Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles and access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Evan Fournier
Fournier’s seen mixed results through nine games with the Orlando Magic this season. He’s averaging 18.2 points, 2.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.3 steals (29.1 fantasy points) in 28.2 minutes per game. Since returning from injury, Fournier’s averaging a 22.5/2.5/5.8/1.3 (37.4 fantasy points) line in 32.1 minutes per game. He’s scored 32+ fantasy points in each of those 4 games, as well.
Fournier gets an elite matchup against the Sacramento Kings, who rank 10th in the NBA in pace and last in defensive efficiency this season. Sacramento’s struggled against guards, as well, allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing point and shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros. Fournier’s taken on a larger role with Markelle Fultz injured, as his usage rating’s sat above 25% in 3 of his last 4 games. He’s also expected to continue to find minutes in the low- or mid-30s tonight. Fournier’s a player that tends to go overlooked, especially at his current price tag, but he boasts a massive role in the offense and should find elite success in this matchup.
Lonzo Ball
Ball’s taken a step back with the New Orleans Pelicans this season. He’s averaging 12.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.3 steals (27.1 fantasy points) in 31.5 minutes per game. Ball’s seen inconsistent minutes recently, as well, averaging only 26.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. With that being said, he’s coming off of a 33.5 fantasy point performance and flashed 40+ fantasy point upside in recent games.
Ball gets an ideal matchup against the Washington Wizards tonight. They currently lead the league in pace while ranking 28th in defensive efficiency. Most importantly, Washington’s struggled against versatile point guards, nearly allowing a triple-double per game this season. Ball’s usage rating fluctuates quite a bit, but he’s a player that can contribute in four of the categories at a high level on any given night. He’s also expected to play around 30 minutes tonight. If New Orleans is serious about trading Ball, this is the perfect matchup to showcase his skillset. Still, he’s strictly a tournament option at this point.
Bigs
Jaylen Brown
Brown’s enjoyed an outstanding season thus far. Through 16 games, he’s averaging 27.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.5 steals (43.8 fantasy points) in 32.3 minutes per game. Brown’s quietly posted 36+ fantasy points in 9 of his last 10 games. He’s flashed 60+ fantasy point upside over that span, but more impressively posted 43.25 fantasy points in only 19 minutes against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Brown gets an interesting matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who rank 12th in the NBA in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency this season. Per Fantasy Pros, San Antonio is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season. Brown’s posted a 38% usage rating or better in each of his last 4 games, although that will drop quite a bit with Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker playing tonight. With that being said, Brown is expected to play around 35 minutes, and he’s still a focal point of the offense. Tatum and Walker, who are popping more in projections, will keep Brown’s ownership low on this slate, but the latter comes with elite upside. He’s a great tournament option against San Antonio tonight.
Clint Capela
Capela’s looked great through 14 games this season. He’s averaging 14.1 points, 14.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 2.3 blocks (41.1 fantasy points) in 29.5 minutes per game. Capela’s caught fire over the last 10 days, though, averaging a 20.2/18.6/1.0/4.8/1.4 (58.6 fantasy points) line in 35.5 minutes per game. He’s posted 45+ fantasy points in each of his last 5 games, including a 76 fantasy point triple-double against the Detroit Pistons.
Capela gets a matchup against the Brooklyn Nets tonight. Brooklyn ranks sixth in the league in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency. The Nets feature one of the worst defenses in the NBA against centers, although they struggle more against centers that can stretch the floor. With that being said, Capela’s averaging 29.6 fantasy points in only 24.5 minutes per game against Brooklyn. His usage rating is sitting around 20-25% while playing 30+ minutes on a nightly basis. Capela’s price tag and the size of this slate will keep his ownership low, although he’s one of the best tournament options tonight, assuming he suits up.
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