Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls have been slowing the pace down throughout the 2018 season, ranking only 21st in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Toronto Raptors, who currently rank 15th in the league in pace. Chicago only ranks 28th in the NBA in offensive rating this season, while Toronto ranks eighth in the league in defensive rating through 74 games. The Bulls are currently +13.5 point underdogs in a game set at 219 points, and they feature an implied total of 102.8 points.
Chicago is dealing with a plethora of injuries, as they are expected to be without Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Denzel Valentine, and Chandler Hutchison tonight. Antonio Blakeney is tentatively expected to see his usage rating increase to roughly 26-28% tonight. He has played 27 and 23 minutes in his last two games, scoring only a total of 23 DK points in those games. Blakeney is expected to find minutes in the high-20s tonight, and he’ll be one of the focal points of the Bulls offense. For a near minimum price, Blakeney should become one of the highest owned players on the slate. Lauri Markkanen is going to be the other focal point of the Chicago offense. His numbers don’t look overly impressive recently, but he has scored 34+ DK points in each of his last three games, including a 61.25 DK point performance against the Washington Wizards. Markkanen’s price tag has dropped a bit because of his recent struggles, but he will be a volume scorer tonight. He also posted 38 DK points in his only matchup against Toronto this season. While his recent struggles are a bit of a concern, he’s in an elite spot tonight. Shaq Harrison is a player that is seemingly going overlooked tonight, but he also makes a great option on this slate. He’ll be forced into major minutes tonight, as he played 39 minutes in each of his last two games. He also posted 25.75 and 33.5 DK points in those games. Harrison has played two games against Toronto this season, and he’s averaging 18.9 DK points in only 20.2 minutes per game. He’ll see close to 40 minutes tonight, making him an elite option for a low price tag.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks and New Orleans Pelicans will be playing in the fastest paced game on this slate. These two teams rank second and third in the NBA in pace, respectively. Atlanta only ranks 25th in the league in offensive rating, although New Orleans ranks only 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating. The Hawks are currently -2.5 point favorites in a game set at 241 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 121.8 points.
Atlanta runs a deep rotation, which hurts some of their players values, but they also have a few key pieces to the offense. Trae Young has caught fire once again, and he’s averaging 24.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 8.6 assists (44.3 DK points) in 32.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 40+ DK points in six of his last eight games, including a pair of games with 58.5 DK points. Surprisingly, Young only scored 31.75 DK points in his only matchup against New Orleans this season, but he shot 14.3% from the field in that game, scoring only 10 points. He should be significantly more efficient tonight, adding to his up. John Collins is another player, who is expected to be locked into solid minutes tonight. He has cooled off a bit over his last few games, but he has also flashed tremendous upside, scoring 51 and 64.25 DK points against the Memphis Grizzlies and Brooklyn Nets only a few games ago. He posted 45.5 DK points in 30.2 minutes against New Orleans earlier this season, and he could find similar success. Collins adds quite a bit of upside to this stack tonight. Dewayne Dedmon is another high upside option, who adds some risk to this stack. He has been playing extremely well recently, averaging 11.6 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.4 steals (31.2 DK points) in 26.5 minutes per game. He has also posted 30+ DK points in four of his last five games. He’s only playing minutes in the mid- to high-20s, but that has been more than enough time for Dedmon to find a double-double. He can also contribute in each of the five categories on any given night. He only played 20.2 minutes in his only matchup against the Pelicans this season, scoring 22 DK points, and he comes with significantly more upside tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers and Washington Wizards are two more teams, who will be playing in one of the faster paced games on the slate. These teams rank fifth and ninth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Los Angeles has also struggled offensively, ranking 23rd in the league in offensive rating. The same can be said for Washington defensively, as they rank only 27th in the NBA in defensive rating. The Lakers are -2 point favorites in a game set at 236.5 points, and they own an implied total of 119.3 points.
LeBron James has somewhat seen limited minutes since the Lakers announced that he was going to see a drop in minutes, but even his limited minutes are in the mid-30s. His price tag represents the limitation rather than his actual production. Over the last 10 days, James is averaging 29.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 11.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.0 steal (60.7 DK points) in 35.4 minutes per game. He has posted 50+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games, while flashing 70 DK point upside. James struggled in his only matchup against Washington this season, but he’ll benefit from the pace, and the Wizards simply don’t have anyone that can slow him down. JaVale McGee is seemingly locked into big minutes, and his fantasy production has followed. He has played 29 and 35 minutes in his last two games, scoring 47 and 72 DK points against the Sacramento Kings and Brooklyn Nets. This is another elite matchup for McGee, as Washington has struggled against centers, although they have been better with Thomas Bryant starting. Regardless, McGee is expected to find solid minutes, and he comes with tremendous upside tonight. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been playing significantly larger minutes recently, as he’s averaging 31.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s also averaging 17.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.0 steal (29.3 DK points) per game over that span. Caldwell-Pope isn’t a safe option, but he has scored 31.75 and 50.25 DK points in two of his last three games. He also posted 44 DK points in only 27.3 minutes in his only matchup against Washington this season. Similarly to McGee, Caldwell-Pope adds upside to this stack, but he’ll struggle with consistency.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Shaq Harrison
I have already outlined Harrison above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He’s seemingly going overlooked in favor of Antonio Blakeney and Ryan Arcidiacono. Harrison has played 39 minutes in each of his last two games, though, scoring 25.75 and 33.5 DK points in those games. He’s a player that can play either guard position and small forward, and that guard/forward eligibility adds to his value on DraftKings. He’s an option that can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Thomas Bryant
As mentioned in a previous article, Scott Brooks stated that Thomas Bryant would be starting with Bobby Portis, and he has followed through with that. Bryant has played 36 and 35 minutes in his last two games, scoring 33.25 and 36 DK points in those contests. He has been a dominant option on the season, as well, averaging 1.11 DK points per minute through 64 games.
Bryant is expected to draw the start tonight, and he’s expected to play 30+ minutes once again tonight. He gets a plus matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, who have struggled defensively this season. In his only matchup against his former team, Bryant scored 30.75 and 28.1 minutes. He’s still relatively cheap, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
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