Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans love pushing the pace in their games, as they rank fifth in the NBA in pace in 2018. They get a matchup against the Toronto Raptors, who currently rank 16th in the league in pace. New Orleans has also found offensive success, ranking eighth in the NBA in offensive rating thus far. Toronto currently ranks in the same slot in defensive rating this season. The Pelicans are +6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 232 points, but they still feature an implied total of 112.8 points.
Elfrid Payton has one of the most ridiculous price tags on the slate, as there’s no reason his salary should have dropped $700 from only a couple games ago, especially with Jrue Holiday out. Payton is coming off of a bad game, but he’s still averaging 8.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists (30.5 DK points) in 31.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 27+ DK points in eight of his last 10 games, while flashing 45+ DK point upside. Payton gets a tough matchup against Toronto, but he’ll be locked into ball-handling duties and big minutes with Holiday injured. There’s no reason to avoid Payton in cash games tonight. Julius Randle isn’t always the most consistent option, but he makes for a strong play tonight. He is averaging 26.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.2 steals (45.2 DK points) in 35.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Randle has also scored 50+ DK points in four of his last six games, but his price tag doesn’t represent that. In his only matchup against the Raptors this season, he scored 38.5 DK points in 35.2 minutes, but he’ll see a larger role in the offense tonight. Kenrich Williams is cheap enough once again that he can be used to fill out this stack. He has found big minutes in each of his last two games, playing 35 and 34 minutes in those contests. He has also found success in both games, scoring 25.5 and 25.25 DK points, respectively. Williams recently struggled a bit, which has caused his price tag to drop, but he has performed well when given the playing time. He’s expected to find minutes in the mid-30s once again tonight, making him a safe option on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing in one of the fastest paced games on the slate. These two teams currently rank ninth and third in the NBA in pace, respectively. Los Angeles also ranks 12th in the league in offensive rating, while Oklahoma City ranks fifth in the NBA in defensive rating. The Clippers are -2.5 point favorites in a game set at 237.5 points, giving them one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 120 points.
Los Angeles has a few solid options on this slate, but I’ll begin with Patrick Beverley. He has been playing at a high level recently, averaging 11.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals (34.9 DK points) in 33.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has been relatively consistent for his current price tag, while scoring 39+ DK points in three of his last five games. Beverley is no longer strictly a defensive player, but his high-end defense will lock him into big minutes tonight. It’s only a matter of time before his price tag adjusts, and he has been overlooked quite a bit this season. Landry Shamet is another guard that is seemingly going overlooked for Los Angeles. He has caught fire over his last three games, as he’s averaging 17.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists (27.1 DK points) in 31.7 minutes per game. He was able to score 20+ DK points in each of those three games, including a 32.5 DK point performance against the Sacramento Kings. Shamet has only faced off against Oklahoma City once this season, scoring 14 DK points in only 14.3 minutes. He’ll likely see 30+ minutes tonight, and he adds a bit of salary relief to this stack. There are a few options that can fill out the last piece of this puzzle, but I’m siding with the pure upside of Lou Williams. He has been playing well recently, as he’s averaging 19.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.6 steals (34.7 DK points) in 29.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also flashed tremendous upside over his last nine games, scoring 48.25 (2x) and 52.25 DK points in three of those contests. He gets a solid matchup against the Thunder, who he’s averaging 24.8 DK points in only 25.4 minutes per game against this season. If this game stays close, which it is expected to, Williams should see 30+ minutes tonight. He adds a bit more upside to this stack.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Miami Heat
The Miami Heat have been slowing the pace down this season, ranking only 24th in the NBA in pace through 64 games. They get a matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who currently rank 29th in the league in pace. Miami has struggled offensively, ranking 23rd in the NBA in offensive rating, but that may not matter tonight, as Cleveland ranks last in the league in defensive rating. The Heat are -8.5 point favorites in a game set at 214 points, and they own an implied total of 111.3 points tonight.
Justise Winslow has seen inconsistent minutes recently, and that has caused inconsistent production. He’s averaging 14.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.2 steals (32.5 DK points) in 30.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last four games with 30+ minutes, as well. Winslow is playing somewhat of a point forward role for Miami, and this is an ideal matchup for him. In three games against Cleveland this season, Winslow is averaging 40.5 DK points in 32.2 minutes per game. He’s expected to find 30+ minutes once again tonight, making him a high upside option. Kelly Olynyk is another player that comes with tremendous upside. He has scored 45+ DK points in two of his last three games, while also posting a 49 DK point performance against the Phoenix Suns earlier this season. Olynyk’s minutes look safe, regardless of the health of Hassan Whiteside, although there is always a chance that Olynyk could be pulled off the court at any time. Still, Cleveland has struggled at times against bigs this season, and Olynyk comes with undeniable upside. I considered Dwyane Wade here, but I want the minutes upside of Josh Richardson. Richardson has featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, but he’s averaging 15.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists (31.2 DK points) in 36.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 29+ DK points in six of his last seven games, while flashing 40 DK point upside. He also comes with significantly more upside than that, as we know, but he may be limited a bit by Winslow’s control of the offense. Richardson is reasonably priced for his combination of upside and consistency, and he adds another layer to this stack tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Elfrid Payton
I have already outlined Payton above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He’s likely the most mispriced player on the slate, and he could feature the highest ownership of anyone. He simply is an elite value. He’s averaging over 30 DK points per game over the last 10 days, and that average has been brought down by the 18.5 DK point performance in his last game. Payton will be locked into big minutes with Jrue Holiday injured, and he should be used in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Frank Kaminsky
Kaminsky recently returned to the Charlotte Hornets rotation, and he has looked outstanding. Since returning, he’s averaging 17.7 points and 5.7 rebounds (26.4 DK points) in 25.0 minutes per game. He has scored 25+ DK points in each of his three games back, while also finding 23+ minutes in each of those games.
Kaminsky is expected to see similar minutes tonight, and we can expect similar production in a plus matchup against the Washington Wizards. Kaminsky is an athletic big, who will benefit from the uptick in pace, and he’s still entirely too cheap. It’s odd that he’s going slightly overlooked on this slate, as he’s still priced under $4K. He’s a player you can locked into all leagues tonight.
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