of his last 2 games. His upside was on full display against the San Antonio Spurs, scoring 46.75 fantasy points but his downside was also on display, as he posted only 18 fantasy points against the Washington Wizards.
Redick gets a great matchup against the Sacramento Kings tonight. They rank eighth in the bubble in pace and 21st in defensive rating. The New Orleans Pelicans will be without Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson tonight. That will force Redick into 30+ minutes for the third consecutive game. He’s a player that relies heavily on scoring, making him a risky option, but he’s likely to see double-digit three-point attempts once again. If Redick’s shot is falling, he boasts 45+ fantasy point upside again tonight.
C.J. McCollum
McCollum is averaging 19.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists (38.0 fantasy points) in 39.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has played 39+ minutes in each of his 6 games in the bubble, as well. McCollum has scored 33+ fantasy points in all 6 games, including a pair of games with 48+ fantasy points. He’s a massive part of the offense, averaging 18.2 shot attempts, 7.2 three-point attempts, and 1.7 free throws per game since the restart, and that will continue tonight.
McCollum gets a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who only rank 18th in the bubble in pace. With that being said, they also rank 19th in defensive rating. McCollum is likely to find minutes in the high-30s or low-40s once again tonight, as the Portland Blazers continue to play for their potential spot in the playoffs. Damian Lillard will continue to be the focal point of the offense, but McCollum can contribute points, rebounds, and assists at a high rate, giving him plenty of upside in tournaments.
Bigs
Robert Covington
Covington has looked great through five games in the bubble. He’s averaging 10.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 2.8 steals (34.4 fantasy points) in 36.1 minutes per game. Covington boasts double-double potential with the ability to contribute in each of the five categories. He’s scored 30+ fantasy points in 4 of his 5 games, including a 44.75 fantasy point performance against the Dallas Mavericks in his first game in the restart.
Covington gets a great matchup against the San Antonio Spurs today. They currently rank third in the bubble in pace and 15th in defensive rating. James Harden and Eric Gordon have been ruled out tonight while Danuel House is questionable for this game. Covington has consistently seen 33+ minutes per game since the restart and he could see a few extra minutes in this game. He could also see an extended role in the offense without Harden dominating the ball. It’s a bit surprising he’s going overlooked in this matchup for his price tag, but Covington makes an outstanding option on this slate.
Deandre Ayton
Ayton missed his Corona test on Sunday, leading him to play only 17 minutes against the Oklahoma City Thunder yesterday. Overall, he’s averaging 15.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists (30.6 fantasy points) in only 29.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Ayton’s struggles in the bubble have only come in limited minutes against the Thunder and Dallas Mavericks. In his other 4 games, he’s averaging 42.1 fantasy points in 36.0 minutes per game.
Ayton gets an interesting matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers. They rank 11th in the bubble in pace and 16th in defensive rating. The Sixers will be short-handed with a number of players questionable tonight. They will be without their best two big men in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons tonight. If Al Horford can’t suit up tonight, Ayton will likely matchup against Kyle O’Quinn and Mike Scott for the majority of this game. Ayton is expected to find minutes in the mid-30s tonight, and Philadelphia doesn’t have anyone that will be able to slow down the improving big man. He’s a massive part of the offense and could go overlooked after burning roughly 40% of fantasy players yesterday.
SuperDraft
Bogdan Bogdanovic (1.55x)
Bogdanovic has been a boom or bust option in the bubble. He’s averaging 19.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.0 steal in 31.5 minutes per game. Bogdanovic flashed his upside against the New Orleans Pelicans, scoring 35 points with 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal. He’s a player that relies heavily on scoring but can add a few peripheral stats each night, as well.
Bogdanovic gets a matchup against the Pelicans, who he recently posted his best game against. New Orleans also ranks seventh in the bubble in pace and 11th in defensive rating. Bogdanovic is expected to see minutes in the low- to mid-30s tonight. He’s been shooting well for three consecutive games and should continue that into this contest. Bogdanovic gets an added 1.55x multiplier on SuperDraft and he comes with tremendous upside as a scorer in a plus matchup.
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