Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Jimmy Butler
Butler has only played two games in the bubble because of an injury. He’s averaging 19.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 2.5 steals (40.9 fantasy points) in 31.4 minutes per game in those contests, though. Butler scored 39+ fantasy points in each game, as well, although his price tag doesn’t represent that. He’s the focal point of the offense and that isn’t likely to change in his first game back.
Butler gets a matchup against the Indiana Pacers tonight. They rank 23rd in the NBA in pace and sixth in defensive rating. Butler’s averaging 37.6 fantasy points in 30.3 minutes per game against them this season. He also got into multiple confrontations with T.J. Warren in their last game before Warren was ejected. If there’s one play in the NBA that would take that to heart, it’s Butler. He’s returning from injury today but still expected to see 30+ minutes in this game. His ownership projections are a bit surprising early in the day but I’ll likely be overweight on him regardless of what his ownership ends up at.
J.J. Barea
Barea has only played in 1 game in the bubble, scoring 5.75 fantasy points in 14 minutes. He’s been outstanding on a per-minute basis this season, though. Barea is averaging 7.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists (15.5 fantasy points) in only 14.6 minutes per game. He’s also averaging a 17.4/4.4/8.9 line on a per-36 minute basis this season. Overall, he’s averaging a healthy 1.06 fantasy points per minute.
Barea gets a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz, who rank 22nd in the NBA in pace and 10th in defensive rating this season. He found success in limited minutes against them in their only matchup, scoring 23.75 fantasy points in only 16 minutes. The Dallas Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzinigs, and Dorian Finney-Smith tonight. That leaves plenty of minutes for other options, including Barea. He isn’t likely to see a major role, but he’s currently projected for roughly 20 minutes tonight. That’s more than enough time for him to exceed value at the minimum price tag.
Note: Barea is expected to play roughly 25 mins tonight. He’s no longer a low-owned option but use him. He’s arguably the best play (per dollar) on the slate.
Bigs
Cameron Johnson
Johnson has been a bit of a boom or bust option in the bubble. He’s averaging 13.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.2 assists (29.4 fantasy points) in 33.2 minutes per game. Johnson has flashed, though, scoring 43.5 and 37.5 fantasy points against the Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers. With that being said, he’s also scored 23 or fewer fantasy points in each of his other 3 games during the restart, although he saw limited minutes in 2 of those 3 contests.
Johnson gets a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who could be short-handed once again today. They rank 21st in the NBA in pace and eighth in defensive rating. The majority of Johnson’s struggles have come in limited minutes, but he’s expected to find minutes in the mid-30s tonight. He’s an outstanding shooter who can add rebounds and assists to his totals, as well. Johnson’s inconsistencies, including a 22.75 fantasy point performance against the Miami Heat in his last game, are likely to keep his ownership down a bit, but he comes with tremendous upside for his price tag.
Brook Lopez
Lopez has quietly caught fire through four games in the NBA bubble. He’s averaging 22.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks (39.8 fantasy points) in 31.4 minutes per game. Lopez has the ability to contribute in each of the five categories, and that has allowed him to score 30+ fantasy points in each of his first 4 games during the restart. He has also flashed tremendous upside, scoring 49.75 and 46 fantasy points against the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets, respectively.
Lopez gets a matchup against the Toronto Raptors today. They rank 12th in the NBA in pace and second in defensive rating. The Raptors have also found plenty of success guarding the center this season, but Lopez is averaging 27.4 fantasy points in 27.2 minutes per game in their 2 matchups this season. He certainly comes with risk in this matchup, but his recent hot streak and surprisingly low price tag cannot go overlooked. He can catch fire from deep while adding rebounds and blocks at a high rate. Lopez should be locked into 30+ minutes tonight, making him an outstanding tournament option.
SuperDraft
Tim Hardaway Jr. (1.55x)
Hardaway has seen mixed results in the bubble thus far. He’s averaging 12.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.2 assists in 37.1 minutes per game. Hardaway is coming off of a pair of disappointing games, although he saw 36 and 37 minutes in those contests. He certainly comes with risk, but his scoring upside outweighs them in tournaments.
Hardaway gets a matchup against the Utah Jazz, which has been outlined in the J.J. Barea recommendation. As mentioned above, the Dallas Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, and Dorian Finney-Smith tonight. Hardaway is likely to shoulder the offensive load and he’s a player with tremendous scoring potential, regardless of the matchup. He’ll be locked into 35+ minutes once again tonight, and his 1.55x multiplier on SuperDraft gives him added upside each time he finds a bucket.
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