Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article and access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Trae Young
Young’s struggled quite a bit this season. Through 17 games, he’s averaging 26.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 8.8 assists (46.3 fantasy points) in 34.1 minutes per game. Young’s averaging 57.4 fantasy points per game over the last 10 days, though, as he’s shooting 53.1% from beyond the arc in those contests as opposed to only 35.2% on the season. He’s posted 50+ fantasy points in 6 consecutive games while flashing 65+ fantasy point upside.
Young gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards tonight. They lead the league in pace while ranking second-last in defensive efficiency this season. Washington’s allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros. They’re also giving up nearly a triple-double per game to PGs this season. Young boasts a usage rating north of 30%, although it occasionally tops 40%. He’s expected to find minutes in the mid-30s tonight, as well. Young will garner some ownership tonight, although he’s projecting for surprisingly low ownership at the moment. Regardless of if that creeps up throughout the day, he’s an elite option on this slate.
Darius Garland
Garland’s seen mixed results as he deals with injuries this season. He’s averaging 14.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.0 steal (28.1 fantasy points) in 31.4 minutes per game through 10 contests. Garland quietly averaged 38 fantasy points per game through his first 5 games of the season before suffering a shoulder injury. He scored 26 fantasy points in 31 minutes in his last game, though.
Garland gets a surprisingly difficult matchup against the New York Knicks, who currently rank last in the NBA in pace and seventh in defensive efficiency. He posted 37.25 fantasy points in 37 minutes against them in their only matchup this season. Garland’s usage rating generally sits between 20-25% when he plays full minutes. He’s also healthy at this point, suggesting he’ll find 30+ minutes in this game. Although he hasn’t flashed in January, he still boasts elite upside for his price tag, and he’s an outstanding option tonight.
Bigs
Clint Capela
Capela’s in the midst of a breakout season for the Atlanta Hawks. He’s averaging 13.7 points, 14.5 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 2.3 blocks (40.1 fantasy points) in 29.5 minutes per game through 15 contests. Capela’s been heating up recently, as well, averaging 52.8 fantasy points per game over the last 10 days. He’s coming off of a bad game, but he posted between 45 and 76 fantasy points in each of his 5 games prior to that.
Capela gets a great matchup against the Washington Wizards, who have been outlined as a fast-paced team that struggles defensively this season. Washington’s also allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers, according to Fantasy Pros. They’ve specifically struggled against elite rebounders, such as Capela, who’s averaging 17.3 rebounds per game over his last 6 games. He doesn’t boast an elite usage rating, but he’s a 20/20 threat, who recently triple-doubled with blocks. While that isn’t likely to happen again, it shows his ability to contribute blocks at an elite level on any given night. Capela’s expected to continue to play minutes in the mid-30s tonight, as well. He’ll go overlooked because of his price tag, but he makes an elite pairing with Trae Young in tournaments on this slate.
Marvin Bagley III
Bagley’s performed extremely well throughout the season thus far. Through 17 games, he’s averaging 13.4 points and 8.2 rebounds (27.3 fantasy points) in 26.2 minutes per game. Bagley’s played 29+ minutes in 4 of his last 5 games with the lone exception coming in a blowout win over the Orlando Magic. He’s averaging 32.7 fantasy points per game over that span.
Bagley gets a quietly good matchup against the Toronto Raptors. They currently rank ninth in the league in pace and eighth in defensive efficiency this season. With that being said, they’ve struggled against power forwards thus far. Bagley’s usage rating fluctuates quite a bit, ranging from 13% to 36% throughout the season. He’s expected to return to his normal role tonight, playing 30+ minutes for the Sacramento Kings. He’s a player that relies heavily on scoring and rebounds, which are two aspects Toronto has struggled with this season. Bagley is certainly a risky option tonight, but he’s a bit too cheap for his upside.
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