Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks are two teams that have been playing around an average pace throughout the 2018 season. These teams currently rank 15th and 17th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Toronto also ranks seventh in the league in offensive rating, while New York ranks only 27th in the NBA in defensive rating. The Raptors are -11.5 points favorites in a game set at 213 points. They feature an implied total of 112.3 points on this larger slate.
Kyle Lowry is currently questionable for the game tonight, while Serge Ibaka is suspended. That opens plenty of value in the Toronto rotation. Marc Gasol has seen increased value with Ibaka suspended, as he has played 37 and 26 minutes in his last two games. He also posted 36.25 and 33.75 DK points in those games, while nearly triple-doubling against the Detroit Pistons. He’s expected to find 30+ minutes tonight, and he posted 1.14 DK points in limited minutes in his only matchup against New York this season. Pascal Siakam is coming off of a surprisingly poor game, but he has looked outstanding recently. He is reasonably priced, while scoring 35+ DK points in seven of his last 10 games, including a 46 DK point performance against the Boston Celtics. Siakam has struggled a bit against the Knicks this season, but he’ll see extra opportunities with Ibaka out. New York has also struggled against bigs this season, and attacking Toronto’s power forward and center combination is a smart cash game play. Fred VanVleet returned from injury in his last game, scoring 25.25 DK points in 31 minutes. He saw his price tag drop strictly from his injury, as he sat at $4.9K prior to then. He’s only averaging 20.6 minutes per game against New York, but he’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight, especially if Lowry is ruled out. VanVleet makes a safe option for his low price tag, but he has also scored 40+ DK points in two of his last 10 games. While the percentage isn’t elite, it shows he comes with tremendous upside, and New York is far from an elite defense. Toronto, along with the Oklahoma City Thunder, are the obvious “Chalk Stacks” tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks have been slowing the pace of their games down this season, ranking only 20th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get an elite matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank fourth in the league in pace through 72 games. Dallas only ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive rating, as well, but that likely won’t matter, as New Orleans ranks 23rd in the league in defensive rating. The Mavs are -5 point favorites in a game set at 232.5 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 118.8 points.
Luka Doncic has been the star of the show for Dallas this season, and that isn’t going to change tonight. He’s a risky option, but that has kept his price tag low for his elite upside. He’s averaging 19.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.3 steals (47.3 DK points) in 34.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also posted 55+ DK points in four of his last nine games, including three of his last five. He also comes with more upside, as he has been close to triple-doubles recently, but hasn’t been able to quite reach them. He’s also averaging 38.1 DK points in 28.6 minutes per game against New Orleans this season, and he’s expected to play around 35 minutes tonight. Dwight Powell has cooled off a bit recently, but New Orleans has struggled against athletic bigs this season. Powell should benefit from the extra opportunities in this game because of the pace. He’s averaging 14.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists (28.0 DK points) in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days, but he also recently flashed 50 DK point upside in multiple games. He has only seen limited minutes against the Pelicans this season, but he’s averaging 1.13 DK points per minute in those games. He’s also expected to find minutes in the mid-30s, making him an outstanding option for a relatively low price tag. Maxi Kleber has seen somewhat of inconsistent minutes recently, but he has flashed tremendous upside. Kleber has scored 39.5, 30.25, and 34.75 DK points in three of his last four games, finding a double-double in each of those contests. He’s another athletic player that will benefit from the uptick in pace he’ll see tonight. Kleber has also found success against New Orleans, as he’s averaging 20.6 DK points in 25.6 minutes per game through three matchups. While his minutes are extremely inconsistent, his price tag is low enough to consider him in all leagues. He also makes this stack a bit more affordable, as Doncic isn’t going to come cheap.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New Orleans Pelicans
This game has been outlined above, and the New Orleans Pelicans will be looking to turn it into a potential track meet. They rank ninth in the NBA in offensive rating this season, as well. Their opponents, the Dallas Mavericks, rank 18th in the league in defensive rating through 69 games. The Pelicans are currently +5 point underdogs in a game set at 232.5 points, but they still feature an implied total of 113.8 points tonight.
It’s a bit shocking that Elfrid Payton is expected to be low owned tonight, but we can take advantage of that. He has taken on a new role with Jrue Holiday injured, and the latter will also miss this game. In four games without Holiday, Payton is averaging 14.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 13.3 assists, and 1.0 steal (57.4 DK points) in 35.8 minutes per game. If you read my Battle of the Bales article, you know that Payton has found a triple-double in each of those games, while posting 50+ DK points in each contest, as well. Anthony Davis continues to be underpriced, even with his limited minutes. He’s averaging 17.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals (40.6 DK points) in 21.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also scored 40+ DK points in four of his last six games. Davis is averaging 68.8 DK points in 36.6 minutes per game against Dallas this season, and he should find 40+ DK points again, even in limited minutes tonight. Cheick Diallo is a salary relief option, who will likely go overlooked on this slate. He’s extremely inconsistent, but it looks as if New Orleans is ready to give him extended minutes. He played 25 minutes in his last game, scoring 30 DK points against the Phoenix Suns. He’s also averaging 1.14 DK points per minute on the season, and he shouldn’t have any issues exceeding value if he’s given the minutes tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Mikal Bridges
Bridges continues to play well, as he’s averaging 7.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.0 steals (22.4 DK points) in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has been relatively consistent, as well, scoring 20+ DK points in seven of his last 10 games. Most importantly, Bridges has seen 40 and 37 minutes in his last two games.
Tyler Johnson, Kelly Oubre, T.J. Warren, and Richaun Holmes have all been ruled out tonight, locking Bridges into minutes in the high-30s once again tonight. He’ll also have to take over as a larger focal point of the offense, and we haven’t truly seen his scoring upside in the NBA yet. He struggled in his only matchup against the Chicago Bulls this season, but they have struggled defensively, and Bridges should find plenty of success in his projected role tonight. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Cheick Diallo
I have already outlined Diallo above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He has been an elite per minute player this season, and he’s finally expected to see bigger minutes. He scored 30 DK points in 25 minutes in his last game, and he gets a great matchup against a tanking Dallas Mavericks team. Diallo isn’t safe enough to be used in cash games, but he’s a strong tournament option.
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