My Core
Terry Rozier- There’s nothing scarier sounding than “Chalk Terry Rozier”, but I can’t seem to get away from him tonight. Not only is Devonte Graham out, but Malik Monk is still suspended and it appears that Dwayne Bacon will remain in the G-League. Rozier was horrible last week when Graham missed, but it’s important to remember that he shot just 2-13 in that contest. His usage rate spikes to 26% with Graham/Monk off the floor, while the Spurs rank bottom-five in defensive efficiency against his position. At only $6,100, he should be worth the ownership on Tuesday night.
Zion Williamson- It appears Zion has transitioned effortlessly to the NBA after missing the first few months of the season, and I actually expect this team to slip into the playoffs as the eighth-seed. Through his first 15 games he is leading the Pels in usage rate and DraftKings points per minute at 31% and 1.28 respectively. He’s been extremely consistent on the offensive end and the Timberwolves come into tonight allowing the second-most rebounds per game. A monster double-double is not out of the question for the future of the league tonight, and he is still priced below $8,000 in salary.
Trey Lyles- If you thought Rozier chalk was intimidating, wait until you find out I’m locking in Trey Lyles next to him! LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl’s injuries have forced Pop’s hand, with Lyles logging 40 and 37 minutes over the last two games. Drew Eubanks started alongside Lyles last night but was ineffective in 17 minutes. He’s shot really well over that two game stretch so we could expect a few more misses on a back-to-back, but the expected minutes and elite matchup should help counteract any regression. The Hornets are one of the worst teams in the league defending big men, and Lyles is athletic enough to have his way even on tired legs.
Note: My core could be affected by the Toronto Raptors news, if both Ibaka and FVV miss again expect Kyle Lowry and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson to jump up my board.
Value Plays
Cody Martin- Martin and his twin brother have stuck together through college at Nevada and now the NBA in Charlotte…and could be the focal point of cash game lineup construction tonight. The numbers aren’t going to blow you away — 0.75 DK points per minute and a measly 14% usage rate — but I’ve already gone over how thin the Hornets could be tonight. He’s logged 30, 25, 23 and 29 minutes over the last four games, and we have him projected for mid-20’s tonight. The Spurs are not a good defensive team, and I am willing to bet on Martin beating value at his price even on a medium-sized slate.
Alec Burks- Burks is actually one of my favorite value plays on this slate, and I’m hoping the amount of moving parts we have keep his ownership low. He’s actually been a DK point per minute player this season, and we have him projected for near 30 minutes tonight with Josh Richardson joining Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid on the sidelines.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
