Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Knicks
The New York Knicks and Utah Jazz have both been playing around an average pace throughout the 2018 season. These two teams rank 17th and 14th in the NBA in pace, respectively. New York features the worst offense in the league in this season, ranking last in the NBA in offensive rating. Utah, on the other hand, ranks second in the league in defensive rating this season. The Knicks are +12 point underdogs in a game set at 209 points, and they own an implied total of only 98.5 points.
The Knicks have plenty working against them tonight, but they have three players that are going to be locked into high ownership. Mario Hezonja recently re-entered the rotation, and he’s averaging 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 2.0 steals (27.9 DK points) in 31.6 minutes per game. He has scored 21.75 and 34 DK points in his two games back, and DraftKings has yet to adjust his price tag. He’s expected to find around 30 minutes tonight, and Hezonja should have no issues exceeding value once again tonight. Dennis Smith Jr. is expected to miss this game, leaving Emmanuel Mudiay to draw another start. He has been playing well recently, averaging 17.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists (28.4 DK points) in 30.7 minutes per game. He only played 22 minutes in his last game, but that was a blowout, and he’s expected to play around 30 minutes once again tonight. When given the court time, Mudiay has been consistent for his current price tag, but he has also flashed tremendous upside. DeAndre Jordan is another player that has performed well over his last four games, averaging 11.0 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists (37.3 DK points) in 29.6 minutes per game. Similarly to Mudiay, Jordan only played limited minutes in his last game, but he had found 51, 40.75, and 38.5 DK points in his three games prior to that. It feels a bit odd recommending New York in a cash game stack, but their players are entirely too cheap to be ignored tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season, ranking eighth in the NBA in pace this far. They get a matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who rank 21st in the league in pace through 72 games. Washington also ranks 13th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Chicago ranks only 25th in the league in defensive rating. The Wizards are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 229 points, giving them an implied total of 116.3 points tonight.
Bradley Beal has been the focal point of the Washington offense since the injury to John Wall. He’s coming off a terrible game against the Utah Jazz, but he’s still averaging 30.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.7 steals (52.5 DK points) in 39.3 minutes per game. Beal is taking 20+ shot attempts on a relatively consistent basis recently, and he has flashed 70 DK point upside. He’s also averaging 50.9 DK points in 36.0 minutes per game against Chicago this season, and he should find similar success tonight. Tomas Satoransky has cooled down quite a bit recently, as he’s averaging 9.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (26.8 DK points) in 33.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. With that being said, he has also recently flashed 45 DK point upside, and Chicago has struggled to defend point guards this season. Satoransky is averaging 27.6 DK points in 33.5 minutes per game against them this season while shooting only 36.8% from the field. He should be a more efficient scorer tonight, adding to his upside. Washington has very little to play for at this point in the season, and they’re letting their first round pick, Troy Brown, find more minutes in the NBA. In his last two games, he has played 25 and 21 minutes, scoring 16 and 14.25 DK points. While his numbers aren’t elite, he shot only 16.7% from the field, suggesting he comes with more upside than he displayed in that game. He also recently posted 24 and 21.25 DK points in only 17 and 18 minutes with both games coming against the Charlotte Hornets. This is a matchup that Brown can take advantage of, and he’s expected to find similar minutes tonight. He’s also near the minimum price tag, meaning he simply doesn’t need an elite game to hit value on this slate. Keep in mind, there are a plethora of great salary relief options tonight, meaning Brown will likely feature extremely low ownership.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans are another team that loves pushing the pace, ranking third in the NBA in pace through 73 games. They get a matchup against the Orlando Magic, who rank 24th in the league in pace this season. New Orleans also ranks 10th in the NBA in offensive rating, although Orlando ranks ninth in the league in defensive rating in 2018. The Pelicans are +7.5 underdogs in a game set at 225 points, but they still feature an implied total of 108.8 points tonight.
It’s mind blowing that we can continue to have Elfrid Payton at low ownership. He has been playing at an elite level with Jrue Holiday out of the lineup, as he’s averaging 15.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 12.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (56.5 DK points) in 36.1 minutes per game without Holiday. He has posted 50+ DK points in each of his five games since the injury to Holiday, while also triple-doubling in each of those contests. Payton also gets a revenge game against his former team, and he’s still entirely too cheap. While he can be used in cash games, his lower ownership makes him an outstanding tournament option. Cheick Diallo won’t feature quite as low of ownership, but it looks as if he is going somewhat overlooked tonight. New Orleans recently stated that they want to play him more down the stretch, and he has played 27 and 25 minutes in his last two games. He has seen somewhat of increased playing time recently, and he’s averaging 1.22 DK points per minute over the last month of play. Diallo is expected to see minutes in the mid-20s once again tonight, and he comes with 35+ DK point upside. He will make a safe option if he truly finds those minutes, but his elite upside for a sub-$4K price tag is what we’re attacking in this stack. Julius Randle is another player, who is going a bit overlooked for his elite upside. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 28.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.2 steals (48.6 DK points) in 35.4 minutes per game. He was in a bit of a cold stretch recently, but he has broken out, scoring 76.75, 43.25, and 51.75 DK points in his last three games. His price tag still represents that cold stretch rather than his recent production, as well. Furthermore, Randle needed only 21.4 minutes to score 30 DK points in his only matchup against Orlando this season, and he’s expected to find minutes in the mid-30s tonight. The Pelicans have a few more players that can be considered here, but the upside of the three outlined above make for the best combination stack for this team.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Shaq Harrison
Harrison has featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, but he has performed relatively well when given the opportunities. He’s averaging 14.2 DK points in only 17.5 minutes per game this season. He has seen his role increase a bit recently, playing 20+ minutes in four of his last five games, including a pair of games with 30+ minutes.
Harrison is expected to find minutes in the mid-20s tonight, which could be enough time for him to hit value. He gets a great matchup against the Washington Wizards, who have struggled against guards this season, and will be pushing the pace in this game. Harrison is near the minimum price, meaning he doesn’t need many fantasy points to hit value. He also comes with solid upside for his price tag, especially in this type of matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Danuel House
House recently re-entered the Houston Rockets rotation, playing 31.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s also averaging 17.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists (26.3 DK points) per game over that span. House has also been a consistent option for his price tag, scoring 25+ DK points in each of his three games back.
House will see similar minutes tonight, as his role isn’t expected to change. He gets a tough matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, but he has found some success against them this season, and he should continue to find consistent production tonight. House makes a strong pivot off of Mario Hezonja in tournament, as the latter will feature quite a bit of ownership. Still, House has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
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