Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Portland Blazers
The Portland Blazers have been playing at a below average pace throughout the 2018 season, ranking 18th in the NBA in pace through 73 games. They get a matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who rank 20th in the league in pace thus far. With that being said, Portland also ranks fourth in the NBA in offensive rating, while Chicago ranks only 25th in the league in defensive rating. The Blazers are -7 point favorites in a game set at 216 points, giving them an implied total of 111.5 points tonight.
There’s too much chalk on this slate for there to be one full “Chalk Stack,” but Portland makes sense if this is the route you’re looking to take. They’ll be without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, leaving the majority of the offensive duties to fall on Damian Lillard. Lillard has been on fire recently, averaging 31.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 10.6 assists, and 1.4 steals (58.6 DK points) in 38.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also posted 50+ DK points in each of his last five games, including 60+ DK points in three of those contests. He struggled in his only matchup against Chicago this season, but they have been one of the worst teams in the NBA against point guards, and Lillard will need to continue to post elite lines if he wants to hold position for his team in the playoff seeding. Chicago also features one of the worst defenses in the NBA against centers, and Enes Kanter is entirely too cheap. He played 21 minutes in his last game, scoring 31.5 DK points. Through 59 games, he’s averaging 1.25 DK points per minute, and he’s expected to find minutes in the high-20s or low-30s tonight. Kanter played 40.6 minutes in his only matchup against Chicago this season, scoring 65 DK points. While I’m not expecting another outburst like that tonight, Kanter simply needs a decent game to hit value at his current price tag. I don’t expect Seth Curry to garner a ton of ownership tonight with some of the other salary relief options on the slate, but he certainly make sense in a Portland stack. He has been playing bigger minutes recently, and he’s averaging 18.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.3 steals (28.8 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game over his last three games. He has taken over the McCollum role, and he’ll continue to see a solid role in the offense. We’re essentially getting a Lillard/McCollum/Nurkic stack for significantly cheaper tonight, although obviously Curry and Kanter are less talented than the former.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz have both been playing at an above average pace this season. These two teams rank fifth and 14th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Los Angeles has struggled offensively this season, ranking only 22nd in the league in offensive rating through 74 games. Utah, on the other hand, currently ranks second in the NBA in defensive rating this season. The Lakers are +15 point underdogs in a game set at 217.5 points, and they feature an implied total of only 101.3 points tonight.
By the start of the games, Los Angeles could find more ownership, but at the moment, they’re going overlooked. LeBron James is doubtful tonight, and if he rests, there will be plenty of usage and opportunities for other players to step up. It’s a bit surprising that Lance Stephenson is going overlooked, as he’s extremely cheap. He has played 25 minutes in each of his last two games, scoring 28 and 20.25 DK points in those contests. He’s expected to find similar minutes tonight, and he makes a safe option, who also comes with plenty of upside. He has proven that he can facilitate the offense, and that could be his role while on the court tonight. JaVale McGee is finally locked into big minutes, and his production has been unmatched. He’s averaging 23.3 points, 16.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 5.0 blocks (57.3 DK points) in 31.9 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 45+ DK points in each of those three games, while flashing 70+ DK point upside. Utah has struggled against centers throughout the season, and McGee is a high upside option, who could find lower ownership because of players like Enes Kanter and Jonas Valanciunas. Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo also make sense here, but I’m siding with the upside of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He has been locked into big minutes because of injuries to the Lakers backcourt, and he has proven that he can take over the offense. He should continue to see plenty of shot attempts with James out tonight, as well. Caldwell-Pope has posted 43.25, 33, and 50.25 DK points in three of his last four games. His price tag is on the rise, but simply doesn’t match that production at the moment. Stephenson brings consistency for a low price tag, while McGee and KCP add elite upside without costing a ton of salary tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Shaq Harrison
Harrison has been playing at a high level recently, as he’s averaging 13.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 2.7 steals (30.8 DK points) in 37.2 minutes per game over his last three games. He saw a major uptick in playing time because of injuries to Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, and Otto Porter Jr., who are all expected to miss this game tonight, as well.
If they are all ruled out, Harrison will likely find minutes in the mid- to high-30s once again. He gets a solid matchup against the Portland Blazers, who are dealing with multiple injuries of their own. Harrison needed only 14.5 minutes to score 13.75 DK points in their only matchup this season. He’ll make a great salary relief option if he maintains his role tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Enes Kanter
I have already outlined Kanter above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He’s expected to move into the starting rotation with starters minutes because of the injury to Jusuf Nurkic. He’ll also likely make the second offensive option with C.J. McCollum out. Kanter is averaging 19.7 points, 14.6 rebonds, and 2.7 assists (44.9 DK points) on a per-36 minute basis this season. He’s entirely too cheap tonight, and he can be considered in all leagues, especially with an elite matchup against the Chicago Bulls.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
