Welcome to our NBA DFS Building Blocks article! Each day, we will dissect injury news and breakdown our favorite plays at each position. We also provide Core Plays nightly for our subscribers, as well as projections and a premium discord channel. You can sign up for access to today’s Core Plays and projections by clicking HERE — and can get access to a single day pass for just $5 HERE. Now, let’s get into today’s slate…
Injuries to Monitor
We received some early news on Monday with Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris getting ruled out for the Clippers, who are already without PG, Kawhi and Norm Powell. This provides bump in both projection and ownership to the ancillary Clippers like Terance Mann, Luke Kennard, Amir Coffey and Brandon Boston. A lot of other players that are out, have been out for some time. We do, however, have some big questionable tags across the league. All of Zach LaVine, LeBron James, Andrew Wiggins, Fred VanVleet and Patrick Beverley are uncertain to play. One of more of these players getting ruled out could shake up the slate entirely, be sure to hop in our free discord to reach out to myself and other analysts about who we would be playing in that instance.
Guard
As I noted above in the injury blurb, the thin rotation of the Clippers is going to present some really chalky value plays on Monday. Both of Luke Kennard and Terance Mann are projecting for over 40% ownership as of writing this, and Brandon Boston isn’t far behind with a 30% number. Most will be stacking this team in cash games which is fine, but I would likely be focusing on just one or two in my tournament lineups — the lower owned the better. Shai Gilegous-Alexander sticks out as my top spend-up, in a fantastic match-up with the Charlotte Hornets. We’ve been on SGA a lot lately, and he’s up to third in the NBA in drives per game over the last 10 games (23).
For tournaments you could consider correlating SGA with Lamelo Ball. We also have some potential for James Harden to pop up later in the evening as a miss risk — Tyrese Maxey would be the big winner there.
Forward
Forward is pretty straightforward for me from a cash game standpoint. We have chalk value in Amir Coffey, who is projected to be 50% owned on DraftKings tonight. Coffey is likely a must play in optimal builds, but can certainly be faded in GPPs. I also like Jaden McDaniels if Pat Beverley misses, he would likely start and be tasked with defending Dejounte Murray. He’s actually over 0.75 fantasy points per minute now, and that number jumps to 0.94 over the last two weeks. The expected match-up with Murray provides a high minutes floor, and he is one of my favorite mid-tier plays on tonight’s slate.
As for spending up, DeMar DeRozan would have to be viewed as the top-overall play here if Zach LaVine is ruled out. He owns a massive 42% usage rate with LaVine off the floor this season. This situation would present a big question about who we prefer in cash games between SGA and DeRozan in similar price ranges.
Center
Center is dominated by the marquee match-up of Nikola Jokic vs Joel Embiid, with the 76ers coming off a hard-fought overtime game on Sunday. These teams haven’t met much in recent years, but we have seen Embiid struggle defensively this season as he takes on an even larger offensive role. This is a statement game for the top two players in the MVP race right now, but I’m going to continue to side with Jokic and his massive 1.7 fantasy point per minute rate. He is the number one play on the slate for me if you can afford him, but I’m expecting a big game from both of them on Monday night.
We also have some potential value here with John Collins questionable. I think Onyeka Okongwu is in play regardless at his price, but that would help the situation with Atlanta not wanting to push Clint Capela on a back-to-back, especially with this big of a spread. Nic Batum is another solid value play in all formats sticking with the Clippers theme, we have him projected for 30 minutes tonight.
Main Lineup Musts: Luke Kennard, Amir Coffey, Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Danilo Gallinari (if Collins out)
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
