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I got a nice welcome back to NBA DFS last night and got crushed in GPPs. Hopefully tonight goes a little better with 11 games on the slate. I’ve been playing both DFS and betting player props of late to help reduce my variance on a nightly basis. The player prop market is somewhat soft as we can find some good value when news drops and even betting some of the in-game props. As I heard CSURAM say, the casino has an edge from the rake but the bettor has an edge in that we can pick out our favorite lines from hundreds of options. Anyway, back to DFS as I’ve spent all morning researching this slate…11 games is just a little too much with all the tanking going on in the NBA these days but let’s dive in.
INJURIES
- Jonas Valanciunas – Q
- Kyle Kuzma – D
- Malcolm Brogdon – D
- Tre Mann – Q
- Jaren Jackson Jr. – Q
- Alperen Sengun – D
- Goga Bitadze – Q
- Deandre Hunter – Q
- Isaiah Jackson – D
- Duncan Robinson – Q
- Cam Johnson – D
- Caleb Martin – Q
- Jamychal Green – Q
- Khem Birch – Q
- Rajon Rondo – D
- Gabe Vincent – Q
- Alex Len – Q
- Jeremy Lamb – Q
- Josh Jackson – Q
- Sterling Brown – D
There’s a long list of injuries as expected on an 11 game slate. Surprisingly this early in the day there aren’t many stand out values but I expect this to change as the day goes on and lineups get announced. Be ready to pivot throughout the day as I expect there to be a lot of tanking shenanigans on this slate. Note: It can be helpful to target teams with something to play for this late in the year.
GUARDS
Currently I’m liking the mid-range plays on this slate. At Guard we have Davion Mitchell getting all the minutes he can handle for the Kings. He’s playing close to 40 minutes a night and gets to face a fast paced Houston team this evening. Over the last month with Sabonis and Fox off the floor, Mitchell has been close to a fantasy point per minute producer and sees a usage bump up to 26%. At a $7,600 price tag he feels safe given the minutes floor and the match-up. Also on the Kings is another well projected play in Donte Divincenzo. Divencenzo has not been starting for the Kings but still typically sees 30+ minutes of playing time. With Sabonis and Fox out he’s around a .9 fantasy point per minute player but he does see a bump with a match-up versus the Rockets. I’m expecting high usage from Mr. Divencenzo tonight and at a $5,300 price tag he looks under priced for cash games. In GPP’s I don’t mind a game stack of Sacramento vs. Houston and bringing it back with either Kevin Porter Jr. or Jalen Green to add some correlation to our lineups.
FORWARDS
I was hoping that Ja’Sean Tate was going to come in really low owned but with Sengun getting ruled out this early I’m guessing Tate’s ownership is going to skyrocket. He’s looking like a great play even if we only project him for 28 minutes. With Wood and Sengun off the floor this year Tate has been at 1.1 fantasy points per minute which is impressive for his price tag. He’s also playing in my favorite game of the night in a fast paced match-up with Sacramento. The price on Tate may be my favorite part about the Tate play as he’s priced at $4,500 on DK. I’ll be playing a lot of Tate tonight in GPPs and potentially in cash games should no additional value open up. The other stand out play at Forward that I expect to be chalky is Kevin Love. He’s priced at $6,900 but we can expect 30+ minutes from Love tonight with both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley out this evening. With those two players off the court, Love is at an elite 1.48 fantasy points per minute rate, so if we give Love anywhere close to 30 minutes tonight he’s going to project as one of the best plays of the slate. Cleveland does play in a slow paced game with the Mavs but I’ll still be getting to Love in this spot as the upside is immense.
CENTER
As almost every slate this year that Denver is on I’ll be trying to get overweight on Nikola Jokic, who I anticipate to be the MVP this year (if you see a line on Jokic MVP odds that’s close to even money I’d bet it heavy – and let me know what book you found it at!). Jokic is the highest priced player on the slate at $12,400 but he’s the best fantasy point per minute producer in basketball and should dominate whomever Indiana decides to start at Center. I’ll be prioritizing Jokic over Luca on this slate but if we do get a ton of value that opens up I don’t mind playing both in cash games. The other Center plays profile more as GPP plays. Isaiah Roby has crazy upside and has already won me $100K this year. Roby played 38 minutes last game and put up 55 fantasy points (although that was against the G-League Blazers). Tonight OKC gets a tougher match-up with Atlanta, but if we get 35 minutes out of Roby he can smash a $6,200 price tag as he’s at 1.17 fantasy points per minute with Shai off the court this year. The other GPP play I like at Center is Mitchell Robinson. He’s priced up at $5,800 but with Nerlens Noel out it’s looking like Mitch Rob could be in line for low to mid 30’s minutes nightly. He’s close to a fantasy point per minute producer and the Knicks play a Charlotte team that plays fast and is bad defensively. Sign me up for some Mitchell Robinson in GPPs.
I’ll leave it at that for now but keep an eye out for more value that will inevitably open up as the day goes on. Please make sure to check out my GPP cores that I post 20-30 minutes before lock. As i dig in on research I’m feeling more confident about this slate and do feel like we can get a pretty big edge on the competition if we are monitoring news throughout the night this late in the year.
Cash Plays: Davion Mitchell, Donte Divincenzo, KJ Martin, Ja’Sean Tate, Kevin Love, Nikola Jokic
GPP Plays: Kevin Porter Jr, Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Roby, Ja’Sean Tate, Jalen Green
Good luck tonight!
Max
