Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles and access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
LaMelo Ball
Ball’s quietly heating up, displaying why he was one of the top options in the NBA Draft. He’s averaging 13.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.8 steals (32.4 fantasy points) in only 25.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Ball’s caught fire over his last 4 games, though, averaging 37.6 fantasy points in 29.3 minutes per game. He needed only 29 minutes to post 44.5 fantasy points against the Dallas Mavericks a few games ago, as well.
Ball gets a great matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who surprisingly rank 13th in the NBA in pace, although they also rank 18th in defensive efficiency this season. Ball’s usage rating has been all over the place this season, but it sat around 27% in 2 of his last 3 games, suggesting it could continue to sit in that range with his new role. He’s also worked his way into larger minutes, as he’s expected to see around 30 minutes tonight. Ball’s a versatile player, allowing him to struggle from the field, while still flashing triple-double potential. It won’t be long before he’s the focal point of the Charlotte Hornets rotation, and his ability to contribute in multiple categories makes him an elite option in a great matchup tonight.
Victor Oladipo
Oladipo’s been a consistent option with upside throughout the season. He’s averaging 20.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.2 steals (39.1 fantasy points) in 33.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Oladipo’s also coming off of his best game of the season, scoring 45.75 fantasy points in 36 minutes against the New Orleans Pelicans. Overall, he’s scored 34+ fantasy points in each of his 6 games this season.
Oladipo gets a matchup against the Houston Rockets tonight. They rank 21st in the league in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency early this season. Oladipo’s usage rating is expected to sit around 25% tonight, although it could increase a bit with T.J. Warren and Jeremy Lamb injured. He’s a player that will be locked into minutes in the mid- to high-30s, depending on how the game plays out. It’s a large slate, and Oladipo’s price is on the rise, suggesting he’ll go a bit under-owned tonight. He’s an extremely safe option with more than enough upside for GPPs, though.
Bigs
Kelly Olynyk
Olynyk’s looked outstanding when healthy this season. He’s averaging 10.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.2 steals (25.1 fantasy points) in 25.6 minutes per game through 5 contests. Olynyk’s seen 28+ minutes in each of his last 3 games, as well. He’s averaging 29.6 fantasy points in 28.7 minutes per game over that span, flashing 35 fantasy point upside.
Olynyk gets an interesting matchup against the Boston Celtics tonight. They currently rank 18th in the NBA in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency, struggling significantly more than prior years. Olynyk doesn’t boast elite usage, as it sits below 20% on a nightly basis, but his ability to contribute in each of the five categories on any given night makes up for his lack of a role with the ball in his hands. His minutes look confirmed at this point, as he’ll likely find time in the high-20s once again tonight. Olynyk’s also been better in Miami early this season, where he’s averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute this season. He’s a player that generally gets lost in the shuffle on larger slates, but he still comes with elite upside for his price, and his new power forward eligibility adds to his value tonight.
Richaun Holmes
Holmes’ seen mixed results with inconsistent minutes this season. He’s averaging 12.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.3 steals (28.4 fantasy points) in 28.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days, though. Holmes saw 30+ minutes in 3 of his last 4 games before struggling with fouls against the Golden State Warriors. He averaged 36.9 fantasy points in 33.7 minutes per game in those contests.
Holmes gets a matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who rank second in the league in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. His usage rating is expected to sit around 15%, although it has fluctuated quite a bit early this season. After struggling with fouls against Golden State in his last game, he’s expected to return to 30+ minutes tonight. He’s still far too cheap for his upside, especially in a fast-paced matchup that will allow him to focus on his athleticism for production. Holmes was chalk against the Warriors, burning most fantasy players. That, along with the size of the slate, should be enough to keep his ownership low. He’s an elite tournament option on this slate.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
