Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Dejounte Murray
Murray boasts elite upside although he has been limited by his minutes throughout the 2020 season. He averaged 10.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.7 steals (27.5 fantasy points) in only 24.6 minutes per game. Murray flashed his upside prior to the shutdown, playing 30+ minutes in 4 of his last 10 games. He averaged 42.8 fantasy points in those contests. Surprisingly, he only owns a 20.6% usage rating, but he’s a cheap source of triple-double upside.
Murray gets a matchup against the Sacramento Kings, who only rank 23rd in the NBA in pace. They also found success against opposing point guards, helping drive Murray’s ownership down. The San Antonio Spurs will be without a few important pieces to their rotation, leaving Murray to see 30+ minutes in this game. He isn’t priced toward his upside, although the majority of this slate is underpriced today.
Chris Chiozza
DraftKings essentially made the entire slate too cheap, so the egregious price tags of the Brooklyn Nets don’t stick out as much as they should. Chiozza only played 11 games for the Nets, averaging 5.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists in 11.5 minutes per game. He saw extended minutes in his last 5 games before the shutdown, averaging 19.6 fantasy points in 19.2 minutes per game. Chiozza scored 20+ fantasy points in 4 of those games, as well.
He gets a tough matchup against the Orlando Magic, who rank 26th in the NBA in pace and 11th in defensive rating. They have struggled at times against guards, though. Chiozza has flashed the ability to score fantasy points in a hurry, though, and he’s expected to play minutes in the mid-20s tonight. There are so many value options on this slate that Chiozza could go overlooked. He’s one of the higher upside cheap options, though, making him perfect for tournaments tonight.
Bigs
Richaun Holmes
Holmes found plenty of success in 39 games with the Sacramento Kings. He averaged 12.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.4 blocks, and 1.0 steal (29.4 fantasy points) in 28.5 minutes per game. Holmes flashed 55+ fantasy point upside throughout the season, as well. He isn’t a huge part of the offense but is an efficient scorer who possesses double-double potential and can contribute at some level in each of the five categories.
Holmes gets a matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who rank 15th in the NBA in pace and 24th in defensive rating. They will also be without multiple big men in this game. Holmes is expected to play his normal 28-32 minutes after looking in good enough shape after having to re-quarantine in the bubble. He’s thousands of dollars cheaper on this slate than prior to the shutdown. Holmes should garner some ownership, but there are other centers on this slate that will likely be the focal points of fantasy teams today.
Keldon Johnson
It’s the first day, so let’s get weird, right? Johnson only played in 9 games this season, averaging 4.6 points and 1.9 rebounds (9.2 fantasy points) over 10.2 minutes. He saw 21 minutes against the Brooklyn Nets, scoring 21.25 fantasy points. The rookie has been working out and improving during his time off and flashed tremendous upside in scrimmages, including a 21 point performance against the Indiana Pacers.
Johnson gets a matchup against the Sacramento Kings, who we noted like to slow the pace down. Johnson’s minutes are a bit unknown, but he could have played himself into minutes with LaMarcus Aldridge and Trey Lyles out. If Johnson finds 20+ minutes tonight, he could easily exceed value, while allowing you to spend up for guys like Luka Doncic and James Harden. Johnson should strictly be used in large-field GPPs and do not overexpose yourself.
SuperDraft
Troy Brown (1.8x)
Brown found plenty of success this season, averaging 9.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.2 steals (22.6 fantasy points) in 24.5 minutes per game. As is the case for most young players, Brown’s season was inconsistent with flashes of upside. He will be one of the players that the Washington Wizards look to take over their offense with Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans not playing.
Brown gets a great matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who rank ninth in the NBA in pace. They also ranked 19th in defensive rating. Brown is expected to play around 30 minutes tonight, and he’ll be a focal point of the offense. He can score fantasy points in a number of ways, but his 1.8x multiple doesn’t represent that. Brown could go overlooked for some of the bigger names players on this slate, but he comes with tremendous upside and his multiplier makes him even more enticing of a play.
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