Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article and access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
D’Angelo Russell
Russell’s coming off of a successful season between the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Wolves. Over 45 games, he averaged 23.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.1 steals (40.4 fantasy points) in 32.3 minutes per game. Russell was a slightly better scorer with Golden State, although nearly all of his peripherals increased once he was traded to Minnesota.
He gets an interesting matchup against the Detroit Pistons tonight. Detroit ranked 28th in the NBA in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency last season. They made a plethora of moves during the offseason, but Russell should see plenty of time against rookie Killian Hayes tonight. I don’t expect the Pistons to take a massive step forward in terms of defense, especially early in the season. The Wolves are currently -6 point favorites in a game set at 224.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 115.3 points. Russell is the focal point of the offense, posting a team-high 29.5% usage rating last season. He’s expected to see 30+ minutes in this game, and he could get lost in the shuffle of a massive slate tonight.
Markelle Fultz
Fultz needed a change of scenery to finally break out in his third year. He averaged career-highs in points (12.1), assists, (5.1), and steals (1.3) per game in 77 contests with the Orlando Magic. He ended the season averaging 26.0 fantasy points in 27.5 minutes per game.
Fultz gets a tough matchup against the Miami Heat tonight. They ranked 27th in the league in pace and 11th in defensive efficiency last season. Fultz saw mixed results against Miami last year, averaging 25.7 fantasy points in 30.4 minutes per game. Orlando is currently a +5 point underdog in a game set at 216.5 points, and they own an implied team total of 105.8 points. The Magic offense runs through multiple players with Fultz recording a 21.4% usage rating last season. That could increase slightly this season, although his upside comes from his versatility. He’s expected to be locked into 30+ minutes per game this season, and he makes a boom or bust option for a low price tag tonight.
Bigs
Jonas Valanciunas
Valanciunas continues to be a dominant per minute option for the Memphis Grizzlies. He averaged 15.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.1 blocks (35.3 fantasy points) in 26.3 minutes per game last season. Valanciunas also ended last season on a high note, scoring 53.25 and 71.75 fantasy points in 34 and 33 minutes in his final 2 games in the bubble.
Valanciunas gets a matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who ranked 15th in the NBA in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency last season. He found plenty of success against them, as well, averaging 1.37 fantasy points per minute in 4 games. Valanciunas also averaged 5.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road last year. Memphis is a -2 point favorite in a game set at 230 points, and they boast an implied team total of 116 points tonight. Valanciunas’ minutes have been far from guaranteed throughout his career because of his lack of defense, but he’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight. He’s a player that has the ability to break the slate if he gets the minutes, and they look relatively safe tonight with Jaren Jackson Jr. out early in the season.
Darius Bazley
Anyone that watched Bazley in the NBA bubble knows his upside. In the 8 play-in games, he averaged 13.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 27.5 minutes per game. Bazley’s minutes were cut in the playoffs, averaging 6.6 points and 6.7 rebounds in only 18.0 minutes per game. He flashed 45+ fantasy point upside inside the bubble, as well.
Bazley gets a great matchup against the Houston Rockets tonight. They ranked second in the league in pace and 12th in defensive efficiency last season. Bazley found success in limited minutes against Houston in the bubble, though, including a 30.5 fantasy point performance in 26 minutes. Oklahoma City is a +2 point underdog tonight, and they feature an implied team total of 107 points. The Thunder are going through a full rebuild, allowing their offense to run through their starters. Bazley will likely be a key piece of that, and he’s expected to find 30+ minutes per game throughout the season. He’s an athletic big that will benefit from the pace in this game, as well. This could be the last time he’s priced around $5K, and he’s far too cheap for his projected ownership on this slate.
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