Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks continue to slow down the pace in their games, ranking only 19th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, who currently rank 13th in the league in pace. Dallas has struggled at times offensively, ranking only 20th in the NBA in offensive rating. Brooklyn is in a similar position, though, ranking 18th in the league in defensive rating through 65 games. The Mavs are +5 point underdogs in a game set at 226.5 points, but they still feature an implied total of 110.8 points.
Dwight Powell has been playing at a high level recently, and his price tag is only slowly creeping up. He has played 30+ minutes in each of his last four games, including two games with 37 minutes. Over that span, he’s averaging 15.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.5 steals (33.8 DK points) per game. He has flashed a combination of consistency and upside, scoring 26+ DK points in each of those games, including a 49 DK point performance against the Los Angeles Clippers. Brooklyn has struggled against big men throughout the season, and Powell makes an elite option in cash games tonight. Jalen Brunson has seen an increased role since the All Star Break, as he’s averaging 13.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.0 steal (25.1 DK points) in 27.4 minutes per game since then. He hasn’t been overly consistent, but his low price tag allows that to go overlooked, especially when he has scored 41.75 and 34.5 DK points in two of those five games. Brunson is expected to see around 30 minutes tonight, making him a great option for a sub-$4K price tag. Dirk Nowitzki is another absurdly cheap option, who makes a great play in cash games. Since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 9.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists (19.7 DK points) in 22.5 minutes per game. He has seen 22+ minutes in each of his last four games, scoring 22+ DK points in three of those games. While he doesn’t come with elite upside, he’s near the minimum price, and has consistently been hitting value. Similarly to Powell, this is a great matchup for Nowitzki, and this stack will also allow you to get some of the higher priced options tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings love pushing the pace in their games, as they lead the NBA in pace this season. They get a matchup against the New York Knicks, who currently rank 16th in the league in pace. Sacramento only ranks 19th in the NBA in offensive rating through 62 games, but New York ranks 28th in the league in defensive rating, suggesting this is a plus matchup for the former. The Kings are -11.5 point favorites in a game set at 230 points, giving them one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 120.8 points.
Buddy Hield’s price tag is on the rise, but it still doesn’t match his recent production. Since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 25.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.6 steals (41.2 DK points) in 34.3 minutes per game. He has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last 10 games, including a pair of games with 50+ DK points. He’s locked into major minutes, and he gets a plus matchup against New York, who has struggled defensively this season. Hield is a safe option, who also comes with elite upside at his price tag. De’Aaron Fox is another player that has caught fire recently. In his five games since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 17.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 8.6 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.2 steals (39.5 DK points) in 33.0 minutes per game. He has scored 36+ DK points in each of those games, as well. Similarly to Hield, New York doesn’t feature anyone that will be able to slow Fox down in this matchup. These two players also add upside because of the facilitator to scorer stack. Willie Cauley-Stein is another option, who makes sense in this game. He has seen 30+ minutes in each of his games without Marvin Bagley, and that will likely be the case again tonight. He only scored 24.25 DK points in the first game before dominating with 41.5 DK points in his last game. When given 30+ minutes, WCS has been relatively consistent, specifically for his current price tag, and he also comes with elite upside. His minutes have been more consistent at home, as well, and Cauley-Stein can quietly be considered in all leagues tonight. While he does add a bit of consistency to this stack, he’s more or less an option that brings tremendous upside to the table for a reasonable price tag.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns have both been playing at an above average pace throughout the 2018 season. These two teams rank sixth and 12th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Milwaukee also ranks third in the league in offensive rating, while Phoenix ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive rating. The Bucks are -12.5 point favorites in a game set at 232.5 points, and they own the highest implied total on the slate at 122.5 points.
Brook Lopez has consistently been overlooked for quite some time, and that seems to be the case again tonight. Since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 12.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 4.2 blocks (31.5 DK points) in 29.6 minutes per game. He has scored 30+ DK points in four of his last five games, including a pair of games with 40+ DK points. Surprisingly, Lopez only scored 21.25 DK points in 32.1 minutes against Phoenix earlier this season, but I expect him to find more success in this game. The Suns have struggled against centers this season, and Lopez makes an extremely high upside option for his current price tag. Nikola Mirotic is far from a consistent option, but his price tag is undeniable. He has played 27 minutes in two of his last three games, scoring 14 and 42 DK points in those games. He’s a solid scorer, who can add a few peripheral stats, as well. Mirotic is expected to find minutes in the mid-20s, and he comes with exceptional upside when given the opportunity to catch and shoot against a weak defense. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe, and Malcolm Brogdon can all be considered to fill out this stack, but I’m siding with Khris Middleton. He has been playing at a high level since the All Star Break, averaging 22.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.8 assists (40.2 DK points) in 32.4 minutes per game since then. He has also scored 40+ DK points in three of his last five games, including a 50.75 DK point performance against the Utah Jazz in his last game. Middleton scored 29.5 DK points in 29.6 minutes against Phoenix earlier this season, but he could be locked into bigger minutes tonight. The majority of the Bucks team can be considered in this stack, and they are seemingly going overlooked because of the spread.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Pat Connaughton
Connaughton has featured plenty of ups and downs this season because of his inconsistent minutes. He has played 25+ minutes in each of his last four games, scoring 20+ DK points in each of those games. Prior to that, he had played 18 or fewer minutes in six consecutive games, scoring single-digit fantasy points in each of those games. He even scored 0 DK points in 16 minutes against the Minnesota Wolves. Still, Connaughton has found plenty of success over his last four contests.
He’s expected to play minutes in the low- to mid-20s tonight, although he could see extra run if this game turns into a blowout. He gets a great matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who he scored 26.25 DK points against in only 21.1 minutes per game. Connaughton will likely be one of the higher owned Milwaukee players tonight, but he still likely won’t feature too much ownership. He can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Harry Giles
Giles hasn’t really seen a major increase in minutes, but his role has changed a bit with the injury to Marvin Bagley. He has only played 17 minutes in his last two games, but he was able to score 25.75 and 30.75 DK points in those games. His role in the offense has also increased, as he took 13 shot attempts in each of those contests, after failing to do so in any of his prior 31 games.
Giles gets a plus matchups against the New York Knicks, who have been running a young rotation. He has yet to play them, but it’s difficult to believe they’ll be able to slow him down if he continues in the role he has been in. Giles is expected to see minutes in the teens or low-20s, and he makes a solid option for his current price tag, although he does come with some risk.
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