Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks have been playing at a below average pace through the 2018 season, ranking 19th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a great matchup against the Washington Wizards, who rank eighth in the league in pace through 63 games. Dallas only ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive rating this season, but that may not matter, as Washington ranks 26th in the league in defensive rating. The Mavs are currently +6 point underdogs in a game set at 233.5 points, but they still feature an implied total of 113.8 points tonight.
Dwight Powell continues to be one of the most underpriced players on the slate. He’s still sub-$6K, but is averaging 16.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.2 steals (34.8 DK points) in 33.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 27+ DK points in each of his six games since the All Star Break, including games with 38.5 and 49 DK points. He gets a matchup against Washington, who has known struggles against opposing bigs this season. Powell is an athletic player that will benefit from the pace in this game, and he is one of the safer players in this stack. Jalen Brunson is an interesting option, who will also likely command ownership tonight. He’s still less than $4K, but he’s starting for Dallas. Surprisingly, he only played 20 minutes in his last game, but he saw 28 and 34 minutes in his two games prior to that. Brunson hasn’t necessarily been an elite fantasy option, but he’s averaging 11.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists (21.0 DK points) in 25.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He also comes with unmatched upside for his price tag, and that simply can’t go overlooked. If he struggled a bit, he won’t sink your teams, while he has the potential to win you cash games if his shot is falling. The final part of this stack is Dirk Nowitzki, who has “struggled” in two consecutive games now. With that being said, he’s still averaging 9.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.6 assists (19.6 DK points) in 23.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 22+ DK points in three of his last five games, and he simply doesn’t need that many to hit value. He’s similar to Brunson where if he struggles, it won’t matter too much, while you have a massive advantage if he’s playing well. Similarly to most nights, this is an absurdly cheap stack, and I’m honestly getting sick of writing these three players up. Hopefully, they see their prices jump for the next slate Dallas is on.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs are in a similar situation to the Dallas Mavericks. They currently rank only 22nd in the NBA in pace, but they get a matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who rank second in the league in the same category. San Antonio has found plenty of offensive success, though, ranking eighth in the NBA in offensive rating through 65 games. The same can’t be said for Atlanta, who ranks 28th in the league in defensive rating this season. The Spurs are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 235.5 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 120.5 points.
There are three easily identifiable options for San Antonio in this game tonight – Derrick White, DeMar DeRozan, and LaMarcus Aldridge. White is finally playing consistent minutes again, and he’s averaging 11.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 2.0 steals (33.8 DK points) in 29.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has played 29+ minutes in each of his last three games, as well, scoring 35+ DK points in each of those contests. Atlanta has known struggled against guards this season, and White should be able to take advantage of that. DeMar DeRozan isn’t the most consistent option, but it’s impossible to argue with his upside. He has scored 48.5, 49.75, and 53.25 DK points in three of his last five games, although he scored 34 and 32.75 DK points in the other two games. He’s a focal point of the San Antonio offense, and he’ll be locked into big minutes tonight. As mentioned above, Atlanta has struggled against guards throughout the season, and this is an ideal matchup for a player like DeRozan. His recent inconsistencies have kept his price tag low, and we can take advantage of that tonight. LaMarcus Aldridge is another player that has featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2018 season, but he is seemingly heating up at the moment. Over his last four games, he’s averaging a healthy 41.8 DK points in 36.8 minutes per game. He has also been an elite scorer, while taking 17+ shot attempts in each of those contests. This game will be extremely high scoring, giving Aldridge plenty of opportunities to find success. This stack isn’t going to come cheap, but it comes with elite upside. It seems as if each of these players are going a bit overlooked at the moment, as well.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Washington Wizards
I have already outlined this game above, as the Washington Wizards will be looking to push the pace, while the Dallas Mavericks have been slowing it down. Washington also ranks 16th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Dallas ranks 15th in the league in defensive rating. The Wizards are -6 point favorites in a game set at 233.5 points, and they own an implied total of 119.8 points tonight.
The Wizards team starts with Bradley Beal, and that’s where this stack will start. He’ll likely feature the most ownership of any Washington player, but he’ll still be relatively low owned compared to some of the other options on this slate. He has looked outstanding recently, averaging 29.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 2.3 steals (52.2 DK points) in 39.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Beal has also scored 50+ DK points in eight of his last 10 games, including three games with 60+ DK points. Beal struggled in his only matchup against Dallas earlier this season, but he has caught fire and owns a significantly larger role in the offense than he did at that point. Tomas Satoransky is a solid player, who simply isn’t looked at that way. He has been extremely consistent, scoring 24+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games. He has also flashed upside over that span, scoring 42.75 and 36.5 DK points against the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks. Furthermore, Satoransky is averaging 29.3 DK points per game in those 10 games. He only played 5.4 minutes in his first matchup against Dallas this season, but he’ll be locked into 30+ minutes tonight. Satoransky can contribute in multiple categories, and he comes with quiet triple-double potential when he’s on top of his game. Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker can be considered to fill out this stack, but I’m siding with Trevor Ariza. Ariza is locked into big minutes on a nightly basis, and he’s averaging 13.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.0 steal (30.8 DK points) in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has been extremely inconsistent recently, but he scored 51 DK points only three games ago against the Brooklyn Nets. Ariza has also faced off against the Mavericks twice this season, averaging 43 DK points in 37 minutes per game. He isn’t a safe option, but he adds plenty of upside to this stack for an extremely reasonable price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Mikal Bridges
Bridges has quietly been performing well recently, as he’s averaging 8.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.2 steals (23.2 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 20+ DK points in each of his last five games, although he has somewhat lacked up. With that being said, we have seen Bridges flash 35+ DK point upside in the right situations.
He’s expected to see around 30 minutes once again tonight, which has been the case in each of his last three games. He also gets a plus matchup against the New York Knicks, who have struggled defensively this season. Bridges only scored 18.25 DK points in 33.2 minutes in his only matchup against the Knicks this season, but he failed to make a single three-point shot in that game. He makes a safe option, who also comes with decent upside for his current price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Alex Len
Len has been the epitome of a boom or bust option this season. He has scored single-digit fantasy points in four of his last six games, although three games were in 13 or fewer minutes. He only scored 9.5 DK points in 21 minutes against the Miami Heat in his last game, though. With that being said, Len scored 48.75 and 46 DK points in 27 and 36 minutes in his two games prior to that. He’s also averaging 1.08 DK points per minute on the season.
Len will be forced into bigger minutes with Dewayne Dedmon doubtful, Omari Spellman out, and John Collins questionable. At the moment, he’s expected to find minutes in the mid- to high-20s, but that could just to the 30s if Collins is out. Len gets a decent matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who have featured an average defense against centers this season. He’s going to feature plenty of ownership, but he’s an elite option for a low price tag tonight.
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