Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles and access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander’s seen mixed results through five games this season. He’s averaging 18.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 6.8 assists (37.1 fantasy points) in 33.3 minutes per game. He’s coming off of a pair of bad games, although he posted 40+ fantasy points in each of his first 3 games of the season.
Gilgeous-Alexander gets a matchup against the Miami Heat tonight. They currently rank 15th in the NBA in pace and 16th in defensive efficiency this season, although I expect their defense to get better as the season progresses. Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage dipped in recent games, although it’s expected to sit around 30% tonight – one of the highest on the slate for guards. He’ll continue to find minutes in the mid-30s, leading as the key piece in a rebuild for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Gilgeous-Alexander’s a player that contributes rebounds and assists on a nightly basis, and his upside is tied to his scoring. Although it’s a difficult matchup, he makes an elite tournament option, as a cheaper way to get elite usage.
Cory Joseph
Joseph’s played limited for the Sacramento Kings this season. He’s averaging 8.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.0 steal (17.5 fantasy points) in only 23.5 minutes per game. Joseph saw 28+ minutes in 2 of his 6 games, finding mixed results. He posted 14 fantasy points and 30.75 fantasy points in 28 and 29 minutes, respectively.
Joseph gets an elite matchup against the Golden State Warriors, who currently lead the league in pace while ranking 27th in defensive efficiency. Joseph won’t see a lot of usage, but he does have the ability to contribute rebounds, assists, and steals on a nightly basis. He’s expected to find minutes in the high-20s tonight, as Sacramento will be without Tyrese Haliburton. Joseph is expected to slide into his role, taking on more offensive responsibility. He isn’t an overly safe option, struggling in his last game, although he boasts tremendous upside for his price when his shot is falling. Joseph’s an elite value option on this slate, who is going overlooked at the moment.
Bigs
Gordon Hayward
Hayward’s been the definition of a boom or bust option this season. Through 6 games, he’s averaging 18.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.7 steals (36.5 fantasy points) in 33.5 minutes per game. While the base numbers aren’t overly impressive, Hayward’s scored 45+ fantasy points in 3 of his 6 games. He’s averaging only 25.6 fantasy points per game in the other 3 contests.
Hayward gets a tough matchup on paper against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They rank 12th in the NBA in pace and lead the league in defensive efficiency early this season. With that being said, Hayward posted 47 fantasy points in 38 minutes against them only a couple of nights ago. He boasts a usage rating of around 25%, although it tends to fluctuate on a near-nightly basis. He’s a player that’s expected to play around 35 minutes, but those minutes can bump into the high-30s if the game stays close. Hayward’s inconsistencies will keep his ownership down on this slate, but he comes with elite upside in the mid-price range. He’s a true boom or bust tournament option tonight.
Kelly Olynyk
Olynyk’s seen his role grow in recent games. He’s averaging 8.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.5 steals (23.3 fantasy points) in 25.4 minutes per game. Olynyk totaled 36.5 fantasy points in 45 minutes in his first 2 games of the season before scoring 56.75 fantasy points in 58 minutes over his last 2 games. He’s a player that has struggled with an injury this season, although he’s also benefited from injuries to his teammates.
Olynyk gets a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who currently rank 17th in the NBA in pace and 15th in defensive efficiency. Olynyk only boasts a usage rating in the teens, but his ability to contribute in each of the five categories allows him to find success without the elite usage. With Miami getting healthier, Olynyk is tentatively expected to play around 25 minutes tonight, although he’s seen 29 in each of his last 2 games, showing Miami isn’t afraid to give him more run. He’s absurdly cheap, though, and can easily exceed value in limited minutes at his current price tag. He’s likely to go overlooked after DraftKings listed him as only center eligible. There are a number of elite options at the position tonight, but Olynyk is a great pivot that will give you plenty of salary relief.
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