Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article and access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Alexander-Walker’s performed well in limited minutes this season. He’s averaging 11.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists (18.8 fantasy points) in only 17.0 minutes per game. Alexander-Walker’s played 19+ minutes in 4 games his season, scoring 19+ fantasy points in each of those games. Overall, he’s averaging 29.5 fantasy points in 25.3 minutes per game in those contests.
Alexander-Walker gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. They currently rank 13th in the NBA in pace and first in defensive efficiency this season. Alexander-Walker posted a usage rating of around 35% in his last game, although that’s expected to drop closer to 20% tonight. He won’t play as large of a role in the offense with Zion Williamson returning and Eric Bledsoe possibly playing tonight. Still, Alexander-Walker is expected to play minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight, as he flashed in a larger role in his last game. If Bledsoe is out, Alexander-Walker will become chalk, but he’s an outstanding salary relief option in tournaments regardless of Bledsoe’s status.
Donovan Mitchell
Mitchell’s seen mixed results this season, averaging 23.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4.9 assists (37.3 fantasy points) in 33.3 minutes per game through 11 contests. He’s averaging 40.0 fantasy points per game over the last 10 days, though. Mitchell’s quietly posted 37+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games, including a 52.25 fantasy point performance against the Milwaukee Bucks.
He gets a solid matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who rank 13th in the league in pace and 12th in defensive efficiency this season. Mitchell’s usage rating fluctuates quite a bit, although it generally sits above 30%. That should be the case with Joe Ingles out once again tonight. Mitchell’s expected to play minutes in the mid-30s tonight, as he generally does in close games. He’s an elite scorer, who needs to produce rebounds and assists to hit his ceiling. This is a matchup that Mitchell can add peripheral stats, as Atlanta will be looking to push the pace. He’s been heating up in recent games and boasts elite upside for his current price tag.
Bigs
Aaron Gordon
Gordon’s been on a minute’s restriction for the majority of the season so far. Through 10 games, he’s averaging 14.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 2.8 assists (30.4 fantasy points) in 27.1 minutes per game. Gordon’s been off that restriction for his last pair of games, scoring 44.75 and 32 fantasy points in 35 and 36 minutes. He’s also averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute over the last 10 days.
Gordon gets a matchup against the Boston Celtics tonight. They currently rank 18th in the NBA in pace and 19th in defensive rating. With that being said, Boston is dealing with Covid issues and could be without a few key pieces tonight. Gordon quietly boasts a usage rating of around 25%, playing point forward at times with Markelle Fultz out of the Orlando Magic lineup. He’s a big that comes with triple-double potential, possessing the ability to contribute in each of the five categories, as well. Gordon’s expected to continue to find minutes in the mid-30s, as his restriction is completely off. His price tag doesn’t quite represent that, though, and his ownership will likely stay down for the time being. He’s an outstanding tournament option in this matchup.
Jonas Valanciunas
Valanciunas has seen mixed results through 11 games this season. He’s averaging 14.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.1 blocks (35.1 fantasy points) in only 27.2 minutes per game. Valanciunas is also averaging 33.8 fantasy points in only 25.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. With that being said, he’s played 30 minutes in each of his last 2 games, and he’s coming off of a 50.5 fantasy point performance against the Minnesota Wolves.
Valanciunas gets another elite matchup against Minnesota tonight. The Wolves rank seventh in the league in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. They’re a team that has struggled against centers throughout the season, as well. Valanciunas saw a 28% usage rating in his first matchup against Minnesota, and he could find similar usage tonight. He’s expected to play 30 minutes tonight once again, making him a high upside option. His inconsistent minutes and play will likely keep his ownership low, but this is a matchup that he can find his ceiling in for a reasonable price tag.
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