Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season, ranking 26th in the NBA in pace through 64 games. They get a matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who currently rank 21st in the league in pace. Indiana has found offensive success, though, ranking 14th in the NBA in offensive rating this season. This is a plus matchup, as the Chicago Bulls rank 24th in the league in defensive rating in 2018. The Pacers are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 218.5 points, giving them an implied total of 112.5 points tonight.
Domantas Sabonis has been ruled out for tonight, opening value across the Indiana rotation. Myles Turner hasn’t been the safest option recently, but he is expected to find consistent minutes with Sabonis out. While he has struggled since the All Star Break, he has scored 28+ DK points in seven of his last 10 games. He has also scored 40+ DK points in two of those 10 games. Turner has also found plenty of success against the Bulls, who have struggled against centers this season. Through three games, Turner is averaging 14.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 3.7 blocks (32.3 DK points) in 29.1 minutes per game. His inconsistencies have kept his price tag reasonable, and he could be one of the higher owned players on this slate. Wesley Matthews is an extremely cheap option, who has found plenty of consistency recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 16.0 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals (25.3 DK points) in 32.5 minutes per game. He has scored 20+ DK points in each of those games, while nearly flashing 30+ DK point upside. Matthews has only played against Chicago once this season, but he scored 34 DK points in 31.4 minutes on that night. Matthews truly doesn’t come with elite upside on a nightly basis, but he’s more than consistent enough for cash games. Darren Collison, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Thaddeus Young can all be considered here. They have all been more than consistent enough to be used in cash games, and they are all expected to have similar ownership [at this time]. There doesn’t seem to be a wrong choice in this stack at the moment.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic are another team that has been slowing the pace down this season, ranking only 25th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a great matchup against Philadelphia 76ers, who rank seventh in the league in pace through 63 games. Orlando has struggled offensively, ranking only 24th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Philadelphia ranks 12th in the league in defensive rating. The Magic are +3.5 point underdogs in a game set 222.5 points, and they own an implied total of 109.5 points.
Nikola Vucevic will be the highest owned player for Orlando, but there’s simply no reason to avoid him. He has been playing at an elite level recently, averaging 22.5 points, 11.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 1.5 steal (53.2 DK points) in 31.6 minutes per game. He has scored 40+ DK points in each of his last 10 games, and he’s coming off of a 61.25 DK point performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Vucevic has also found plenty of success against Philadelphia this season, as he’s averaging 60.9 DK points in 38.3 minutes per game against them in two matchups. The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic tonight, and there’s no one on their roster that will be able to slow down Vucevic. Aaron Gordon isn’t a safe option, but he possesses the upside we’re looking for tonight. His inconsistent play has kept his price tag relatively low, but he has scored 48.25 and 40.75 DK points in two of his last four games. Gordon has also found tremendous success against Philadelphia, as he’s averaging 18.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.5 blocks, and 1.0 steal (43.3 DK points) in 31.6 minutes per game against them. Philadelphia will be playing with a lack of size tonight, which could create multiple mismatches, including for Gordon. Terrence Ross is another player that is either hit or miss, and there simply hasn’t been an in-between. Over his last five games, he has scored 30+ DK points in three of those games, including a 41.25 DK point performance against the Toronto Raptors. In his other two games, he has posted single-digit fantasy points. Similarly to the other options in this stack, Ross has found some success against Philadelphia, averaging 26.5 DK points in 30.0 minutes per game. Ross’ recent struggles have kept his price tag low, and he adds tremendous upside to a stack that is seemingly going overlooked by most on only a six game slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Bojan Bogdanovic
Bogdanovic has been playing a major role in the Indiana Pacers offense since the injury to Victor Oladipo, and that’s going to be the case tonight. He has been playing at a high level since the All Star Break, averaging 24.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists (35.2 DK points) in 30.5 minutes per game. He has scored 28+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games, including a 53.25 DK point performance against the Minnesota Wolves.
Bogdanovic will continue to be a focal point of the Indiana offense in a plus matchup tonight. He’ll face off against the Chicago Bulls, who have struggled defensively this season. Surprisingly, Bogdanovic is averaging only 21.2 DK points in 33.4 minutes per game against Chicago. With that being said, he’ll be locked into 30+ minutes once again tonight, and his price tag doesn’t match his recent production. He could feature some ownership tonight, but he’s widely been overlooked up until this point.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Mike Scott
Scott is only averaging 15.3 minutes per game on the season, but he’s averaging 5.3 points and 3.2 rebounds (11.9 DK points) per game in that time. He has seen an increased role recently, as he’s averaging 23.2 DK points in 28.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Scott is also coming off of an elite game against the Golden State Warriors, scoring 31.5 DK points in 32 minutes.
Scott will likely be forced into 30+ minutes with Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic injured. Scott also gets a plus matchup against the Orlando Magic, who he’s averaging 0.8 DK points per minute against this season. While Scott isn’t necessarily an elite fantasy player, he’s extremely cheap and will be locked into big minutes. Similarly to Bogdanovic, he’ll feature some ownership tonight, but not nearly as high as it should be.
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