Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Torrey Craig
Craig is only averaging 17.4 minutes per game for the Denver Nuggets this season. He’s averaging 5.0 points and 3.1 rebounds (12.1 fantasy points) in that time. While .70 fantasy points per minute isn’t spectacular, Craig flashed plenty of upside before the shutdown, scoring 24.25 fantasy points in only 16 minutes against the Toronto Raptors.
He gets a tough matchup against the Miami Heat, who rank 27th in the NBA in pace and 14th in defensive rating. Will Barton and Gary Harris have already been confirmed out for Denver, though, and Craig still is seemingly flying under the radar. Jamal Murray is questionable, but Monte Morris, along with Michael Porter Jr., are the two that are projected to gain ownership. Craig is unlikely to drop 40+ fantasy points, but he’s the minimum price and can easily exceed value in 25+ minutes.
Malcolm Brogdon
Brogdon was enjoying an outstanding 2019 season, averaging 16.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 7.1 assists (34.4 fantasy points) in 30.4 minutes per game. He quietly boasted triple-double potential while playing a large role in the offense. Brogdon was second on the team with a 25.2% usage rating behind only Victor Oladipo who saw limited action. He boasted 50+ fantasy point upside throughout the season, although he may not have quite that ceiling in this matchup.
Brogdon will face off against the Philadelphia 76ers. They rank 19th in the NBA in pace and sixth in defensive rating. In 3 matchups, Brogdon needed only 26.3 minutes per game to average 30.6 fantasy points. Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb have been ruled out, while Brogdon and Victor Oladipo are questionable. If both play, Brogdon could go overlooked on this slate. If Oladipo is out and Brogdon plays, he’ll likely garner quite a bit of ownership. Regardless of Oladipo’s status, Brogdon will be forced into a major role if he’s starting, and hopefully, his ownership doesn’t climb by game time.
Bigs
Kyle Kuzma
Kuzma looked great in his return to the court scoring 16 points with 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 block (31.25 fantasy points) in 32 minutes. On the season, he’s averaging 12.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists (21.7 fantasy points) in only 24.4 minutes per game. Kuzma looked outstanding in the Los Angeles Lakers practices and it looks clear that he’s going to play a bigger role in the rotation during the restart. He boasts tremendous upside, specifically if he’s getting extended run on the court.
Kuzma is another player that gets a tough matchup. He’ll play the Toronto Raptors, who rank 14th in the NBA in pace but second in defensive rating. In their only matchup this season, Kuzma scored 22.75 fantasy points in only 24.2 minutes. He’s expected to find close to 30 minutes tonight, although his price tag dropped from his last game. His ownership could climb by game time, but it’s currently being projected in the single-digits. Ideally, we can take advantage of that if this matchup keeps it lower than it should be.
Royce O’Neale
O’Neale was one of the better options for the Utah Jazz in their first game back. He scored 12 points with 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals (30.75 fantasy points) in 35 minutes. His performance took a backseat to Jordan Clarkson, though, the same way his ownership will tonight. O’Neale has always been locked into big minutes for Utah, as he’s averaging 29.1 minutes per game on the season, but he doesn’t always produce while on the court. With that being said, he’s a cheap source of minutes, who has more than enough upside to exceed value at his current price tag.
O’Neale gets a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who rank 20th in the NBA in pace and eighth in defensive rating. He averaged 15.9 fantasy points in 28.1 minutes per game against OKC this season. The numbers are far from elite, he’s expected to play 30-35 minutes tonight. The ownership will flow elsewhere on this Utah team because of usage ratings, but O’Neale has proven that he can perform well, especially for his current price tag.
SuperDraft
Jordan Clarkson (1.65x)
Clarkson played 35 games with the Utah Jazz this season, averaging 15.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in 25.5 minutes per game. He was expected to take on a larger role with Bojan Bogdanovic out for the restart, and that was the case. In his first game back, Clarkson scored 23 points with 5 rebounds 3 assists, and 2 steals in 32 minutes. His usage rating is expected to sit above 25% once again tonight.
Clarkson gets a tough matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, which has been outlined in the Royce O’Neale recommendation. He’s expected to find 30+ minutes off the bench again tonight, running the second team. SuperDraft allows you to play anyone at guard, making it so Clarkson could go a bit overlooked. He’s an elite option with his 1.65x multiplier, though, and he is a guard that should be used tonight.
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