Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks have been playing at a below average pace this season, ranking 19th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, who rank last in the league in pace, though. Memphis has ranks sixth in the NBA in defensive rating, while Dallas ranks only 20th in the league in offensive rating through 61 games. With that being said, the Mavs are -4.5 point favorites in a game set at 214 points. They feature an implied total of 109.3 points tonight.
Dwight Powell has caught fire recently, and it will cause him to be one of the highest owned players on the slate tonight. He’s averaging 17.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (32.9 DK points) in 32.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 27+ DK points in each of his last four games, including a 49 DK point performance against the Los Angeles Clippers two games ago. While the matchup against Memphis looks difficult on paper, they are no longer the dominant defense they were prior to the trade deadline, allowing players like Powell to take advantage of this matchup tonight. Dirk Nowitzki has seen an increase in minutes recently, and that’s expected to continue tonight. He has played 20+ minutes in each of his last three games, and he has scored 22+ DK points in each of those games. Nowitzki has also been a better option in Dallas, where he’s averaging 0.92 DK points per minute, as opposed to 0.73 DK points per game on the road. While Nowitzki isn’t the sexiest pick on the slate, he has consistently been dominating value, and that is expected to be the case again tonight. Luka Doncic isn’t going to feature a ton of ownership, but as my good friend Ben Hossler always says, “[Doncic] can always been used when he’s under $10K on DraftKings.” He has only played two games over the last 10 days, but he’s averaging 27.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 8.5 assists (54.0 DK points) in 32.1 minutes per game. Similarly to Nowitzki, Doncic has been a better option at home, where his fantasy points per minute sit at 1.3. He’s a massive part of the offense, who comes with triple double potential on a nightly basis. He’s always a way to get an edge on your competition in cash games tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets are another team that has been slowing the pace down throughout the 2018 season. Through 61 games, they rank only 24th in the NBA in pace. They get a matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank fifth in the league in pace this season. Denver has found plenty of offensive success, though, ranking fourth in the NBA in offensive rating. New Orleans hasn’t found the same success, though, as they only rank 22nd in the league in defensive rating. The Nuggets are -12.5 point favorites in a game set at 238 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 125.3 points.
Nikola Jokic will likely be the highest owned player for Denver, and for good reason. He has found plenty of success recently, averaging 23.3 points, 12.8 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (52.7 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game. He has featured elite upside recently, scoring 60+ DK points in four of his last eight games. He has also found plenty of success against New Orleans, as he’s averaging 54.3 DK points in 33.2 minutes per game against them this season. Furthermore, Jokic is averaging a healthy 1.75 DK points per minute at home, as opposed to 1.46 DK points per minute on the road. Paul Millsap is another big man for Denver that has looked outstanding recently. He’s averaging 16.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 2.3 steals (39.8 DK points) in 30.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Millsap is coming off of a tough game against the Utah Jazz, but he has scored 55.5, 45.75, and 52.25 DK points in three of his last five contests. He’s another player who has found more success at home, as he’s averaging 1.24 DK points per minute at home, as opposed to 0.95 DK points per minute on the road. Jamal Murray has been a consistent option since the All Star Break, as he’s averaging 17.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.0 steal (33.0 DK points) in 30.4 minutes per game since then. He has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last four games, but he has also flashed 40+ DK point upside recently. Murray is also averaging 34.1 DK points in 33.5 minutes per game against New Orleans this season. He’s a bit too cheap, and adds consistency (and upside) to this stack.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
San Antonio Spurs
Similarly to the two teams above, the San Antonio Spurs have been focused on slowing the pace down this season. They rank only 22nd in the NBA in pace through 63 games. They get a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, though, who currently rank third in the league in pace. Oklahoma City also ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, while San Antonio ranks seventh in the league in offensive rating. The Spurs are -4.5 point favorites in a game set at 230.5 points, and they own one of the higher implied totals on the slate at 117.5 points.
DeMar DeRozan has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, but he has found a ton of success since the All Star Break. Since then, he’s averaging 23.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.5 steals (44.9 DK points) in 34.2 minutes per game. He has flashed elite upside, as well, scoring 49.75, 53.25, and 44 DK points in three of his last four contests. DeRozan has also found success against Oklahoma City this season, as he’s averaging 39.8 DK points in 42.1 minutes per game against them. LaMarcus Aldridge hasn’t been as consistent as DeRozan recently, but he has been heating up over his last pair of that. He owns 38.75 and 47 DK points in those contests, although he has was struggling quite a bit prior to that. Aldridge is another player that has found plenty of success against the Thunder this season, as he’s averaging 56.8 DK points in 40.4 minutes per game against them. Furthermore Aldridge is averaging nearly 7.0 more DK points per game at home, where the game will be played tonight. Derrick White is in an interesting position tonight. He has seen inconsistent minutes recently, which has led to inconsistent production. That has kept his price tag low, though, and he has performed well in each of his last two games. He was able to score 35 and 27.5 DK points in those two games, although he scored fewer than 20 DK points in his two games prior to that. Continuing back even farther, White had scored between 29 and 46 DK points in his five games prior to that two game skid. He’s also averaging 37 DK points in 39.5 minutes per game against Oklahoma City this season. San Antonio isn’t a safe stack, but that isn’t what we need in tournaments.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Dennis Schroder
Schroder has looked solid since the All Star Break, averaging 12.0 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists (25.8 DK points) in 30.6 minutes per game. He has also been heating up over his last two games, scoring 27.25 and 29.75 DK points in those games. Surprisingly, Schroder has been playing at a higher level on the road, where he’s averaging 29.9 DK points per game this season.
He’s expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, and he could see increased usage with Paul George out. Schroder also gets a plus matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who he is averaging 30.1 DK points against in 30.5 minutes per game this season. Schroder makes an extremely safe option with PG13 injured, and he also comes with more than enough upside to be used in GPPs. He can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Dirk Nowitzki
I have already outlined Nowitzki above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He’s simply too cheap for his role in the offense, and he has scored 22+ DK points in three consecutive games. He’s expected to see the same role tonight, and his price tag doesn’t represent that. Nowitzki will likely feature quite a bit of ownership tonight, but there’s very little reason to believe he won’t hit value in this game.
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