Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NBA GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article and access to our Discord, click here.
Guards
Max Strus
Strus has seen limited minutes in the NBA throughout his short career. He averaged 20.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 37.4 minutes per game in his final season at DePaul, though. Strus also averaged an 18.2/5.9/3.2 line in 34.9 minutes per game in the G-League last season. He posted 9 fantasy points in 12 minutes in his only game this season.
Strus gets a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, who rank fifth in the NBA in pace and third in defensive efficiency this season. With that being said, they will be without a number of players due to Covid restrictions. Strus is expected to see a usage rating between 20-25% when on the court. His minutes are a bit unknown, although they’re expected to sit around 20 tonight. Strus averaged 16.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists (29.5 fantasy points) in 23.0 minutes per game in the preseason. He’ll be a solid scoring option for the Miami Heat, and he’s likely to go overlooked on a slate with a number of elite salary relief options.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander’s been heating up in recent games. He’s averaging 22.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.4 steals (43.6 fantasy points) in 33.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Gilgeous-Alexander struggled in limited minutes in a blowout against the Miami Heat, but he has posted 50+ fantasy points in each of his last 3 contests.
He gets a great matchup against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They currently rank 13th in the league in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency this season. Gilgeous-Alexander boasts a usage rating in the mid- to high-20% range on a nightly basis. He consistently owns one of the highest usage ratings of any of the guards on this slate. He’ll also continue to play minutes in the mid-30s, as he’s a focal point of the Oklahoma City Thunder rotation. Gilgeous-Alexander’s price is on the rise, although it’s still far too low. He’ll feature some ownership, although he’s likely to go under-owned because of some of the other high-priced options on this slate.
Bigs
Andre Drummond
Drummond’s looked outstanding through 11 games this season. He’s averaging 18.0 points, 15.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.6 steals (47.1 fantasy points) in 31.3 minutes per game. Drummond’s played 35+ minutes in each of his last 3 games, scoring 45+ fantasy points in each of those contests. Overall, he’s averaging 52.4 fantasy points per game over that span.
Drummond gets a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz, who rank 23rd in the NBA in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency this season. He quietly boasts a usage rating north of 30%, as the Cleveland Cavaliers continue to deal with injuries to their guards. Overall, Drummond’s recorded a usage rating between 30% and 39% in each of his last 4 games. He’s expected to find minutes in the mid-30s, as well, although he recently played 41 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks. Drummond’s going a bit overlooked compared to the other centers, as Meyers Leonard will be one of the highest owned players on the slate, leaving Drummond to be used only in the Utility slow.
Doug McDermott
McDermott’s seen mixed results early in the NBA season. He’s averaging 12.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assist (19.0 fantasy points) in 24.1 minutes per game. McDermott scored 25+ fantasy points in 4 of his first 5 games of the season before struggling in the next 4 games. He saw 30 minutes in his last game, though, scoring 31 fantasy points against the Sacramento Kings.
McDermott gets a great matchup against the Golden State Warriors tonight. They rank second in the league in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency. McDermott’s usage rating is expected to sit around 20% tonight. He’s expected to play minutes in the high-20s again tonight with Victor Oladipo unlikely to play and T.J. Warren and Jeremy Lamb out. T.J. McConnell is also out tonight, allowing other players, including McDermott, to take over the offense. The value on this slate will likely go to players that are on teams dealing with Covid issues. McDermott is expected to be locked into big minutes, though, and boasts tremendous scoring potential. He’s an outstanding pivot off of that chalk.
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