Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets have been slowing the pace down in their games throughout the season, ranking only 23rd in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Washington Wizards, who currently rank eighth in the league in pace. Denver has found of success on offense, though, ranking fourth in the NBA in offensive rating through 69 games. Washington, on the other hand, ranks only 26th in the league in defensive rating in 2018. The Nuggets are -8.5 point favorites in a game set at 230 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 119.3 points.
Jamal Murray has struggled a bit recently, which has kept his price tag relatively low. Even with his struggles, he’s averaging 17.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals (29.9 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 30+ fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games, as well. Murray has yet to play Washington this season, but they’re a team that is known for struggling against guards, and Murray should find plenty of success in this game. Nikola Jokic is another player that comes with a surprisingly low price tag. He’s averaging 19.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.3 blocks (45.5 DK points) in 31.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Those numbers are a bit misleading, though, as he was on fire prior to that. Washington doesn’t have any player that will be able to keep up with Jokic in the paint, making him an elite option, even with his struggles away from home. Paul Millsap has caught fire over the last 10 days, averaging 20.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists (40.2 DK points) in 32.3 minutes per game. He has scored 35+ DK points in each of his last four games, including a 50 DK point performance against the Dallas Mavericks. Millsap is an athletic big, who will benefit from the pace in this game, and the three main parts of their rotation are a bit too cheap tonight. Generally, I may look for a “safer” stacking option, but with only six games, we will have to take a small amount of risk in cash games.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are a team that has been playing at a slightly below average pace this season, ranking 19th in the NBA in pace through 71 games. They get a matchup against the Sacramento Kings, who currently lead the league in pace. Dallas only ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Sacramento ranks 17th in the league in defensive rating. The Mavericks are +8.5 point underdogs in a game set at 229.5 points, but they still feature an implied total of 110.5 points.
It’s a small slate, which means Luka Doncic will feature some ownership, but tonight isn’t the night to avoid him. He continues to play well, as he’s averaging 22.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (47.8 DK points) in 34.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Doncic has scored 55+ DK points in three of his last five games, including a 66.75 DK point triple-double against the New Orleans Pelicans. Sacramento has struggled against guards, and Doncic could be in line for another triple-double tonight. Dwight Powell is coming off of a bad game, but he’s still averaging 14.6 points and 7.4 rebounds (27.7 DK points) in 33.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 24+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games, while flashing 40+ DK point upside. Powell also posted 18.8 DK points in only 18.2 minutes in his only matchup against Sacramento this season, and he’s expected to find around 30 minutes tonight. Tim Hardaway Jr. has featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, which is kept his price tag reasonable. He has played 34 and 36 minutes in two of his last three games, scoring 34.5 and 32 DK points in those two games. He’s expected to play around 30 minutes tonight, meaning he should see his full minutes and workload. Sacramento has struggled against scoring guards throughout the season, and Hardaway Jr. is known for being a scorer. He certainly adds risk to this play, but he also adds tremendous upside for a low price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Troy Brown
We used Brown the other day, and he rewarded us with 26 DK points in 30 minutes. Prior to that, he was flashing in somewhat of limited minutes. On the season, he’s averaging 0.92 DK points per minute, although he is averaging only 10.2 minutes per game. His role should continue to grow, as the tanking Washington Wizards want to get their young players more NBA action.
Brown’s expected to maintain his current role in the offense, and he could see upwards of 30 minutes once again tonight. He gets a decent matchup against the Denver Nuggets, who have flashed holes in their defense at times this season. Brown will likely feature quite a bit of ownership because of his low price tag, and he can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Josh Jackson
Jackson has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, but he’s beginning to heat back up. He has played 32 and 33 minutes in his last two games, scoring 30.75 and 37.25 DK points in those games. He has also performed well on a per minute basis this season, averaging 0.92 DK points per minute through 72 games.
Jackson is expected to find 30+ minutes once again tonight, giving them plenty of upside. He also comes with consistency if he is provided with that playing time. He gets a decent matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who he looked decent against in their only matchup this season. Jackson makes a strong option in both cash games and tournament on this slate tonight.
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