Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors have been playing at an above average pace in 2018, ranking 10th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who rank only 20th in the league in pace. Golden State also leads the NBA in offensive rating, while Dallas ranks 19th in the league in defensive rating. The Warriors are -13.5 point favorites in a game set at 220 points, and they feature an implied total of 116.8 points tonight.
Stephen Curry has been ruled out tonight, which will open minutes for Quinn Cook. He has performed well in limited minutes this season, as he’s averaging 12.1 DK points in only 13.5 minutes per game. Overall, he’s averaging 16.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on a per-36 minute basis this season. Cook is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, and he’s the easiest play on the slate. He’ll feature as much ownership as any player tonight, and he’s a must play in cash games. DeMarcus Cousins is another player that is too cheap tonight. He’s averaging 19.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals (44.1 DK points) in 28.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has posted 40+ DK points in four of his last five games, but he has been playing at a high level for significantly longer than that. Cousins could see a slick uptick in usage with Curry out, giving him even more upside than he has already flashed. Kevin Durant has been struggling quite a bit recently, as he’s averaging only 18.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.0 block (34.3 DK points) in 33.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. His recent struggles have caused his price tag to drop, though, and he’ll be featured in a more prominent role with Curry resting. In three matchups this season, Durant is averaging 50.1 DK points in 37.1 minutes per game against Dallas, and he could find similar success tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks have been playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA this season, ranking second in the league through 73 games. They get a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, who have also been pushing the pace, ranking seventh in the NBA in pace thus far. Atlanta only ranks 24th in the league in offensive rating, though, while Philadelphia ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive rating. The Hawks are +8 point underdogs in a game set at 236.5 points, but they still own an implied total of 114.3 points on this slate.
Trae Young has caught fire once again, as he’s averaging 22.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (40.9 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 40+ DK points in four of his last five games, while also scoring 58.5 DK points against the Brooklyn Nets only a couple games prior to that. Young has struggled in two matchups against Philadelphia this season, but he’s a player that is continuously getting better throughout the season. John Collins is another young player, who is consistently getting better as he plays more minutes in the NBA. He has been playing well recently, as well, averaging 17.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.0 block (36.2 DK points) in 27.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Collins has also flashed elite upside over his last 10 games, posting games with 46.75, 51, 45.5, 64.25, and 43.5 DK points over that span. Collins has only faced off against the Sixers once this season, posting 41.25 DK points in 33.5 minutes. While he hasn’t been the most consistent option recently, Collins makes a great play tonight. Dewayne Dedmon continues to impress when given the playing time. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 9.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.4 steals (29.6 DK points) in only 25.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has played 25+ minutes in three of his last four games, scoring 30+ DK points in each of those games. Dedmon is also coming off of an elite 39.25 DK point performance in 28 minutes against the Utah Jazz. In two matchups against Philadelphia this season, Dedmon is averaging 31.1 DK points in 27.5 minutes per game. He’s expected to find similar minutes in this game, and Dedmon comes with tremendous upside for a relatively low price tag. He should also feature low ownership, and more people focus on Collins and Young on Altanta.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns are two teams that have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season. These two teams currently rank first and 12th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Sacramento also ranks 18th in the league in offensive rating, while Phoenix ranks only 29th in the NBA in defensive rating. The Kings are -10 point favorites in a game set at 230 points, giving them one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 120 points.
Marvin Bagley has looked outstanding in limited minutes since returning from injury. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 20.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.0 block (33.8 DK points) in only 23.3 minutes per game. He’s finally fully healthy, as he has played 28 and 29 minutes in his last two games. In those games, he posted 47.5 and 39.25 DK points. He also dominated Phoenix in their only matchup this season, scoring 46.25 DK points in 31.4 minutes. Bagley’s price tag still represents his minutes limit when it should be representing his pure upside, especially in this matchup. De’Aaron Fox has also been playing at an extremely high level recently. He’s averaging 18.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.4 steals (39.3 DK points) in 31.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Fox has scored 40+ DK points in five of his last seven games, while flashing 50+ DK points over that span. He has also found plenty of success against the Suns this season, as he’s averaging 37.1 DK points in 30.0 minutes per game in three matchups against them. He’s another Kings player that is priced a bit too low, but is still going overlooked tonight. Willie Cauley-Stein has seen extremely inconsistent recently, but he’s still averaging 9.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.2 steals (31.0 DK points) in only 25.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s coming off of 42 DK point performance against the Dallas Mavericks, and he now gets an elite matchup against Phoenix. Through three games, WCS is averaging 1.32 DK points per minute against the Suns. He has also seen more consistent minutes at home this season, meaning he should find minutes in the high-20s or low-30s tonight. This stack comes with tremendous upside, and it’s a bit surprising SacTown is going overlooked again.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Quinn Cook
I have already outlined Cook above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He’s expected to draw the start for a resting Stephen Curry, and he’ll likely find around 30 minutes tonight. Cook is averaging 0.9 DK points per minute on the season, and he should easily exceed value at his minimum price tag. He could be the highest owned player on the slate tonight, but this is a reminder not to avoid him in any leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Thomas Bryant
Scott Brooks recently stated that he’s going to start Bryant and Bobby Portis together. That was the case in their last game, and Bryant posted 36 DK points in 35 minutes in that contest. He has been an elite option on a per minute basis, as he’s averaging 1.11 DK points per minute through 63 games this season.
Bryant will draw the start once again tonight, and he’s expected to play minutes in the high-20s or low-30s tonight. He gets a matchup against the Miami Heat, who he struggled a bit against in his only matchup. Still, Bryant has been an elite fantasy option, and he comes with an extremely low price tag. With his extended minutes tonight, there’s no real reason to avoid Bryant.
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