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It’s been a great NBA Season as we wind down with Sunday being the end of the regular season. This will be my last article of the season (I may put out some playoff content) and it’ll probably be my last slate of the year since I typically take weekends off. It’s becoming tougher and tougher to play these slates as we are getting some create-a-players popping up on GPP winning rosters. I will say that the edge should be significant for these last few slates if your willing to put in some serious work/research and monitor lineups throughout the night. I thought I’d do a quick season recap with it being my last article of the year.
SEASON RECAP
This was my most profitable season to date but it does feel like the games are getting tougher. I ended this NBA season with a 72% ROI and made $138,700 on the year. Most of this amount was made within 1 week just to show how volatile and how much variance can impact your yearly results. Of the $138,700 amount, $135,000 of that was made through GPPs. This goes to show how tough cash games are becoming. I use to play the majority of my money in head-to-head’s and 50/50s, but those games are getting close to solved in NBA. I’ve had to change my approach and adopt more of a “GPP Bro” mentality. It can be tough as you will lose 80-90% of nights, but we are just playing for a few big hits a year to have a profitable season. I suggest analyzing your results monthly and you should be constantly changing the contests you’re playing based on the results we’re seeing. Hopefully we can continue to make some more cheese throughout the NBA Playoffs and make sure to read my Playoffs Best Ball article to get an edge on those Underdog Fantasy Best Ball contests.
INJURIES
- Lebron James – D
- Anthony Davis – D
- Russell Westbrook – D
- Fred VanVleet – Q
- Evan Mobley – Q
- Gordon Hayward – D
- Grayson Allen – Q
- Maxi Kleber – Q
- Alex Caruso – Q
- Carmelo Anthony – D
- Cory Joseph – Q
- Gabe Vincent – Q
- Lou Williams – Q
- Caleb Martin – Q
- Markieff Morris – Q
- Dwayne Dedmon – Q
- Omar Yurtseven – Q
There actually aren’t too many injuries we’re monitoring for a 9 game slate. The big news we’re waiting on is Fred VanVleet. If he gets ruled out the Raptors are going to look great tonight in a match-up with Houston. The Raptors game starts at 7:30 PM and I’m actually hoping news breaks after lock so we can get an ownership discount on some Raptors plays.
GUARDS
This late in the year we almost always are going to have stars and scrubs slates with so much value that opens up. Tonight in the last game of the night we have a value fest with Oklahoma City facing the Lakers. Both teams have mailed it in and there will be a ton of value options from this game. I suggest leaving a few spots open on all rosters for some plays from this game. At guard we can go right back to Zavier Simpson at a $3,900 price tag. For some reason DraftKings hasn’t increased the prices on a lot of these OKC value options, so we’re unfortunately going to have to play a bunch of these guys once again. Simpson is starting and has played 39 and 44 minutes the last two games. At a $3,900 price tag and playing 40 minutes a night it’s almost impossible for him to fail. He’s averaged 27 fantasy points over those two games (his only two games of the year) so I expect something similar tonight with even room for upside if he starts hitting his shot. He’s one of my favorite value options on the slate. We also have Malik Monk in a great spot again with the Lakers expected to be without Lebron, AD and Westbrook tonight. Monk played 37 minutes last night in this same situation and put up 44 fantasy points. Tonight the Lakers get an even easier match-up, so I’m expecting Monk to light it up assuming he starts at a $5,600 price tag. He seems like close to a lock for cash games but I could see the Lakers changing up their line-up tonight if they maybe want to see how some end of the bench players perform. Be prepared to make some swaps here in the late night hammer. As for spend-ups at Guard – we have Luca Doncic priced at $12,200 who is dominating for Dallas of late. He’s put up 53 fantasy points or more in 7 straight games and really the only knock on him tonight is that they play the Blazers in a game that should blow out. There’s some risk here and with Kyrie priced $2,000 cheaper in a more meaningful game I don’t mind taking the savings a playing Kyrie here in what seems like a must win for Brooklyn.
FORWARDS
At Forward we have another lock button play in Talen Horton-Tucker (assuming he starts). THT played 37 minutes last night and put up 56 fantasy points while taking 28 shots. I don’t see see any way to fade him tonight in a great match-up with the Thunder. I’m thinking that a lot of lineups are going to have 3-4 of the same plays, so it will be tough to get different in GPPs tonight. The other Forward spots have a lot of options. We have Giannis and Durant on the high end of the pricing spectrum and both look great. It again looks like Durant may be lower owned and if that’s the case I’ll side with Durant in GPPs and possibly even cash games. The Nets are in “win now” mode and Durant has played 40+ minutes in 3 of 4 games. The match-up with Cleveland isn’t great but he does seem pretty safe with that high of a minutes floor. The Bucks play Detroit and I could see a blowout here and limited minutes for Giannis. I’ll be riding with KD tonight as one of my favorite spend-up options on the slate. Another Forward play I love that also has Center eligibility is Pascal Siakam. He’s priced up at $9,600 but Nick Nurse continues to run him out for 40 minutes a night. The Raptors play Houston tonight and have a 121 point implied total. Should VanVleet get ruled out again, Siakam looks like a great tournament play and we can even consider him in cash games fresh off a 77 point fantasy outing.
CENTER
For once Center is actually kinda weak on this slate. I see more GPP options than cash plays which means I may use Siakam at Center tonight for the safety. We do have a few value options in Precious Achiuwa and Dwight Howard. Precious started last night and played 40 minutes while putting up 32 fantasy points. Should we get OG and VanVleet out again I see no reason that Precious can’t play big minutes again. He’s close to a fantasy point per minute player on the season and he’s priced all the way down at $4,200 in the nut match-up with Houston. The other value option we have to consider is Dwight Howard. There’s a chance that the Lakers rest him tonight since they have nothing to play for, but should he start we can safely project 25ish minutes from Dwight and he’s an elite fantasy point per minute producer at 1.16 fantasy points per minute on the season with the big 3 of Lebron, AD and Westbrook off the floor. He’s priced at $4,600 and gets a great match-up with OKC so I don’t mind some Dwight in GPPs. He also gives your rosters some flexibility, should he get ruled out after lock we’d have an elite value option in Wenyen Gabriel to plug-in. Watch the news and we’ll need to monitor this Lakers situation all the way till their starting line-up is announced close to 10:00 PM EST.
With so many lock button plays this isn’t the greatest slate to close out the year but there is still money to be made. I’ll be digging in one last time and hopefully I (or one of my readers) can end the season with a bink.
Cash Plays: Malik Monk, Talen Horton-Tucker, Zavier Simpson, Kevin Durant
GPP Plays: Kevin Durant, Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving, Wenyen Gabriel (if Dwight is out)
Max
